The 2025 MLB season begins on Thursday. Before getting your bets down on all 14 games, you might want to catch up on how to bet all 30 teams in the MLB futures market.
Below, you'll find MLB over/under predictions and win total picks for all 30 teams.
MLB Over/Under Predictions
Click on a team below to navigate to its section.
| AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST | NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST |
|---|---|
| AMERICAN LEAGUE CENTRAL | NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL |
| AMERICAN LEAGUE WEST | NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST |
American League East
Over/Under 93.5 Wins
New York Yankees
By Sean Zerillo
I typically only consider betting win totals where there's at least a three-win gap (and typically 3.5) between the market odds and my projection. I also generally prefer to see alignment with the composite projection too.
Every projection system for 2025 aligns on the Yankees as a sound "Under" wager, at 92 wins or higher, compared to a peak public projection of 89 (PECOTA), my projection at 88.6, an average public projection of 87.4, and a composite projection of 88, which would recommend an Under down to 91.5 or 91.
Moreover, the Yankees aren't as safe to return to the playoffs as you might expect, with a composite projection of +234 (29.9%) to miss the playoffs, compared to market odds as high as +345 (22.5% implied).
The Yankees' roster is highly injury prone, and the organization lacks the minor-league depth to supplement the lost playing time of their stars. Additionally, the AL East is the most competitive division in baseball; the average public projection has four of the five clubs finishing over .500, with the Blue Jays (80.9 wins) on the cusp and capable of going from worst to first.
Prediction: Under 93.5 (-115; ESPN Bet)
Editor's Note: Since this was written, the Yankees lost Gerrit Cole (Tommy John surgery) for the season while Giancarlo Stanton deals with two elbow injuries. Their win total has dipped to 89.5.
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Over/Under 88.5 Wins
Baltimore Orioles
By Kyle Murray
As an Orioles fan, this one hurts.
The Orioles have a lot of young talent, but they lost several key players from last season — notably, Anthony Santander (who had 44 HRs) and Corbin Burnes departed. They did try to replace them with Tyler O'Neill and Charlie Morton, but those guys simply just don't fill the void.
The O's won 91 games last year in a great season, but they are still in one of the toughest divisions in baseball. It is clear that the Red Sox improved greatly with the additions of Alex Bregman, Garrett Crochet and Walker Buehler, while the Blue Jays also got better, as they swiped Santander away and also added Max Scherzer.
The loss of veteran talent combined with the difficult division has me on the under.
Prediction: Under 88.5 Wins (-110; FanDuel)
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Over/Under 77.5 Wins
Toronto Blue Jays
By Sean Zerillo
I bet the Blue Jays Over the same day that PECOTA was released; it turned out we had the two highest projections in the market for Toronto.
I don't particularly like this roster as I see lots of downside risk to the Under if they start slow and consider trading Vladimir Guerrero Jr. — who is a free agent next offseason — but every projection system sees the Blue Jays clearing at least 79 wins in 2025, with a peak of 84.6 from PECOTA.
Given my projection (83.1), I'd generally recommend 79.5 as a cutoff, but after factoring in the public projection, the composite would stop at 78.5.
Prediction: Over 77.5 Wins (-110; DraftKings)
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Over/Under 79.5 Wins
Tampa Bay Rays
By Sean Zerillo
I missed out on betting Rays over 79.5 wins at the open and would pass at current numbers (81.5), but I like their chances to make the playoffs —and make a deep run — a bit more than the odds suggest.
I projected their playoff odds at +181 (35.6% implied) — slightly worse than the composite projection — but still show an edge relative to the best available odds at +230 (30.3% implied) and would take that down to around +200.
Prediction: Over 79.5 Wins Only
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Over/Under 86.5 Wins
Boston Red Sox
By Sean Zerillo
Boston's win total moved from 84.5 to 86.5 after a productive offseason.
The Sox added Garrett Crochet and Alex Bregman to a young core that has two of the top AL rookie of the Year candidates. PECOTA likes Boston's under (projected 79.8 wins), but public projections otherwise align with the betting market.
