After you all get done betting the over on Joey Chestnut's hot-dogs-eaten prop (as is your American duty to do on July 4), you can head over to PrizePicks to take advantage of a stacked 15-game MLB slate.
A quick refresher if you aren’t familiar with PrizePicks: You can combine up to five different player squares to pay out up to 10x your entry.
You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play gives you lesser odds, but you can win money even if you don’t nail every pick. A Power Play is all-or-nothing.
Here’s how I would approach July 4th's MLB slate.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player picks in which you combine two or more entries together.
Bo Bichette Fantasy Score More Than 7.5
The first installment of this three-game series gets underway with the AL Central's Chicago White Sox hosting the AL East's Toronto Blue Jays. Right-hander Lucas Giolito is slated to take the mound for Chicago, and he could be a decent fade candidate in this Fourth of July contest.
Through 17 starts this season, Giolito is 6-5 with a 3.53 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Those surface-level stats are not terrible by any means, but his underlying metrics suggest that regression is looming.
Giolito ranks in the 45th percentile or lower in Average Exit Velocity, HardHit%, xERA/xwOBA, xSLG and Barrel%.
This sets up favorably for Bo Bichette, who boasts a .317 BA, .507 SLG and .853 OPS with 15 homers through 84 games. His underlying metrics are even stronger, ranking in the 90th percentile or higher in xwOBA, xBA and xSLG.
This strong season is likely to continue against Giolito, a pitcher whom Bichette possesses a .375 BA, .875 SLG and .545 wOBA against through nine career plate appearances.
George Springer Fantasy Score More Than 7.5
In a play with some solid correlation, we are also going to back the hitter directly before Bichette in the batting order.
George Springer's campaign has not been as smooth as Bichette's, posting a .270 BA, .420 SLG and .752 OPS through 83 games.
Nonetheless, his underlying metrics are better, posting a .279 xBA, .454 xSLG and .348 xwOBA.
But like Bichette, Springer has thrived against Giolito. In 12 career plate appearances against the right-hander, Springer boasts a .333 BA, .556 SLG and .455 wOBA. Positive regression is looming for Springer, and this could be the matchup where it comes to fruition.
Brandon Nimmo Fantasy Score More Than 7.5
The NL West's Arizona Diamondbacks host the NL East's New York Mets in the first installment of this three-game series.
Right-hander Zach Davies will take the mound for Arizona, and he is putting together a forgettable campaign. Through nine starts, he is 1-4 with a 6.54 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. Based on his underlying metrics, positive regression is unlikely as he ranks in the 36th percentile or lower in Average Exit Velocity, xERA/xwOBA, xBA, K% and Whiff%.
The first New York hitter to back is Brandon Nimmo, as he has been one of the best players on the team this season. Through 82 games, he possesses a .279 BA, .458 SLG and .830 OPS.
Entering this game in particularly good form, he has surpassed 7.5 fantasy points in three of his past four outings. This strong stretch at the dish is likely to continue against Davies, a pitcher whom Nimmo boasts a .500 BA, 1.167 SLG and .679 wOBA against in six career plate appearances.
Francisco Lindor Fantasy Score More Than 7.5
In another play with some solid correlation, we are also going to back the guy who hits two spots behind Nimmo in the Mets batting order. Similar to the Bichette/Springer comparison earlier, Lindor's season has not quite been as successful as Nimmo's.
With that said, there may not be a more favorable batter-pitcher matchup on the board than Lindor against Davies, at least based on history. In five career plate appearances against the right-hander, Lindor boasts a .500 BA, 2.000 SLG and .953 wOBA with two homers.
Obviously, that is not the largest sample size in the world, but it is very promising nonetheless. Finally, Lindor has recorded at least 7.5 fantasy points in two of his past three games.
