MLB's Divisional Round continues on Wednesday, which means there are plenty of entries to sift through on PrizePicks.
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Here’s how I'd approach Wednesday's MLB slate, which focuses on Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks Game 3.
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Tommy Pham More Than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI
Right-hander Lance Lynn takes the mound for the Los Angeles Dodgers and could be a good fade candidate against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
It was an incredibly tough year for the veteran hurler, who posted a 5.73 ERA and 1.39 WHIP through 32 starts. His underlying metrics are also poor, ranking in the bottom half of the league in xERA, xBA, Chase%, Barrel% and Hard-Hit%.
That brings us to Tommy Pham, who has been a crucial part of Arizona's success thus far. He has surpassed this figure in each of his past three games, boasting a .500 BA, .714 SLG and 1.214 OPS over that stretch.
Pham is only 1-for-5 against Lynn in his career, but he does possess a respectable .295 xBA, .387 xSLG and .291 xwOBA over those five plate appearances. Speaking of analytics, Pham's are tremendous as he ranks in the 85th percentile or higher in xwOBA, xBA, average exit velocity and Hard-Hit%.
Add in the fact that his splits jump by approximately 9% when playing at Chase Field this year, I like Pham to keep things rolling against Lynn.
Max Muncy Less Than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI
We're also going to fade a couple members of the Dodgers as right-hander Brandon Pfaadt takes the mound for Arizona.
Pfaadt is going to be a boom-or-bust candidate in this spot. He allowed three runs on seven hits in under three innings against the Milwaukee Brewers in the Wild Card Round. However, that was his first career playoff start and he has shown that he can deal when his stuff is working as he allowed zero runs in two of his final three regular season starts.
That brings us to Max Muncy, who is also a boom-or-bust candidate in this spot. He could homer off Pfaadt in the first inning, but unless he gets ahold of one it is more likely he doesn't even get on base.
Through six career plate appearances against Pfaadt, Muncy owns a mere .172 xBA. Muncy also enters this contest in poor form, posting a .176 BA, .206 SLG and .523 OPS over his past nine games.
He failed to surpass this number in six of those nine outings.
J.D. Martinez Less Than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI
In a play with some correlation, we're also going to fade the guy who hits directly behind Muncy in the projected batting order: J.D. Martinez.
Martinez has never faced Pfaadt, so it may take a few trips to the plate for Martinez to figure him out. It also doesn't help that he's going against a right-handed pitcher as Martinez's splits drop by roughly 9% since 2021 when doing so.
While he did homer in Game 2, Martinez has failed to surpass this figure in three of his past four games. Over that stretch, he possesses a .200 BA, .400 SLG and .694 OPS.