The projection market shows a wide range of expected outcomes for the Red Sox; the BAT has Boston as the best team in the AL East at 68.8% to make the playoffs (-221 implied) and nearly 36% (+179 implied) to win the division compared to PECOTA at 22.4% (+334) and 5% (+1900), respectively.
The composite projection likes their odds to miss the postseason (projected -116, listed +110), while the public projection — even with that 68.8% figure baked in — stands at a near pick'em (-102).
Prediction: No play
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American League Central
Over/Under 84.5 Wins
Minnesota Twins
By Sean Zerillo
I like the Twins' organizational depth much more than I did last season — when injuries crippled their campaign — and I view them as one of the two leading contenders in the AL Central for 2025.
While the composite projection leans Under for Minnesota, even the least optimistic projection (36.4%, +175 implied) views them as a value bet in the divisional market, with PECOTA as high as 56.5% (-130 implied) to win the Central. However, I projected value on a second AL Central team that is trying a bit harder to improve.
That said, the projection market views the Twins as a relatively strong playoff bet at plus money. The lowest projection is 50.2%, and the consensus is 58%, compared to odds as high as +120 (45.5% implied) marketwide. I'd take -110 or better.
Prediction: Pass
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Over/Under 83.5 Wins
Detroit Tigers
By Sean Zerillo
I should note that my divisional projection for the Tigers (31.4%, +218) is the highest in the market, but if you eliminate PECOTA (9.6%) from the public sample, the remaining public projection (+251) aligns with my current price target (+250; +260 best available).
I show correlated value on the Tigers to make the playoffs (my projection -124, composite projection +110, listed +120) and to win the American League (bet to +1200) or World Series (projected +1941, listed +3500).
Detroit played at a 97-win pace in the second half once AJ Hinch optimized this roster and began aggressively deploying his bullpen. The Tigers' pitching staff should outperform projections again in 2025.
Prediction: Pass
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Over/Under 83.5 Wins
Cleveland Guardians
By Sean Zerillo
Every projection likes the Guardians to go under their win total (peak of 82 from Davenport); I'd recommend the Under to 82 since my projection is in direct alignment with the public.
Additionally, every projection sees the Guardians as an excellent bet to miss the playoffs; PECOTA gives them the best chance, at 22.7% (+341), and I'd bet them to miss the playoffs up to -175, if not higher.
Their lineup should suffer after trading Josh Naylor and Andres Gimenez, and their bullpen — including Emmanuel Clase, who struggled in October — could burn out after strenuous usage in 2024.
Prediction: Under 83.5 (-120; ESPN Bet); bet to Under 82
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Over/Under 83.5 Wins
Kansas City Royals
By Sean Zerillo
The Royals have a top-heavy roster with zero prospect depth to supplement their major league team in 2025; if they sustain any injuries to key players (Bobby Witt Jr. or Cole Ragans) or if Salvador Perez declines in his mid-30s, there's a significant downside to this team.
Every projection likes the Royals to go Under their win total (peak of 81.8 from ATC); I'd recommend the Under to 83 (projected 79.6), but the composite projection would stop at 83.5.
Each projection sees them missing the playoffs nearly 60% of the time or more (low of 59.3% from FanGraphs), compared to listed odds of -135 (57.5% implied), which is my personal cutoff point.
Prediction: Under 83.5 Wins (-110; DraftKings)
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Over/Under 53.5 Wins
Chicago White Sox
By Collin Whitchurch
From a talent standpoint, this version of the White Sox might actually be worse than last year's 41-win team. Their win total for this year opened at 51.5 but was quickly bet up as all the public projection systems out there like this team to win at least 60 games.
For the purposes of this bet, the White Sox going over means they have to improve by 13 wins this year, which seems insane. But there is a pathway to this team being better — some of it is luck based, but there's also the fact that they're no longer beholden to underperforming top-line options — like Eloy Jimenez and Tim Anderson — who got playing time no matter what.
