It's an absolutely packed Tuesday slate, but the MLB props market is a little sketchy for my liking.
Therefore, I have one player prop I highly recommend and one I'd lean towards taking. Play the latter at your own risk.
This column went 2-0 yesterday, so we're getting back on the right track as we make the turn into May and the Dog Days.
Our Action Labs Props tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Humberto Castellanos Over 2.5 Strikeouts (-167)
| Diamondbacks at Marlins | |
| First Pitch | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | BetRivers |
Despite the rather large slate, I can't say I love any player props other than German Marquez's strikeout total (discussed in the next section).
However, if you're desperate to add another play to your card, I'd consider Diamondbacks pitcher Humberto Castellanos — mostly because multiple projections have him crushing this number.
Our Action Labs Projections mark Castellanos for 3.4 Ks today, while FanGraphs SaberSim projections have him at a whopping 4.2 strikeouts.
I can't endorse this pick, because the juice is high and Castellanos has only cleared this number (2.5 strikeouts) in one of his three starts. He's just an opener, so he shouldn't have a long leash today.
However, Miami can be a strikeout-prone team. Moreover, Castellanos gave us 10.1 strikeouts per nine innings (K/9) in eight appearances in 2020 and 9.21 K/9 in 12 Triple-A starts last year.
He's at least worth consideration against the Fish today, but proceed with caution.
Lean: Over 2.5 Ks (-167)
Action Labs Grade: 6/10
German Marquez Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-150)
| Nationals at Rockies | |
| First Pitch | 8:40 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
The Rockies have figured out how to pitch at home. The pitching staff has learned run prevention at the highest-scoring park in baseball, and the numbers reflect that.
The same goes for German Marquez.
Marquez used to be a road pitcher — someone who we theorized would take a big step forward on another squad with a pitcher-friendly ballpark. But that narrative is beginning to change.
- Marquez in 2021: 3.67 home ERA, 5.38 road ERA; 3.58 home xFIP, 3.72 away xFIP
- Marquez in 2022: 4.67 home ERA, 9.82 road ERA; 3.30 home xFIP, 4.41 away xFIP
As a result of his superior home pitching, Marquez is often undervalued at home. He's gone over 3.5 strikeouts at Coors Field in 17 of his last 21 starts. That 81% hit rate would imply -425 odds to the over.
The Nationals aren't a particularly strikeout-prone team, but they're already swinging and missing more than last year. Furthermore, I see some net-positive advantages for Marquez against the Nationals lineup, for example:
- Josh Bell: 6 Ks in 18 ABs
- Cesar Hernandez: 5 Ks in 11 ABs
- Nelson Cruz: 2 Ks in 3 ABs
In the end, 3.5 strikeouts is not a big number. Our Action Labs Projections mark Marquez for 4.9 Ks today, while FanGraphs SaberSim projections have him at 4.2.
Either way, I like the value with Marquez here.
Pick: Over 3.5 Ks (-150)
Action Labs Grade: 8/10
