Player props have been an interesting field to navigate through the first few days of the season as the shortened spring is significantly impacting the length of starting pitchers' outings.
This can work to our advantage in multiple ways, as today we'll be attacking an unadjusted market and some batter vs. pitcher numbers that can't be ignored.
Justin Steele Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-160)
| Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs | Brewers -160 |
| First Pitch | 2:20 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Justin Steele made the transition from the 'pen to the rotation in August of last season. In the nine starts he made during the last month and a half of the 2021 season, Steele only went more than five innings once and only topped five strikeouts once. It was the same outing on the final day of the season against Pittsburgh.
Two of his starts did come against the Brewers, so he does have a small track record against some of the current bats. In 25 plate appearances, Steele has only allowed current Brewers to hit .136 against him with a .265 xwOBA.
However, what stands out in those numbers is the lack of strikeouts. He's totaled only four. That is across two separate starts. Given how we have seen arms handled early in the season, I don't think Steele gets anywhere near 20 batters faced, and he should go well under this total here.
Pick: Under 5.5 (-160)
J.D. Martinez Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130)
| Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees | Yankees -150 |
| First Pitch | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
There is no better way to kick off the season than to have it begin with perhaps the biggest rivalry. The Red Sox and Yankees have and will continue to see a lot of each other. However, many past meetings have created quite a sample size to work from.
Here, we're going to pick on Luis Severino, who is making his return from an injury-riddled 2021 where he only made four appearances. He is tasked with a loaded Boston lineup, and his outlook gets even gloomier when you look at the history between him and J.D. Martinez.
Martinez has pummeled Severino through 21 career meetings. He has a .389 batting average and has a slugging percentage of .500. Statcast shows that he should have done more damage as Martinez has an expected slugging percentage of .630 and an xwOBA of .459.
Severino was not all that sharp in spring training, and if he still has not shaken off the rust, Martinez will make him pay.
Pick: Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130)
David Peralta Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100)
| San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks | Padres -155 |
| First Pitch | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
David Peralta has been one of the few mainstays in the Arizona lineup. He's been kept around because he always finds a way to produce.
Over the course of his career. he has excelled against right-handed pitching. Over 2,300 career ABs, Peralta is hitting .298 with a .845 OPS. So who does he face in this matchup? Right-hander Joe Musgrove.
While Peralta is just 5-for-17 against Musgrove, three of those hits have been for extra bases, and Statcast's expected numbers say he should have hit Musgrove even harder. Through those 17 matchups, Peralta has an expected batting average of .370, an expected slugging percentage of .590 and an xwOBA of .407.
Lastly, this matchup will also occur at home, where Peralta thrives. In nearly 1,200 career ABs against righties at home, he's hitting .313 with a .382 wOBA.
Given all the numbers in his favor, Peralta has a great chance to eclipse this number.
Pick: Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100)
