The ALCS continues Wednesday evening as the Texas Rangers host the Houston Astros in Game 3.
Despite the lone game, there are still plenty of entries to sift through on PrizePicks.
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You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play provides lesser odds, but you can win money even if you don’t nail every pick. A Power Play is all-or-nothing.
Here’s how I would approach a PrizePicks stack that focuses on Astros vs. Rangers Game 3.
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Mitch Garver Less Than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI
Right-hander Cristian Javier takes the mound for Houston and could be a good candidate to back in this contest.
While it was a bit of a tumultuous campaign for Javier, he is coming off a strong start against the Minnesota Twins in the ALDS, a game in which he tossed five shutout innings while allowing just one hit. Dating back to the regular season, Javier is 2-1 with a 2.45 ERA and 1.09 WHIP over his past five starts.
That brings us to Mitch Garver, who dominated in the ALDS against the Baltimore Orioles. However, he has come back down to earth this series as he is just 1-for-8 with a single.
He has now failed to surpass this figure in six of his past nine games. Situationally, this game presents a tough spot for the Texas DH as his splits drop by roughly 11% this season when facing right-handed pitching.
Yordan Alvarez Less Than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI
We're also going to fade a pair of Houston hitters against right-hander Max Scherzer, who takes the mound for the Rangers in his long-awaited return.
He hasn't pitched in nearly a month due to a muscle strain in his shoulder, but if there is anyone who can pick up right where they left off, it is the future Hall-of-Famer. Through 27 regular season starts, Scherzer went 13-6 with a 3.77 ERA and 1.12 WHIP.
His underlying metrics were even stronger, posting a 3.28 xERA and .205 xBA. The first Houston hitter to fade is superstar Yordan Alvarez.
Alvarez is obviously a monster at the plate, but this could be a sell-high opportunity after he went yard twice in Game 2. Facing Scherzer is an incredibly difficult task no matter who is on at the plate, and Alvarez hitting a home run in every-other at-bat is completely unsustainable (famous last words, I know).
Jose Altuve Less Than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI
In a play with some correlation, we're also going to fade a guy who hits a few spots ahead of Alvarez in the batting order: Jose Altuve.
There are a lot more reasons to dislike Altuve in this matchup than Alvarez other than the ol' fashioned "there's no way this guy can keep hitting bombs in every plate appearance."
First of all, Altuve's track record against Scherzer is poor as he owns a mere .154 BA, .154 SLG and .135 wOBA against him through 26 career plate appearances. His analytics over that span are also weak as he has generated a .190 xBA, .244 xSLG and .185 xwOBA.
Altuve also enters this contest in poor form, going hitless over each of the past three playoff games. In the postseason, he now possesses a .160 BA, .280 SLG and .472 OPS.