That's not the case this year; they can actually act like a true rebuilding team. They can roster churn to see what they have — something they refused to do last year.
Another point in their favor is the upgrade at manager. Pedro Grifol might go down as the worst manager in major league history — from a wins-loss perspective, that's irrefutable. New manager Will Venable has spent a lot of time working with a number of successful managers like Joe Maddon and Bruce Bochy.
While it doesn't necessarily look good on paper once again, the White Sox are acting like an actual big-league club behind the scenes from a scouting and data standpoint. It's insane that it's taken until 2025 for the Sox to get to this point, but they have finally gotten there.
By James Lumalu
The White Sox can't be that bad again, can they?
They only won 41 games last season and then they traded their best pitcher — Garrett Grochet — over the offseason. Yeah, they're going to be bad … but maybe not that historically bad. Luis Robert Jr.'s still in the fold — he'll be plenty motivated after a dismal 2024 season.
Pecota has the White Sox projected for 61.3 wins. On Jan. 31st, the White Sox win total was listed at 51.5 on DraftKings; that number has since ticked up a bit. This is number is so low you just have to play it.
Prediction: Over 53.5 Wins
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American League West
Over/Under 87.5 Wins
Houston Astros
By Kyle Murray
It is no secret that the Astros took a bit of a beating this offseason after losing lineup stalwarts Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker.
While I don't think the Bregman loss is much of a big deal since they replaced him with Isaac Paredes, I do think the Tucker loss is a big one.
This number also differs from other books that are offering 86.5 and even 85.5 wins.
Prediction: Under 87.5 Wins (-115; DraftKings)
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Over/Under 85.5 Wins
Texas Rangers
By Sean Zerillo
I projected the Rangers to finish atop the AL West this season, but I'm not nearly as high on them as PECOTA (90.4 wins, 50.6% division, 81.2% playoffs), who view Texas as an exceptional value bet in all markets.
Still, the Rangers have significant rotation depth, a deep lineup one through nine, and a completely overhauled bullpen, with six new relief pitchers acquired via trade or free agency this offseason.
Regardless of differing divisional and win total projections, every forecast likes the Rangers to make the postseason at least 52% of the time (-176 composite projection). I'm closer to -165 on their playoff odds, but would still place that bet up to -135.
Additionally, bet the Rangers' divisional odds to +150 (my projection is +135) and their AL Pennant Odds to +900. You could play their World Series odds (projected +1513, listed +2500), too, but I prefer an NL team for an outright.
Lastly, the AL West winner likely receives a Round 1 bye (unless the White Sox win 30 games and the AL Central winner wins 100+ games by default). Rangers to clinch a bye (+400) is correlated to their divisional chances; take +350 or higher.
Prediction: Pass on the win total; bet Rangers to make the playoffs (-110; bet365)
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Over/Under 84.5 Wins
Seattle Mariners
By Sean Zerillo
I lean Under on the Mariners, but I'm the low man in the market on their win total (projected 82.8 vs. a minimum of 84.6 at FanGraphs and the peak of 88 from Davenport).
If I only used my projections, I would consider betting Seattle to miss the playoffs (projected 30.8%, -110 listed).
However, every public projection has Seattle making the postseason at least 56% of the time, and blending my projection to form the composite (-111) encourages me to pass on that bet.
Prediction: Lean Under 84.5 (-110; DraftKings)
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Over/Under 71.5 Wins
Los Angeles Angels
By James Lumalu
The Angels are coming off another depressing season. Their first without Shohei Ohtani since 2017, the Halos managed to win just 63 games, coming one defeat shy of a 100-loss season. During the Shohei years (2018-23), the Angels hovered in the range of 72-80 wins.
What torpedoed the Angels last season? Same old stuff: Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon barely played, among other things like subpar pitching and lack of depth. This season already looks to be off to an ominous start as Rendon is out for the season due to hip surgery.
