Happy Monday!
Start your week off right with two player props from our Action Labs Player Props tool, including one position player prop with a huge plus-money payout.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Mark Canha 2+ Total Bases (+170)
| Mets @ Yankees | |
| First Pitch | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
Mark Canha's been hot lately. He's slashing .382/.488/.794 over his last 13 games, picking up eight extra-base hits over his last 34 ABs. His 1.283 OPS during the stretch has helped catapult the Mets to series wins against the Braves, Phillies and Reds.
Mark Canha with his second bomb of the day regains the lead for the Mets.
This Phillies-Mets game feels like postseason baseball.
🎥 @SNY | @Metspic.twitter.com/03OOi7yYuM
— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) August 21, 2022
Canha's also been cashing bases totals. He's cashed this number in five of his last eight games. Even if you expand the sample size out to his last 30 games, he's eclipsed 1.5 TBs in 12 contests, a 40% hit rate that implies +150 odds to the over.
Plus, Canha loves this matchup with Domingo German. Canha is 7-for-11 lifetime against German with two extra-base hits and just one strikeout. Canha managed to put the ball in play against the right-hander and has done so with a 94.2 mph avg. exit velocity, producing a .436 xBA and a .782 xSLG.
If Canha doesn't pick up the needed bases during German's leash, he'll have ample of opportunity against a Yankees bullpen that is 26th in xFIP over the last month (4.40).
The +170 price tag is too high for this Canha prop today, which I would project at closer to +130. Anything better than +150 is a play for me.
Pick: 2+ TBs (+170)
Jordan Montgomery Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-157)
| Cardinals @ Cubs | |
| First Pitch | 8:05 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | BetRivers |
As the Yankees stumble through the second half of the season, a reincarnation of Jordan Montgomery would be very on brand.
Montgomery has now made three starts in St. Louis with a 0.54 ERA. He's pitched over five innings in all three starts and punched out 17 in the meantime.
Moreover, here are Montgomery's last two starts:
- August 12 vs MIL: 6.0 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 8 K
- August 17vs COL: 5.2 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 0 BB 8 K
Jordan Montgomery as a Cardinal:
11.0 IP
0 Earned Runs
2.30 FIP
3.25 xFIP
22 K%
51.7 GB%
0 Barrels
0.4 fWARMoney Mo. pic.twitter.com/QQsEx5Glgm
— Jacob (@CardinalsReek) August 13, 2022
Montgomery will take on his new division rival in the Cubs. But he already took on the Cubs earlier this season with the Yankees, where he pitched seven shutout innings, struck out five and walked none. He did it all over just 96 pitches with a swinging-strike rate close to 20%.
Montgomery has had a fine season, but he's been elite in the swinging and missing category. His 14% swinging-strike rate ranks in the 85th percentile of pitchers. Both his secondary pitches have a whiff rate north of 40%.
The Cubs have struck out at the seventh-highest rate against RHPs this season (24.1%) and at the ninth-highest rate over the last 30 days (25.5%).
Our internal Action Labs Projections mark Montgomery for six strikeouts today, while FanGraphs SaberSim projections have him at 5.6. Either way, there's plenty of value in this line for the up-and-coming "Money Mo."
Pick: Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-157)
Action Labs Grade: 8/10
