Each Tuesday, FanDuel runs a popular promotion that allows each user to bet $25 on one player in every MLB game played that day to hit a home run. Regardless of whether or not the player you bet on homered, you receive $5 in free bets back for each home run hit in the game, with a max return of $25.
Given the average number of home runs in an MLB game in 2021 was 2.44, you will receive an average of $12.20 in free bets back for each $25 home run bet you make, without accounting for the loss in expected value on the vig of the home run yes prop.
Even though home runs are down this year, the prop retains its positive expected value, but I've chosen to be more selective by targeting games with higher totals in hitters parks, generally.
Here’s my favorite selections for Tuesday’s slate:
Reds vs. Guardians, 6:10 p.m. ET
Tommy Pham +560
Guardians starter Zach Plesac has been one of the worst starting pitchers in all of baseball at this point in the season, and Tommy Pham has been quite underrated when you look at his underlying numbers.
Cleveland isn't much of a hitters' park but Pham has his highest barrel rate since 2016, the highest hard-hit rate of his career and his plate discipline has been excellent as well.
Counter this with the matchup against Plesac, who has allowed an 11.7% barrel rate, almost double the league average. Hitters have an xSLG allowed of .578, which is also bottom 7% of the league.
Pham has more positive results coming if he continues hitting the ball this hard and he's shown plenty of pop in his bat to take a shot at this price. This isn't one of the prime candidates for Dinger Tuesday spots given the ballpark, but selling Plesac and buying Pham is enough for me to play it.
Padres vs. Phillies, 6:45 p.m. ET
Rhys Hoskins +350
Citizens Bank Park is one the biggest hitters' parks in all of baseball and when you consider the pop in these two offenses, Padres-Phillies is a must-play game on Dinger Tuesday.
I'd normally just say to pick Bryce Harper, but the slugger is out of the lineup tonight. My next choice for easy power in Philadelphia is Rhys Hoskins.
Hoskins is traditionally one of the streakiest hitters in all of baseball. He started the season in a tailspin, but the last week has shown clear signs that he is heating up. He homered three times — twice against Seattle and once against Los Angeles — in the last week and now returns home to a friendly park.
He's been using the entire field in his at-bats recently and that's usually a sign he's on the verge of one of his hot stretches. Hoskins has more value on the board than lefty slugger Kyle Schwarber.
If you want more of a long shot, Jean Segura (+810) has been dialed in and has the highest barrel rate of his career.
Astros vs. Red Sox, 7:10 p.m. ET
Rafael Devers +360
Given the ballpark and the pitching matchup, Astros vs. Red Sox is another must play on the Dinger Tuesday card.
Boston is a plus park for hitting home runs, and both Nathan Eovaldi and Jose Urquidy are prone to giving up the long ball. Eovaldi throws with high velocity but his fastball gets barreled up a good amount, and Urquidy is a fly ball pitcher.
Rafael Devers has crushed right-handed pitching and given that Houston only has one lefty in its bullpen right now, he's likely to see all righties on Tuesday night.
The fact that BetRivers is offering a +330 on Devers to homer tonight, he's posting excellent barrel rate numbers and Urquidy is allowing a 12.4% barrel rate, I'm loving the value on Devers at +360 to homer.
Angels vs. Rangers, 8:05 p.m. ET
Anthony Rendon +385
Taylor Hearn has really struggled in this young season and given Anthony Rendon's success against left-handed pitching, I like the matchup to buy low on Rendon.
Rendon has a higher barrel rate than each of the last two seasons and his hard hit rate is up closer to his 2019 levels when he was one of the league's best hitters. Compare his quality of contact to his results and he's been quite unlucky this season in Anaheim.
With the power in both lineups I do expect some home runs in this game and Hearn has especially struggled on the mound in this young season. On 74 batted balls this year, Hearn has allowed 12 barrels, which is more than double and almost triple the league average. He will allow hard contact, especially to power hitting right-handers.
The easy pick here would be to take Mike Trout, but I'm buying at a better price on Rendon and hoping for some positive regression that he's due for to come at the plate tonight. And who knows, maybe he'll hit one as a lefty off of a position player on a Tuesday again.
Giants vs. Rockies, 8:40 p.m. ET
C.J. Cron +310
If you bet a single game for Dinger Tuesday, it should be this game.
Coors Field will always be the highest total on the board and it is here and the ball should be flying in Denver tonight. Alex Cobb takes the hill for the Giants and I like him more than I do starter Chad Kuhl for the Rockies.
Despite this, I'm going back to a classic Tuesday selection from last year and trusting Rockies slugger C.J. Cron and his impressive barrel rate to begin the 2022 season.
Cron's 13.4% barrel rate is exactly double the league average, it's more than he had last season. Even though you're not getting the best number at +310, Cron has come through too many times at home for me to go against him here.
His barrel rate and hard hit rate are both improved from last year and he's not going to burn plate appearances with walks as he has a low walk rate.