The team-building philosophy remains absurd — NO rebuilds ever — but there are a lot of above-average players on this team after a busy offseason that featured a number of veteran additions (Jorge Soler, Yusei Kikuchi, Kenley Jansen, Travis d'Arnaud).
It's quite easy to envision the Angels "threatening" for the third AL Wild Card for parts of the season before ultimately not making the playoffs again.
Prediction: Over 71.5 Wins (-120; DraftKings)
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Over/Under 71.5 Wins
Athletics
By Kyle Murray
The A's won 69 games last season after losing seven of their last 10 games, but they did have some bright spots, and they went out and made some nice moves over the offseason as well.
They added Luis Severino and Jeffrey Springs to their starting rotation, and they have a strong bullpen led by one of the best closers in baseball: Mason Miller.
The A's have a lineup that is stronger than they get credit for as well, featuring the likes of Brent Rooker, JJ Bleday and Shea Langeliers. They should also have Rookie of the Year candidate Jacob Wilson in their lineup sooner than later.
Prediction: Over 71.5 (-106; FanDuel)
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National League East
Over/Under 92.5 Wins
Atlanta Braves
By Sean Zerillo
The Braves had an average public projection of 99.4 wins last season and still finished 89-73 despite playing nearly the entire year without Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuña Jr. — both of whom are set to return in 2025.
While the market leans slightly toward the Over on their win total, the divisional odds offer much more value. The least optimistic projection (46.7%, +114 implied from PECOTA) would still recommend Atlanta as a value bet, and their consensus odds are well north of 60%; take +110 or better.
Prediction: Pass
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Over/Under 91.5 Wins
Philadelphia Phillies
By Sean Zerillo
The Phillies check all three boxes for a win total bet, showing at least a 3.5-win gap between their listed total and 1) my projection (-5.6), 2) the public projection (-3.7), and 3) the composite projection (-4.6).
Every projection has them finishing under their win total (peak of 91 from Davenport), although I'm the low man at 85.9.
The composite projection recommends Under 90.5, while my projection says to go as low as 89.5; 90 is a fair compromise.
While I think the Phillies are nearing the end of their potential contention window (average age of 32.7 among Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos, JT Realmuto, Zack Wheeler, and Aaron Nola), I'll pass on their odds to miss the playoffs, which I'd project closer to +200 if you eliminated my own number.
They have a relatively high floor compared to most teams, but I think the ceiling is closer to 90 wins; the Mets and Braves are likelier to add pieces in-season.
Prediction: Under 91.5 Wins (-102; BetRivers)
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Over/Under 90.5 Wins
New York Mets
By Greg Liodice
A lot of the baseball world zeroed in on the Mets after they snagged baseball’s prized free agent this offseason: Juan Soto.
For a team that was two games away from the World Series, the addition of Soto — 41 home runs, .989 OPS, 178 OPS+ — will be a welcoming sight in Flushing. Additionally, the Mets retained Pete Alonso after a contentious free agency battle. Those two paired with 2024 NL MVP runner-up Francisco Lindor pose a deadly trifecta for opposing pitchers.
Additionally, with young weapons like Mark Vientos and Francisco Alvarez, the depth of the Mets' starting lineup can take this team far.
Last season, after a very slow start, they eventually worked themselves up to rank in the top 10 in offensive rating, wOBA, Slugging%, OBP% and wRC+.
While New York thrived at the plate, its pitching was just OK. It ranked near the middle in xFIP, WAR, ERA, and was third worst in walks per nine innings.
There was a lot to like given that Sean Manaea solidified himself as a legitimate starter. The question now is whether he can maintain it. What made him so good last season was his ability to alter his throwing motion to make the ball sneak up on batters.
From July 30 (around when he tweaked his motion) until his final start, Manaea was one of baseball’s most efficient pitchers, posting a 3.09 ERA with a 22.3% K-BB%.
Aside from Manaea, the Mets bullpen thrived and was able to rank near the top in strikeouts, ERA and WAR. Luckily, most of the bullpen is staying intact, and they brought in A.J. Minter from the Braves.
