April 15th is a significant day in America.
It's Tax Day, but it is also Jackie Robinson Day in MLB. It has been 77 years since Robinson broke the sport's color barrier in his debut, changing the sport and the country for the better.
So, while you join me in sweating today's top MLB player prop picks tonight, soak in all the nuances of America's pastime.
MLB Player Prop Picks Tonight
Twins veteran Carlos Santana is someone to buy low on in the Twins vs Orioles matchup on Monday.
The 38-year-old veteran has gotten off to a horrid start, but has shows signs of life. Despite hitting just .125, Santana is making plenty of solid contact as he ranks in the 85th percentile in average exit velocity. He's been unlucky thus far, but he can turn it around tonight against Cole Irvin.
Santana has hit lefties well in his career. His career batting average against them is 49 points higher than against righties, and his career wRC+ is 13 points higher.
As for Irvin, he has gotten righties out better than lefties in his career, but he's been knocked around this season. Irvin ranks in the bottom 25% in nearly every Statcast category.
Pick: Carlos Santana Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-105)
Joe Ross' return to the big leagues has been a success thus far, as he has a 1.80 ERA after two starts. His stuff looks as good as ever, but there is one glaring issue.
Ross has six walks through 10 innings of work. Five came in his first start against Minnesota, a team that isn't very disciplined at the plate.
Tonight, Ross faces a Padres team that drew seven free passes against James Paxton on Sunday and now has the 10th-highest team walk rate in baseball. So, while Ross reduced the walks in his last outing, this price does not indicate his command issues.
Pick: Joe Ross Over 1.5 Walks (-125)
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Lars Nootbaar may have only 13 plate appearances this season, but he's come off the IL locked in, and we should see better results tonight.
Nootbaar has been seeing the ball well. He's walked four times in four games while holding a 50% hard-hit rate.
He has an excellent matchup against Oakland's Ross Stripling. Stripling has done a good job of generating soft contact, but his inability to get whiffs has led him to be more unlucky than not and work with a lot of traffic on the bases.
With Nootbaar slotted in at the seventh spot in the lineup, he has the potential to be driven in by the top of the order if he can get on base. Last season, we saw him exceed this number in 56% of games played.
At this plus-money price, we are getting good value on a sneaky good bat in the Cardinals' lineup.
Pick: Lars Nootbaar Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI (+100)
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