The weekend is here! While everyone is pumped about the beginning of college football, the grind is far from over on the diamond. For this Saturday slate, I'm targeting two starters who are in excellent spots to blow past their strikeout totals. Let's find out who they are and why we're betting them.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I'll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Jeffery Springs Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-165/+125)
| Rays @ Red Sox | Rays -126 |
| First Pitch | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line: -165 | DraftKings |
The juice is worth the squeeze with this play. Springs has been stellar all season long, and his strikeout numbers have jumped since he joined the starting rotation.
Boston is not a team that I would typically target for strikeouts as it is around league average and holds the 17th-highest strikeout rate in the majors. However, Springs is well above average when it comes to strikeouts. His strikeout rate is amongst the top 25 percent of the majors.
This total is also far too low for Springs. He's gone over this total in 12 of his 17 starts, which gives us implied odds of -239 that he will go over again. This line is likely based on his only outing against Boston earlier this season, where he managed to punch out five Red Sox players in just four innings of work.
Springs is not a guy who will generally go deep into games, but odds are we see him go deeper than four innings this afternoon, which makes this over a slam dunk as he averages over a strikeout per inning.
Pick: Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-165)
Action Labs Grade: 8/10
Yu Darvish Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150/+112)
| Padres @ Royals | Padres -220 |
| First Pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line: -150 | Sugarhouse |
The Royals are now a team to attack when it comes to strikeouts as they hold the eighth-highest team strikeout rate in the second half of the year. The trades of Andrew Benintendi and Whit Merrifield have drastically changed this lineup as it's gotten much younger and more free-swinging.
We also have the perfect guy to attack them with, as Yu Darvish has been dominant of late. He's gone over this total in 14 of his 23 starts this season, including nine of his last ten. What makes Darvish so valuable to this total is the opportunity he gives.
Darvish has gone at least six innings in 21 of his 23 starts this season, and he has not gone less than six innings in a start since May 13th. Given that he averages a strikeout per inning, if he goes his standard six innings, he should go over this total, but when you factor in the matchup, it becomes much more likely.
Pick: Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-150)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