I think reaching over 90.5 wins is very attainable for this squad. Given that they secured 89 wins after a miserable start to last year, it doesn’t seem out of the question for an even better season ahead.
Prediction: Over 90.5 Wins (-110; DraftKings)
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Over/Under 63.5 Wins
Miami Marlins
By Charlie Wright
The Marlins won 62 games last season and it's hard to see them improving on that mark this year given their lack of offseason additions and handful notable subtractions. They are also stuck in what is shaping up to be the best division in baseball.
Jake Burger led the team in hits, home runs and RBI last season — he was traded to the Rangers. Bryan De La Cruz was second in home runs and third in RBI — he signed with the Braves.
Key veterans Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Josh Bell were traded last season. Miami replaced these lineup staples with quad-A types from recent trades.
Kyle Stowers, Connor Norby, and Deyvison De Los Santos will get extended looks. Griffin Conine and Jonah Bride fall into the same bucket as subpar major-league talents. It's a discouraging projected lineup for a team that finished 27th in scoring last season.
Pitching injuries continue to hamper the Marlins as well.
Sandy Alcantara is coming back from Tommy John surgery. Eury Perez is still recovering from Tommy John surgery. Braxton Garrett has been ruled out for the season with a UCL injury.
Ryan Weathers, Max Meyer, Edward Cabrera and Valente Bellozo will open the season behind Alcantara. Miami will likely need breakouts from Meyer and/or Cabrera to field a competent rotation. It will also need Alcantara to regain his pre-injury form, but if that happens, he's likely to get traded at some point.
Only Colorado gave up more runs than Miami last season, and the Marlins should be in the running for that title once again this year.
According to Vegas, the NL East is the best division in the league. The Braves, Phillies and Mets are among the top five in highest win total lines. The books have each team priced above 90 wins.
The MLB schedule is more balanced these days, but Miami still has to play that trio 39 times. Maybe the Marlins can beat up on the Nationals, but that didn't work out too well last season. Washington beat Miami 11 out of 13 times in 2024.
Prediction: Under 63.5 Wins (-105; BetMGM)
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Over/Under 69.5 Wins
Washington Nationals
By Sean Zerillo
The Nationals have a fun, young roster, but the math shows that they are still a year (and several pieces) away from wild-card contention.
I'm the highest in the market on their playoff chances (4.8%, +1983 implied) and still show value on their odds to miss (-1300) the postseason.
Still, I have the second-highest win-total projection for Washington (75 from Davenport) and fired at Over 69.5 a couple of weeks ago; you can take Over 70.5 where available, but I wouldn't go any higher.
Prediction: Over 69.5 Wins (-120; ESPN Bet)
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National League Central
Over/Under 77.5 Wins
St. Louis Cardinals
By Sean Zerillo
Public projections lean over on St. Louis, with a peak projection of 82 from Davenport, but aside from that outlier, the market seemingly has this team winning between 77-78 games.
Nolan Arenado remains on the trade block, and Ryan Helsley, Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz and Erick Fedde are all expiring trade chips if this team starts slow.
There's definitely upside here — a Jordan Walker post-hype breakout combined with a healthy season for Lars Nootbaar and one or two of Nolan Gorman, Alec Burleson, Ivan Herrera, or a rookie like Thomas Saggese popping could give them an exciting offense — but the starting staff is old and thin.
Prospects Tink Hence and Quinn Mathews should inject some much-needed youth into the starting staff, and some clever free-agent acquisitions could make the Cardinals much more interesting in 2026.
They feel stuck in limbo, between eras, currently.
Prediction: Pass
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Over/Under 87.5 Wins
Chicago Cubs
By Kyle Murray
There seems to be some value here as this number sits at 85.5 at other books.
The Cubs made a big add with Kyle Tucker and top prospect Matt Shaw will also help bolster their lineup, but overall, I still think the improvements they made are not deserving of an 87.5 win total after winning just 83 games last season.
