The MLB Divisional Round could come to an end on Thursday as the Philadelphia Phillies look to clinch a trip to the NLCS with a 2-1 series lead over the Atlanta Braves.
Despite the lone game, there are still plenty of entries to sift through on PrizePicks.
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You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play provides lesser odds, but you can win money even if you don’t nail every pick. A Power Play is all-or-nothing.
Here’s how I would approach a PrizePicks stack that focuses on Braves vs. Phillies Game 4.
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Trea Turner Less Than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI
Right-hander Spencer Strider takes the mound for Braves and could be a good candidate to back.
A likely finalist for the NL Cy Young, Strider went 20-5 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.09 WHIP through 32 starts this season. His underlying metrics are even better, ranking in the 92nd percentile or higher in xERA, xBA, Chase%, Whiff% and K%.
Despite taking the loss in Game 1 of this series, Strider shut down Philly as he allowed just one earned run on five hits through seven innings pitched. That brings us to Trea Turner, who did surpass this figure in that game but not until Strider was already pulled.
It should not be shocking that Turner struggled once again against Strider considering that he is hitless through 17 career at-bats in this matchup. You read that correctly: 0-17 lifetime against Strider.
It also doesn't help Turner's case that his splits drop by roughly 12% since 2021 when facing right-handed pitching.
Matt Olson Fantasy Score More Than 7
We're going to back a pair of Braves hitters against left-hander Ranger Suarez, who takes the mound for the Phillies.
Suarez looked sharp in that aforementioned Game 1 against Strider and Atlanta, allowing just one hit through 3.2 innings of work. With that said, it was a limited appearance and he had been struggling before this series.
Even including that outing, Suarez owns a 4.61 ERA and 1.21 WHIP over his past five starts. This was a guy with a 4.18 ERA and 1.42 WHIP during the regular season, and his underlying metrics aren't much better as he ranks in the 42nd percentile or lower in xERA, xBA, Whiff%, K% and BB%.
The first Atlanta hitter to back is Matt Olson.
Through 20 career plate appearances against Suarez, Olson boasts a .294 BA, .412 SLG and .362 wOBA. Batting from the left side of the plate, Olson thrives against right-handed pitching as his splits jump by approximately 33% when doing so this season.
Austin Riley Fantasy Score More Than 7.5
In a play with some correlation, we are also going to back the guy who hits directly in front of Olson in the batting order – Austin Riley.
Riley is one of the few Atlanta hitters who enters this contest in good form, having surpassed this figure in three of his past five games. Over that stretch, he owns a .348 BA, .565 SLG and .913 OPS.
This success is likely to continue against Suarez, a pitcher whom Riley possesses a .333 BA, .611 SLG and .451 wOBA against through 22 career plate appearances. Olson and Riley are two of the best hitters in baseball in terms of their analytics, and they will both need to carry the middle of the order if Atlanta is to extend this series to Game 5.
