Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily column throughout the 2024 baseball season. We've reached the final chapter of the 2024 MLB season with Yankees vs Dodgers in the World Series.
The goal for Opening Pitch remains the same for the Fall Classic: Highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite World Series bets, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
My projections for every World Series game are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our MLB Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best World Series lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and expert picks and preview for Dodgers vs Yankees Game 5 on Wednesday, October 30.
MLB Predictions Wednesday, World Series Expert Picks, Odds, Preview Today, October 30
World Series Futures Update
Below are my updated series moneyline and prop projections for the 2024 World Series before Game 5:
I'd need at least +793 (11.2% implied) to back the Yankees to rally to win this series from a 3-1 deficit. No team to start a World Series down 3-0 had ever forced a Game 6. Only the 2004 Red Sox have completed such a comeback in MLB postseason history. The 2020 Astros are the only team besides the 2004 Red Sox to force a Game 7 in the playoffs after trailing 3-0.
The Dodgers' odds of winning the series 4-1 or covering their -2.5 games spread should match their Game 5 moneyline odds, in addition to the odds for the series to last exactly five games.
Similarly, the Yankees' +2.5 games spread and the odds for the series to go over 5.5 games should match their own Game 5 price. Their odds of covering +1.5 games should mirror the series to surpass 6.5 (both +290 at FanDuel). Additionally, their odds of winning the series should match their odds of winning 4-3 in the correct score or exact result market.
Dodgers vs Yankees Game 5
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 8 -115o / -105u | +122 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +143 | 8 -115o / -105u | -145 |
RHP Jack Flaherty (LAD) vs. RHP Gerrit Cole (NYY)
Game 5 of the World Series is a rematch of Game 1 (with the same projected lineups and starting pitchers) — albeit at a different home venue.
The Dodgers closed as -125 consensus favorites (55.6% implied) in Game 1, compared to my projection of -107 (51.7% implied).
Los Angeles opened as +120 consensus underdogs (45.5% implied) for Game 5 — an adjustment of nearly 10% relative to its Game 1 odds but just 6.2% compared to my Game 1 projection.
The flip in home-field advantage is worth a 6-8% adjustment, so the Dodgers are likely undervalued due to an overadjustment in odds for the same matchup in a different park.
Perhaps books are factoring in regression for Jack Flaherty, who is back on regular rest in Game 5.
Flaherty was electric in Game 1 of the World Series (5 1/3 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 6 K, 38% CSW%) while averaging 93.3 mph on his fastball (max 96.4). Still, that start came on a whole week of rest, the same amount of time he had before Game 1 of the NLCS (he averaged 92.6 mph on his fastball — max 95.1 mph; 28% CSW%) against the Mets.
Flaherty struggled on regular rest in Game 5 against the Mets, failing to record a strikeout while averaging 91.4 mph on his fastball (max 93.9). His arm might be feeling similar fatigue on the same schedule for Game 5 of the World Series.
During the regular season, Flaherty averaged 93.5 mph on his fastball through August but dipped to 91.8 mph in his final two regular-season starts. Combined with the fact that the Yankees balked at his medicals in an agreed-upon trade, it's reasonable to conclude that Flaherty is struggling to get to the finish line (and free agency).
The added rest in October has helped. Still, Flaherty's velocity dipped in the back half of NLCS Game 1. And in the 5th and 6th innings of World Series game 1, his fastball velocity dropped to 92.4 mph across his final 10 four-seam fastballs.
Flaherty reported hamstring tightness after exiting in the sixth inning — his final fastball velocity (88.8 mph) before Giancarlo Stanton homered off his curve suggests something may have been amiss.
Still, the hamstring issue, on top of the arm injury, doesn't give me confidence in Flaherty's usage on Wednesday.
And while the Dodgers burned their long relievers in Game 3, Dave Roberts reserved all of his high-leverage arms to help the Dodgers close out the series in five.