Prediction: Under 87.5 Wins (-128; FanDuel)
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Over/Under 78.5 Wins
Cincinnati Reds
By Kyle Murray
This Reds team is filled with interesting and exciting young talent, and they also made some nice offseason additions. While they traded Jonathan India, they are set to replace him with 2023 breakout player Matt McLain, who missed 2024 with a shoulder injury.
They also have an exciting, young rotation full of high-upside options. I think the Reds are a dark horse to win a division that is without a truly dominant team, and in turn, I like the over on this win total.
By Sean Zerillo
Cincinnati is the team I'm highest on compared to public projections — a five-win gap between expectations. In fact, every public projection would lean Under on the Reds' win total, but I would bet Over 78.5 and lean into their divisional odds at +450 or better (projected +341).
Elly De La Cruz (3rd in NL WAR in 2024) is an MVP-caliber player and Hunter Greene has developed into one of the best (and most electric) pitchers in the NL. They're also getting Matt McLain back from injury and Noelvi Marte back from suspension, and retained Nick Martinez (perhaps the most underrated pitcher in baseball last season) and added two effective bullpen arms.
They have five effective major-league starting pitchers and three former first-round picks — Rhett Lowder, Chase Burns and Chase Petty — sitting in Triple-A.
There is upside — and prospect pedigree — all over the Reds' 40-man roster, including slugger Christian Encarnacion-Strand on the bench. I expect new manager Terry Francona to get the most out of this roster.
Prediction: Over 78.5 Wins (-110; DraftKings)
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Over/Under 83.5 Wins
Milwaukee Brewers
By Sean Zerillo
After cashing my divisional long-shot ticket on the Brewers last season, I'm fading their postseason chances in 2025.
I give Milwaukee just shy of a 39% chance of returning to the postseason (+159 implied), and the public projections (+184) are even less optimistic. Bet Milwaukee to miss the playoffs, up to -140.
They lost their best player and clubhouse leader in Willy Adames. Their bullpen could have some burnout after extreme usage last year, and I don't trust Christian Yelich to play to expectations after suffering another significant back injury.
Prediction: Pass on win total; Brewers to miss playoffs (-120 to -140; BetRivers)
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Over/Under 77.5 Wins
Pittsburgh Pirates
By Sean Zerillo
Although I wish they did more in the free-agent market to capitalize on the Paul Skenes era, I still lean over on the Pirates' win total for 2025.
I expect top prospect Bubba Chandler to form a dynamic rotation alongside Skenes and Jared Jones, with Mitch Keller and Andrew Heaney serving as above average back-end starters.
Oneil Cruz has 40+ home run potential, but this roster doesn't have much offensive upside.
I put the Bucs' divisional chances at +900, while OOPSY would go as high as +646.
If you like the Pirates, I won't talk you out of a divisional bet. However, I think the divisional long-shot bet is better than their odds of making the playoffs; OOPSY only gets them to +393 (listed as +380), and the consensus is closer to +670.
Prediction: Lean Over 77.5
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National League West
Over/Under 103.5 Wins
Los Angeles Dodgers
By Sean Zerillo
Several projections recommend an under bet on the Dodgers' win total — the composite projection would justify anything at 104 or higher (96.4 from The BAT, 96.3 from OOPSY, and 96.9 from FanGraphs).
Still, I'm north of 100 wins on this team (PECOTA is at 103.4 and Davenport at 103) and believe that the 2025 Dodgers might ultimately be the best of the Ohtani era. They have a significantly deeper pitching staff than last season despite all of their offensive stars crossing the wrong side of 30 (and in Freddie Freeman's case, 35).
Betting the Dodgers to secure a Round 1 bye is likely a better bet at cheaper odds than laying their NL West price.
Still, even their most optimistic World Series projection (26%, +285 implied from ATC) falls short of the best available odds (+265).
Prediction: Pass
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Over/Under 86.5 Wins
Arizona Diamondbacks
By William Boor
Arizona has exceeded its win total in each of the past three seasons and I think it'll do so again in 2025.
