This column is on an absolute tear, as we've cashed 15 of our last 18 props for more than 12 units of profit.
That's thanks to our Action Labs Props tool, which uses our internal projections to identify strikeout props with value.
I've identified two more of those today.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Taijuan Walker Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-115)
| Mets vs. Yankees | |
| First Pitch | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Taijuan Walker is one of my favorite strikeout pitchers to back. You have to look at his splitter, which has produced a whopping -10 run value against opposing offenses even though it's his secondary pitch.
Taijuan Walker, Dirty 89mph Splitter. ✌️ pic.twitter.com/c915m5OkwD
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 31, 2022
The bottom falls out of it, and it's produced a 28.6% whiff rate as a result. It's the main reason Walker ranks above-average in chase rate despite the rest of his statistics being mediocre.
Moreover — thanks to the splitter — Walker has managed to cash over 3.5 Ks in 12 of 21 starts this season and in 33 of 51 starts dating back to the beginning of 2021. The latter's 65% hit rate would imply -183 odds to the over.
Walker is taking on a dangerous lineup, and one that held him to just three strikeouts over 101 pitches earlier this season. But the Yankees are spiraling. They rank just 22nd on the season in strikeout rate against RHPs (22.2%), but they rank fifth over the past month (25.2%). The Bronx Bombers have allowed five of the last six opposing starting pitchers to cash their strikeout total">total.
Plus, Walker's three strikeouts were paired with a respectable 27% CSW rate. And in two starts last season, Walker posted lines of:
- 7/3/2021: 5.2 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 5 K, 28% CSW
- 9/11/2021: 6.0 IP, 6 H, 6 ER, 1 BB, 8 K, 33% CSW
Finally, the Yankees do not fair well against that dangerous splitter, having posted just the 19th-best weighted splitter runs created this season (-3.9).
Our Action Labs Player Props tool projects Walker for 5.1 strikeouts Tuesday evening, providing us with an edge of more than 20% against the DraftKings line and making this our top player prop of the day.
Pick: Over 3.5 Ks (-115)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Zach Davies Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-130)
| Diamondbacks vs. Royals | |
| First Pitch | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Zach Davies spent all of July off the field with a shoulder injury and thus has been working on a limited leash through August. However, I hope they let him loose after his last start.
Davies tossed five innings of one-run ball against the Giants six days ago, striking out six over just 82 pitches thanks to a 28% CSW rate. He pitched well and that was his third start being limited to just 80 pitches.
In the four starts before his injury, Davies struck out five, six, seven and seven in his four respective starts. His strikeout numbers rose consistently start over start, with his CSW rate topping out at 35%.
The Royals used to scare me. They were uber-disciplined in 2021 and for the first half of 2022. But that discipline has faltered, with the Royals having posted the fourth-highest strikeout rate against RHPs over the past month (25.2%). They've allowed two of the last three opposing starting pitchers to go over their strikeout totals.
Davies couldn't get punchouts in a May start against the Royals, managing just two over 84 pitches. But that was before Davies started missing bats and the Royals started swinging and missing. Plus, Davies hosted the Royals last August and struck out five on 98 pitches with a 27% CSW rate.
Our Action Labs Player Props tool projects the undervalued Davies for 4.7 strikeouts tonight, providing plenty of value on the line being offered around the market.
Pick: Over 3.5 Ks (-130)
Action Labs Grade: 9/10
