Game 3 of the NLCS gets underway this evening as the Philadelphia Phillies take on the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field.
Let's dive into my top MLB PrizePicks plays for Phillies-Diamondbacks tonight.
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Here’s how I would approach a PrizePicks stack that focuses on Phillies vs. Diamondbacks Game 3.
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Nick Castellanos More Than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI
Rookie right-hander Brandon Pfaadt takes the mound for Arizona and could be a good candidate to fade in Game 3.
We've seen some poor performances from Pfaadt recently (Milwaukee and New York), but we've also seen him completely stifle opposing lineups (Los Angeles and Chicago). He's been boom-or-bust lately, but this is going to be a tough spot for him against a loaded Philadelphia lineup.
Furthermore, his underlying metrics suggest that regression is looming as Pfaadt ranks in the bottom third among major league pitchers in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, Barrel% and Hard-Hit%.
Nick Castellanos has been on an absolute tear this postseason. Over his past five games, Castellanos boasts a .471 BA, 1.353 SLG and 1.877 OPS with five homers.
He surpassed this figure in four of those five outings. His analytics this season were also strong, ranking in the 60th percentile or higher in xBA, xSLG, Barrel%, Hard-Hit% and Sweet-Spot%.
Corbin Carroll More Than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI
Meanwhile, we're going to back a pair of Arizona hitters against left-hander Ranger Suarez, who takes the mound for the Phillies.
Like Pfaadt, Suarez's recent form has been volatile. He was great in the NLDS against Atlanta, but he ended the regular season with a pair of poor starts against Pittsburgh and New York. Also like Pfaadt, Suarez's analytics suggest that regression is looming as he ranks in the 42nd percentile or lower in xERA, xBA, Whiff%, K% and BB%.
The first Diamondbacks hitter to back is Corbin Carroll, who has surpassed this number in four of his seven playoff games. Over that span, Carroll owns a .333 BA, .625 SLG and 1.092 OPS.
While he is just 1-for-4 against Suarez in his career, that one hit was a double, which would put him in prime position to score if he is able to replicate that. It will help Carroll that he is playing at Chase Field, a venue where his splits have jumped by roughly 8% this season.
Christian Walker More Than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI
In a play with some correlation, we're also going to back a guy who two spots behind Carroll in the batting order: Christian Walker.
Like Carroll, Walker enters this contest in good form as he possesses a .250 BA, .458 SLG and .845 OPS over his seven playoff games. Also like Carroll, Walker has had success against Suarez with a .333 BA, .600 SLG and .454 wOBA in 19 career plate appearances.
Situationally, this is a great spot for Walker as his splits jump by roughly 15% when facing left-handed pitching this season and by 10% when playing at Chase Field.