The NL West, with plenty of games against the Dodgers, Padres and Giants, is tough, but the Diamondbacks will have opportunities to beat up on the Rockies and have proven more than capable of competing with the other teams in their division.
Arizona went over this number a season ago and although the schedule may have gotten a bit tougher, the Diamondbacks also got better. Corbin Burnes is a massive addition to the rotation and Corbin Carroll should bounce back from a mixed 2024.
The loss of Christian Walker is tough, but the Josh Naylor addition is a solid one to help fill the void. I'm expecting another strong season from Ketel Marte and more of the same from both Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly.
I also wouldn't be surprised to see Brandon Pfaadt take a step forward and if this team can get anything out of Jordan Montgomery, that'd be a huge boost over last season. If not, well, that's why the Diamondbacks added Burnes.
Additionally, the Diamondbacks will likely be battling for a Wild Card spot. That means there won't be any time to coast as they'll be fighting for every win down the stretch — as opposed to possibly taking some games off after wrapping up the division (which could be the case for the Dodgers). And if you think Arizona will win the division … well, it'll have to clear this number to do so.
I'm backing Arizona to eclipse its win total and I also wouldn't mind betting the Diamondbacks to make the playoffs (-114 at FanDuel) if you prefer to go that route instead.
Prediction: Over 86.5 (-104; FanDuel)
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Over/Under 87.5 Wins
San Diego Padres
By Sean Zerillo
I bet the Padres Under 87.5 wins before they added Nick Pivetta in free agency. I was closer to 83 wins at the time (84.1 current), and if you remove the PECOTA projection (87) from the public sample, the remaining projections are only at 82.9.
The Friars' lineup and rotation are extremely top heavy, and the bullpen — which was potentially the best in baseball by season's end last year — lost several key pieces.
Additionally, the Padres are in the midst of a legal battle over team ownership, potentially leaving the club financially hamstrung; trade rumors have surrounded pending free agents Luis Arraez and Dylan Cease, as well as closer Robert Suarez.
Furthermore, president and general manager A.J. Preller, who is typically aggressive in the trade market, seems unlikely to deal potential stars in prospects Ethan Salas and Leodalis De Vries, and he doesn't have many trade chips to fortify the current roster beyond those pieces.
I wouldn't bet on the Under at this point, but you could invest in the Padres to miss the playoffs. PECOTA is the only projection north of 50% (60.6%), and if you base a price target off the composite projection (-148 to miss), I'd be comfortable laying it up to -125.
Prediction: Under 87.5 (+100; ESPN Bet)
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Over/Under 79.5 Wins
San Francisco Giants
By Jim Turvey
After making some big additions over the offseason with Willy Adames and Justin Verlander, the Giants are my island team this year.
While everyone is on the D-backs bandwagon, I think the Giants are a little bit overlooked entering this season. There's intriguing young talent all over this roster (Ryan Walker, Heliot Ramos, Patrick Bailey, Tyler Fitzgerald) and their vets (notably, Robbie Ray) have shown well over spring training.
Prediction: Over 79.5 Wins (-104; FanDuel)
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Over/Under 60.5 Wins
Colorado Rockies
By Sean Zerillo
The public projection views the Rockies (61.1 wins) as the worst team in baseball, behind the White Sox (62.6) and Marlins (65.6). You can consider betting Colorado to finish with the most regular-season losses.
Their lowest win projection (54.8) is far below anything the White Sox were expected to do in 2024 (low projection of 65) and more than three wins clear of the Marlins' lowest projection (58 from Davenport) for 2025.
I'll pass on the loss leader wager considering that I project the White Sox (53.1) eight wins worse than any other team.
The Rockies' unique home environment seemingly leads to a minimum 45% home win rate, even at their worst (and closer to 55% when they field a competitive team). And if they're playing to a 36-45 record at Coors, the Rockies only need to win go 25-56 on the road (a 50-win pace) to clinch the Over.
Prediction: Pass
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