The weekend is here, and while today may be all about college football, It does not mean there isn't plenty of value on the mound.
I've found two starters who are being massively undervalued tonight. Let's find out who they are and how we're betting them.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I'll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Corbin Burnes Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+110/-150)
| Brewers @ Diamondbacks | |
| First Pitch | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | bet365 |
I was floored when I saw the price on this total. While this is not a smash spot in terms of the matchup, this over being at plus money is flat-out wrong. Burnes has gone over this total in 57.7 percent of his starts this season, which gives us implied odds of -136 that he will go over again.
This total has to be based off of recency bias as Burnes has failed to go over it in each of his last four starts. However, we have seen the Diamondbacks be susceptible to strikeouts this season. To their credit, they've done a great job of cutting them back as a team. In the first half, Arizona had the 13th-highest strikeout rate, and in the second half, the second-lowest strikeout rate as they have cut it by over five percent.
Although Burnes has had tremendous success in the small sample size against this Arizona lineup. In 19 combined at-bats, Burnes has recorded eight strikeouts. That includes multiples from Christian Walker and Josh Rojas, who have two of the lowest strikeout rates on the team.
This over is the top play in our Action Labs projections as it has Burnes pegged for just over nine strikeouts.
Pick: Over 6.5 +110
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Sean Manaea Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-150/+110)
| Padres @ Dodgers | |
| First Pitch | 9:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | bet365 |
We go from one badly mispriced line to a total that is far too low. Sean Manaea does not immediately come to mind when you think of strikeout artists, but his strikeout rate is in the top half of all qualified pitchers, and he averages just over one strikeout per inning.
The Dodgers are getting far too much credit here. I get that they are one of the most formidable lineups in baseball, and they'll have an excellent splits advantage against a lefty in Manaea, but all that does not mean they won't strike out. It certainly has not looked that way this season, also.
Manaea has had two starts against the Dodgers this season. In the first outing, he recorded five strikeouts in 4 1/3 innings. Then in the second outing, he racked up seven strikeouts in four innings.
Lastly, when you look at the big picture, you see how insultingly low this total is for Manaea. He has gone over 3.5 strikeouts in 87.5 percent of his starts this season. That gives us staggering implied odds of -700 that he will go over again.
Pick: Over 3.5 Strikeouts
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
