The end is near. We only have a handful of games left in the regular season, but that does not mean there isn't value on the board. Aces are wild across the major league circuit today, and I've pinpointed two excellent starters who are in for very different outings. Let's find out who they are and how we're betting them.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I'll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Jacob deGrom Over 8.5 Strikeouts (-150)
| Mets vs. Athletics | Mets -390 |
| First Pitch | 4:07 pm ET |
| Best Line:-150 | Bet365 |
It's not often you find value on the best pitcher in baseball, but that's what we have this afternoon. Jacob deGrom has not missed a beat since returning in August as he's come back and looked extremely sharp in multiple outings thus far.
Strikeouts are part of what makes him so deGrominant as he possesses the best fastball-slider combination of any starter in the game. In his nine starts this season, deGrom has had at least nine strikeouts in seven of them. That gives us implied odds of -348 that he will go over again this afternoon, and that is before you factor in the matchup.
He'll toe the rubber against the Oakland A's, who have been one of the worst offensive teams in the majors this season. One glaring cause of their troubles is the amount of time they strike out.
Oakland enters this matchup with the seventh-highest strikeout rate in the league and the sixth-highest rate over the last two weeks. Now the A's did not strike out very much last night against Chris Bassitt, which was peculiar, but deGrom is a different animal, and their good showing last night only points to regression.
Pick: Over 8.5 Strikeouts (-150)
Action Labs Grade: 7/10
Framber Valdez Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-130)
| Astros vs. Orioles | Astros -195 |
| First Pitch | 7:05 pm ET |
| Best Line: -130 | DraftKings |
Houston's lethal lefty has been rolling of late as he comes into this start with a 2.06 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over his last eight starts. Valdez has also had the strikeout pitch working over that same stretch as he has gone over this total in eight of his last ten starts, including his last five outings.
However, this evening's outing is the perfect spot to fade him. The Orioles' resurgence this season has led to a drastic drop in team strikeout rate throughout the season, and they have been especially good at putting the ball in play over the last two weeks as they rank 22nd in strikeout rate over that span. So while lefties have been a bit more effective in the strikeout department against them, Valdez's streak of cashing overs is due to end.
For the season, Valdez has only gone over this total in half of his starts, which gives us implied odds of +100 on either side. However, for this outing, the trends favor the under.
The market has come in on this total and has been hammering the under as the price is nearly 25 cents more at other sportsbooks. So grab the value where you can.
Pick: Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-130)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
