We have a stacked 15-game MLB slate on Tuesday, which means there are plenty of entries to sift through on PrizePicks.
A quick refresher if you aren’t familiar with PrizePicks: You can combine up to five different player squares to pay out up to 10x your entry.
You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play gives you lesser odds, but you can win money even if you don’t nail every pick. A Power Play is all-or-nothing.
Here’s how I would approach Tuesday's MLB slate.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player picks in which you combine two or more entries together.
Jose Ramirez Fantasy Score More Than 8.5
The first installment of this three-game AL Central series gets underway Tuesday evening with the fifth-place Kansas City Royals hosting the second-place Cleveland Guardians. Slated to take the mound for Kansas City is right-hander Brady Singer, who could be a good candidate to fade in this matchup.
Through 15 starts this season, Singer is 4-7 with a 6.34 ERA and 1.57 WHIP. His underlying metrics are just as poor, ranking in the 11th percentile or lower in Average Exit Velocity, HardHit%, xERA/xwOBA, xBA and xSLG.
The first Cleveland hitter to back in this contest is Jose Ramirez. Putting together yet another terrific campaign, Ramirez boasts a .293 BA, .514 SLG and .872 OPS through 73 games.
His underlying metrics suggest regression is unlikely, ranking in the 81st percentile or higher in xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, K% and Whiff%. Entering this game in good form, Ramirez has cleared this number in five of his past seven games.
This trend is likely to continue against Singer, a guy Ramirez typically dominates. Through 20 career plate appearances against Singer, Ramirez possesses a .438 BA, .875 SLG and .588 wOBA with two homers.
Steven Kwan Fantasy Score More Than 7.5
The other Guardians hitter to back in this contest is Steven Kwan. While it hasn't been the most successful campaign for Kwan thus far, the plate-control specialist has been turning it around recently, producing a .306 BA over his past eight games.
Currently, he ranks in the 82nd percentile or higher in xBA, K%, Whiff% and Chase Rate. Like Ramirez, Kwan has fared well against Singer in his career.
In 11 career plate appearances against Singer, Kwan boasts a .500 BA, .600 SLG and .502 wOBA. When facing right-handed pitching since 2021, his splits jump by approximately 7%.
Paul Goldschmidt Fantasy Score Less Than 6.5
The first installment of this three-game interleague series gets underway Tuesday evening with the St. Louis Cardinals hosting the Houston Astros. Slated to take the mound for Houston is left-hander Framber Valdez, who should be a good candidate to back in this matchup.
Through 15 starts, Valdez is 7-5 with a 2.27 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. He currently possesses the second-shortest odds to take home the AL Cy Young Award.
The first St. Louis hitter to fade is Paul Goldschmidt. Entering this game in relatively poor form, Goldschmidt is averaging just four fantasy points over his last three outings.
Goldschmidt has never faced Valdez before, so it may take a few turns through the batting order to figure him out. Finally, when facing left-handed pitching this season, Goldschmidt's splits drop by roughly 22%.
Nolan Arenado Fantasy Score Less Than 6.5
The other Cardinals hitter to fade is Nolan Arenado. While Arenado's surface-level stats are not terrible, his underlying metrics are far more concerning.
Currently, he ranks in the 47th percentile or lower in Average Exit Velocity, HardHit%, xwOBA and Barrel%. Therefore, it is not surprising to learn that regression has started to hit Arenado recently — he's gone below this number in each of his past four games.
Over that stretch, he is just 2-for-15 with two singles. This trend is likely to continue against Valdez, someone Arenado is 0-for-3 against in his career.
