We've reached June, and that means the MLB season is more than a quarter of the way done.
We have a substantial 2022 sample size to pull from now, which should enable sharper analysis.
With that in mind, I've targeted two pitchers worth fading in the props market today. That includes an ace who has been struggling in recent starts.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Carlos Rodón Under 8.5 Strikeouts (-145)
| Giants at Phillies | |
| First Pitch | 6:05 p.m. ET |
| Best Line |  |
Carlos Rodón started the season on a tear, striking out nine or more batters in four of his first six starts. His K/9 was sitting in the 15.00 range, and the newly-minted Giant appeared to have a great presence in the Bay.
Something has changed since then.
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Image credit:FanGraphs
I can't put my finger on it. Rodón's four-seam is still one of the best pitches in baseball. His velocity and spin rate have remained steady. His approach hasn't been any different.
Yet, Rodón has failed to reach even seven strikeouts in four of his last five starts, and he hasn't been particularly close to nine. Here are the stat lines from each of his last five starts.
- 5/3 @ LAD: 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 3 K
- 5/9 vs COL: 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 12 K
- 5/15 @ STL: 3.2 IP, 8 ER, 10 H, 1 BB, 3 K
- 5/21 vs SDP: 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 4 BB, 6 K
- 5/27 @ CIN: 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 3 BB, 2 K
Notice a trend?
Rodón has struggled in road starts. Maybe the problem is not his approach, but instead it's just sleeping in a hotel rather than his own bed.
The Giants ace has failed to cash over 8.5 strikeouts in four of five road starts this season and 13 of 18 road starts dating back to the beginning of last season. That 72% hit rate would imply -260 odds to the under.
Philly's lineup has been poor this season, but there's too much value on Rodón's under to pass it up. Our Action Labs Props Tool projects Rodón for 7.3 Ks, and FanGraphs' SaberSim projections mark him for 6.2.
Pick: Under 8.5 Ks (-145)
Action Labs Grade: 8/10
Jeffrey Springs Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105)
| Rays at Rangers | |
| First Pitch | 8:05 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | |
Jeffrey Springs has only made five starts out of his 13 appearances this season. He finally cracked the 4.5-strikeout number in his last start, racking up seven K's against the Baltimore Orioles.
Otherwise, Springs has failed to reach this number in his other four starts with a K/9 under 5.0.
The Rays southpaw has the ability to miss a ton of bats. His swinging-strike and whiff rates are off the charts, alongside his chase rate. It mostly revolves around a changeup he plays off his four-seam — with the former pitch forcing an almost 40% whiff rate.
But Springs' strikeout numbers simply are not super high. His fastball doesn't have a ton of velocity or spin (92mph and 2231rpm on average) even though he throws it almost 45% of the time.
The Rangers have a sneaky good lineup. During the last 30 days and against southpaws, the Rangers are striking out less than 20% of the time (10th-best in MLB) with a 105 wRC+.
Maybe more importantly, the Rangers have been the fourth-best changeup-hitting team in MLB this season, with 8.9 weighted changeup runs created. Springs won't be able to sneak that pitch by these Rangers hitters.
Springs has faced five current Ranger hitters — Marcus Semien, Kole Calhoun, Adolis Garcia, Jonah Heim and Nathaniel Lowen — for a combined 17 plate appearances. He's recorded just three strikeouts in those PAs while allowing an xSLG close to .700.
Our Action Labs Props Tool projects Springs for only 2.7 Ks Wednesday, while FanGraphs' SaberSim projections mark him for 4.2.
Either way, there's value in this plus-money number.
Pick: Under 4.5 Ks (+105)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
