Game 5 of the ALCS gets underway this evening as the Houston Astros take on the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Field.
Let's dive into my top MLB PrizePicks plays for Astros-Rangers tonight.
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Here’s how I would approach a PrizePicks stack that focuses on Astros vs. Rangers Game 5.
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Adolis Garcia Fantasy Score Less Than 7.5
Right-hander Justin Verlander takes the mound for Houston and could be a good candidate to back in Game 5.
Verlander built upon his first-ballot Hall of Fame resume in the regular season, posting a 13-8 record with a 3.22 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 27 starts. This success continued into the postseason as the right-hander tossed six shutout innings while only allowing four hits against the Minnesota Twins in the ALDS and then allowed just two runs in nearly seven innings of work against Texas in Game 1 of this series.
That brings us to Adolis Garcia, a boom-or-bust hitter who typically relies on the long ball. In the opening game against Verlander, Garcia went 0-for-4 at the dish.
He has typically struggled against Verlander, posting a mere .182 BA, .182 SLG and .189 wOBA through 13 career plate appearances. When facing right-handed pitching this year, Garcia's splits drop by roughly 5%.
Jose Altuve Fantasy Score Less Than 7
Meanwhile, we're also going to fade a pair of Houston hitters against left-hander Jordan Montgomery, who takes the mound for the Rangers.
Like Verlander, Montgomery put together a tremendous campaign as he posted a 3.20 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 32 starts. He got roughed up a bit in the his ALDS start against the Orioles, allowing four earned runs through four innings.
However, he also threw seven scoreless frames against the Tampa Bay Rays in the Wild Card Round and 6 1/3 scoreless inning against the Astros in Game 1 of this series.
The first Houston hitter to fade is Jose Altuve, who possesses a poor track record against Montgomery. Through 16 career plate appearances against the left-hander, Altuve owns a mere .188 BA, .188 SLG and .165 wOBA.
This shouldn't be that shocking given that Altuve typically performs worse against lefties, with his splits dropping by approximately 11% this season when doing so. He failed to surpass this figure in Game 1 of this series against Montgomery.
Alex Bregman Fantasy Score Less Than 6.5
In a play with some correlation, we're also going to fade a guy who hits directly behind Altuve in the batting order: Alex Bregman.
It's been a tough month for Bregman, who owns a .179 BA, .397 SLG and .724 OPS over his past 21 games. This difficult stretch of hitting could continue against Montgomery, a pitcher whom Bregman possesses a .250 BA, .250 SLG and .248 wOBA through 17 career plate appearances.
Like Altuve, Bregman failed to surpass this figure in Game 1 against Montgomery.