Daniel Hudson, who served up the grand slam to Anthony Volpe in Game 4, pitched for the second consecutive day, alongside Ben Casparius, Brent Honeywell and Landon Knack — each of whom tossed at least 40 pitches.
That leaves righties Michael Kopech, Ryan Brasier, Brusdar Graterol, Blake Treinen, and lefties Anthony Banda and Alex Vesia ready to pitch over half of Wednesday's contest before an off-day.
As a result, I like Flaherty Under 14.5 Outs (+118 at FanDuel) and 4.5 Strikeouts (+115 at DraftKings); those lines both closed at the same prices in Game 1, but you can anticipate reduced usage in Game 5.
Conversely, I'd expect the Yankees to give Gerrit Cole a lengthy leash in his final start of the season — and after Aaron Boone potentially pulled him prematurely in Game 1.
Moreover, the Yankees bullpen is far more fatigued than the Dodgers' relief unit. Tim Hill, Clay Holmes and Mark Leiter Jr. have pitched in three of the past four days, while Luke Weaver recorded four outs and worked for a second consecutive day in Game 5.
Cole's strikeout prop closed at 4.5 (-140/+105) and his outs recorded prop was 15.5 (+115/-145) in Game 1. Those lines are 4.5 (-148/+116) and 16.5 (-120/-108) for Game 5.
I bet under 15.5 outs for Cole in Game 1. However, the Yankees also need more length from their ace in Game 5, and he's throwing harder in the playoffs than in the regular season.
After returning from injury, Cole's fastball velocity was down this year (95.9 mph vs. 96.7 mph in 2023 and 97.8 mph in 2022). Still, he's reaching back for a bit more in the playoffs, posting three of his four highest velocity figures of the season in four postseason starts.
Cole averaged 96.7 mph in Game 1 of the World Series and across his two ALDS starts (96.8 and 96.6 mph in either game), both surpassing and matching his season highs of 96.6 mph (in two different starts) from August (the twin peaks in the middle of the graph):
Bet Cole Over 16.5 outs, as opposed to his K prop. He only faced 22 hitters in Game 1 but pitched into the seventh inning. I'd imagine Boone would like to get him through the Dodger's order three times (27 batters), if possible, on Wednesday.
Consider betting Ohtani Under 0.5 Home Runs (-300 at ESPN BET), which closed -250 for Game 1 against Cole, -450 for Game 2 against southpaw Carlos Rodon, and -450 and -400, respectively, in Games 3 and 4 after his shoulder injury.
Alternatively, Ohtani Under 1.5 Total Bases (-125 at DraftKings) closed +110 against Cole in Game 1, -150 in Game 2 (against a lefty), and -155 and -145, respectively, after his shoulder injury in Games 3 and 4.
Ohtani had a pair of hard-hit balls in Game 4 (103.8 and 102 mph, respectively), but Cole has held him in check throughout his career (4-for-23, 1 BB, 8 K), on top of Ohtani's 0-for-3 (1 K) performance against the reigning AL Cy Young winner in Game 1.
I projected the Yankees as -120 favorites (54.5% implied) in Game 5 — the same projection I had for Game 4. I would bet the Dodgers at +125 (44.5% implied) or better.
Temperatures in the Bronx have increased throughout the week into the mid-60s for first pitch on Wednesday compared to 60 degrees on Tuesday and 52 on Monday.
I set the Game 5 total at 7.68 runs — bet Under 8.5 to -125 or Under 8 to -105.
Zerillo's MLB Predictions & World Series Picks for Wednesday, October 30
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- Gerrit Cole, Over 16.5 Outs Recorded (-120, 0.1u) at FanDuel (bet to -125)
- Jack Flaherty, Under 14.5 Outs Recorded (+118, 0.1u) at FanDuel (bet to +100)
- Jack Flaherty, Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115, 0.1u) at DraftKings (bet to +100)
- Under 8.5 (-120, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to -125 or 8, -105)
