The ALCS kicks off on Sunday evening as the Houston Astros host the Texas Rangers in Game 1.
Despite the lone game, there are still plenty of entries to sift through on PrizePicks.
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You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play provides lesser odds, but you can win money even if you don’t nail every pick. A Power Play is all-or-nothing.
Here’s how I would approach a PrizePicks stack that focuses on Rangers vs. Astros Game 1.
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Mitch Garver Less Than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI
Right-hander Justin Verlander takes the mound for Houston and could be a good candidate to back in this opening game.
Verlander continued his first-ballot Hall of Fame resume, posting a 13-8 record with a 3.22 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 27 starts. This success continued into his lone postseason start thus far as the right-hander tossed six shutout innings while only allowing four hits against the Minnesota Twins in the ALDS.
That brings us to Mitch Garver, who dominated in the ALDS against the Baltimore Orioles. However, now is the time to sell high on Garver given that he is just 1-for-11 in his career against Verlander with seven strikeouts.
Prior to the ALDS, Garver failed to surpass this number in each of his previous five games. Situationally, this game presents a tough spot for the Texas DH as his splits drop by roughly 11% this season when facing right-handed pitching and 15% when hitting on the road.
Alex Bregman Less Than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI
We're also going to fade a pair of Houston hitters against left-hander Jordan Montgomery, who takes the mound for the Rangers.
Like Verlander, Montgomery put together a tremendous campaign as he posted a 3.20 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 32 starts. He got roughed up a bit in the his ALDS start against the Orioles, allowing four earned runs through four innings. However, he also threw seven scoreless frames against the Tampa Bay Rays in the Wild Card Round.
The first Houston hitter to fade is Alex Bregman, who has failed to surpass this figure in 11 of his past 17 games. Over that span, Bregman owns a .175 BA, .365 SLG and .690 OPS.
This tough stretch of hitting could continue against Montgomery, a pitcher whom Bregman possesses a .231 BA, .231 SLG and .238 wOBA against through 14 career plate appearances. He has also not fared as well when hitting at Minute Maid Park this year as his splits drop by roughly 10% when doing so.
Kyle Tucker Less Than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI
In a play with some correlation, we're also going to fade a guy who hits behind Bregman in the batting order: Kyle Tucker.
Tucker hasn't really been able to get it going this postseason, failing to surpass this figure in three of their four playoff games. Over that stretch, he owns a mere .143 BA, .214 SLG and .508 OPS.
Like Bregman, Tucker possesses a poor track record against Montgomery, going 1-for-6 with a single and two strikeouts. Also like Bregman, Tucker has not fared as well at Minute Maid Park this season as his splits drop by approximately 25% at home.
