Frankie Montas struck out three Angels after the fifth inning yesterday to cash one of our plays. But with Dylan Bundy falling short by the hook, we're looking for a big day this week.
Why not today? Our internal projections show some great value on the board.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Shane McClanahan Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-160)
| Rays @ Marlins | Rays -200 |
| First Pitch | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | BetMGM |
Shane McClanahan is falling behind in the AL Cy Young race, but it's questionable if he really should. Only three AL pitchers have put together more fWAR (3.8).
McClanahan has struggled slightly over the last few starts, all against poor offenses. He allowed five runs to the Guardians and then four runs to the Tigers (yikes) while adding two two-run starts against the Orioles and Royals.
Overall, he has a 3.94 ERA and just 8.49 K/9 across his last five starts, failing to cash his strikeout total three times.
But that means his strikeout total falls below seven in the juiciest matchup I've seen this season.
The Marlins strike out against lefties more than anyone in baseball — a 28.6% rate on the season and a whopping 31% rate in August. Detroit's 78.4% contact rate is lower than every MLB team — save the Rangers and Braves — and that number drops against southpaws.
McClanahan may be slumping slightly, but let's not forget he's struck out at least seven in 19 of his 24 starts, equating to a 79% rate that implies -380 odds to the over.
He ranks:
- In the 85th percentile in strikeouts per inning (1.24)
- In the 97th percentile in Swinging-Strike Rate (16.4%)
- In the 97th percentile in CSW rate (34.1%)
Both his changeup and slider have Whiff rates north of 45%, and those pitches break very late.
Sugar Shane is just unfair 🤯
Shane McClanahan has already struck out both Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani twice ✌️ tonight.
Watch ➡️ https://t.co/SEM9hD9HrY#MLB | #RaysUp@RaysBaseballpic.twitter.com/jHmnTK2JtN
— Bally Sports Sun: Rays (@BallyRays) August 25, 2022
McClanahan also took on the Marlins earlier this season. He struck out nine over just 96 pitches while forcing a 33% CSW rate in that one. Miami should struggle Tuesday evening.
We project McClanahan for 8.2 strikeouts today, meaning you can play this line — or the 7.5 number that BetRivers is offering — at slight plus-money (+116).
Pick: Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-160)
Action Labs Grade: 8/10
Mitch Keller Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-155)
| Pirates @ Brewers | Pirates +160 |
| First Pitch | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
I think the Pirates show some value today. A lot of that is thanks to Keller.
Specifically, Keller's fastball velocity. He's picked up two ticks on his average fastball year over year, leading to major improvements in his profile.
He's on pace to post an xERA under 4.50 for the first time in his career, and his FIP is under 4.00.
Plus, Keller's .333 BABIP should regress slightly to .300 as the season progresses.
Keller has struggled recently, failing to hit this line in four of his last five starts. But he's struck out four-plus batters in 15 of 24 starts this season (63%), including a start in Milwaukee where he picked up seven punchouts over just 75 pitches.
The second start against Milwaukee is troubling, considering he tossed 75 pitches and managed just one strikeout. But his CSW rate in the former outing was 31% while his CSW rate in the latter start was 25%, which isn't a significant drop-off.
It's clear he just didn't take advantage of his opportunities.
Our projections have Keller posting 4.6 strikeouts today, while FanGraphs SaberSim projections have him at 4.8.
Pick: Over 3.5 Ks (-155)
Action Labs Grade: 7/10
Logan Webb Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-157)
| Padres @ Giants | Giants +105 |
| First Pitch | 9:45 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | BetRivers |
Logan Webb is basically an auto-bet for me now. He's seen some major regression from a monster 2021, but his strikeout totals are now consistently opening in the 3.5-to-4.5 range.
That's too low for a guy who has logged 160 innings over 26 starts this season.
As such, Webb is cashing these low totals. He's struck out four or more in 17 of 26 starts this season, consistently hitting at 65%. Webb has hit this number in 42 of 55 starts, including 2021 (76%).
Webb's stuff isn't overwhelming, but he does rank above league-average in CSW rate (28.7%, 58th percentile). His fastball has regressed, but he's recorded an 11.4 Run Value on his Changeup this season
JOEY BART ON LOGAN WEBB: "His sinker and changeup are so good-"
LOGAN WEBB WALKING BY: "Thanks Joey" 😂 pic.twitter.com/zUxWMCZ7pT
— KNBR (@KNBR) April 9, 2022
The Padres' strikeout numbers aren't high, but they have allowed 11 of the last 15 opposing starting pitchers to cash their strikeout totals. Plus, Webb took on the Padres earlier this season and picked up seven strikeouts over just 96 pitches with a 36% CSW rate.
Projections are uber high on Webb today, too. Our Action Labs Player Props tool projects Webb for 5.2 Ks today, while FanGraphs SaberSim projections are at 4.6.
Pick: Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-157)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
