Welcome to another busy Friday in Major League Baseball.
We've got 30 teams set to take the field and two players who provide value in the prop market.
Our Action Labs Props tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Kyle Hendricks over 3.5 Strikeouts (-140)
| Cubs vs. Brewers | Brewers -135 |
| First Pitch | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Whatever Kyle Hendricks is eating, I want some.
His strikeout rate is up over 5% from last season, and his 8.41 K/9 would be a career-high over a full season. Save a strange start against the rather-disciplined Pirates (2 K over 7 IP), Hendricks has recorded 17 strikeouts in 13 1/3 innings.
It's his changeup. The pitch is moving better than it has in the past few seasons, specifically vertically. His change has picked up an extra two inches of vertical movement since 2020.
Kyle Hendricks, Filthy back to back Changeups. 👌👌 pic.twitter.com/hQhVFBBk7l
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 23, 2022
As a result, he's gotten 50% of batters to whiff at his changeup so far. When batters do make contact, he's kept their exit velocity under 86 mph on average.
But again, batters are not making contact with this pitch. Of those 17 aforementioned strikeouts, nine came on the changeup.
Image credit: Baseball Savant
The Professor stepped on the mound just a few weeks ago for Opening Day against this same Milwaukee lineup, and he struck out seven Brewers with six coming on the changeup.
It was a massacre. And Milwaukee has posted the eighth-highest strikeout rate in the league since (24.7%).
Our Action Labs Projections have Hendricks recording 4.8 strikeouts today, while FanGraphs SaberSim model projects 3.95 and Betting Pros player prop tool projects 4.51.
At anything better than -150, I'll be on the over.
Pick: Over 3.5 Ks (-140)
Action Labs Grade: 9/10
Paul Goldschmidt over 1.5 Total Bases (-110)
| Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals | Cardinals -190 |
| First Pitch | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Paul Goldschmidt is having a pretty decent start to his 34-year-old campaign. His power is slightly down, but his strikeout rate is also down and he's making solid contact.
Goldy has recorded a whopping 21 hits through the first 18 games of the campaign, including four doubles. As a result, he's cashed his bases total in seven of his last 10 games.
He'll now face a familiar foe in Madison Bumgarner. In 85 lifetime PAs against MadBum, Goldschmidt is a whopping 24-for-71 with 10 extra-base hits and a 15:12 BB/K ratio.
While that adds up to a .338 average and a .592 SLG, it gets better. Goldy's 97.6 mph avg. exit velocity and 19-degree avg. launch angle produces a .399 xBA and a .845 xSLG.
Goldschmidt has already smashed Bumgarner, and he is due for more positive regression.
The reason why is pretty simple: Platoon splits. Goldschmidt has always smashed lefties in his career, and he's batting .357 with a 167 wRC+ against that side in early 2022.
Image credit: FanGraphs
It also helps that Bumgarner is clearly over the hill while Goldschmidt should be productive again this season.
Give me Goldy to go over his bases total at -110 or better.
Pick: Over 1.5 Total Bases (-110)
