The first week rolls on and Tuesday's slate is loaded. We've got 15 games and all 30 teams taking the field today, starting at 1 p.m. ET and ending after midnight.
That means there's plenty of player prop value to be found. And by using our Action Labs Player Props tool, it's easy to find that value.
Our Labs projections and my research indicate value on two starting pitchers today — one to go over and one to stay under their respective strikeout totals. Plus, we'll be backing one dangerous Dodgers hitter.
Our Action Labs Props tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Shane Bieber Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-155)
| Guardians vs. Reds | Guardians -110 |
| First Pitch | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
This line scares me a bit, but I'm willing to bank on Bieber bouncing back after a short-and-sweet Opening Day start.
Plus, the projection market loves the former Cy Young winner today. Our Action Labs Player Prop tool projects Bieber for a whopping 7.9 Ks Tuesday afternoon, and FanGraphs' SaberSim projections mark him at 7.05.
I don't need to remind you just how deadly Bieber can be. He posted a K/9 over 13 in 28 starts between 2020 and 2021, with his strikeout rate ranking in the top-five percent of qualified pitchers.
Most of that comes from his breaking stuff, as his curve and slider both generate whiffs over 40% of the time. While he only pitched 4 2/3 innings on Opening Day, the breaking stuff was working enough to generate four strikeouts against the highly disciplined Royals.
Shane Bieber, Wicked 82mph Knuckle Curve. 🤢 pic.twitter.com/MuVkdwcljf
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 7, 2022
The guy can slice and dice lineups at any time, which is why he struck out more than six batters in his first 12 starts last season before succumbing to shoulder injuries.
The Reds strike out at a league-average rate, but there's reason to believe that could jump today. Today's umpire is Larry Vanover, who has posted a 1.16x K-boost in over 400 games behind the plate, per Swish Analytics.
Put it all together, and there's enough evidence that points to Bieber striking out six batters today.
Pick: Shane Bieber over 5.5 Ks (-155)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Mookie Betts over 1.5 Total Bases (+100)
| Dodgers vs. Twins | Dodgers -134 |
| First Pitch | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Chris Archer continues to hang around as a starting pitcher, and will now get the ball for the up-and-coming Twins.
But I doubt you're excited to back Archer. And I'm willing to fade him against this particular hitter.
In 45 lifetime PAs against Archer, Mookie has racked up 12 hits with four of them going for extra bases. Moreover, he whiffed only 15% of the time and picked up nine walks in the process.
In addition to controlling the strike zone and avoiding swings and misses, Betts also posted a 95.2 mph average exit velocity on batted balls against Archer.
They seem to be pretty comfortable with each other, too.
Mookie Betts personally flew Chris Archer to the MLB All-Star Game. pic.twitter.com/R0azEmGMrG
— Only In Boston (@OnlyInBOS) July 11, 2017
When you make contact and it's often hard-hit contact, you're going to rack up base totals.
Betts picked up four total bases in three games in Denver, so he's somewhat in form. I'll take a shot with Betts to go over his base total again today, just as long as we're getting plus-money odds.
Pick: Mookie Betts over 1.5 Total Bases (+100)
Dakota Hudson under 3.5 strikeouts (+126)
| Royals vs. Cardinals | Cardinals -168 |
| First Pitch | 7:45 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
For all their faults, the Royals do not swing and miss. Last season, Kansas City posted the third-lowest strikeout rate in MLB, at 21%. That number jumped on the road, but only a measly 1% and it was still fourth-best.
The addition of Bobby Witt Jr. should only help the Royals in this affair. He generally has a good command of the strike zone, posting a 9.1 BB% and a 22.5 K% in Triple-A last season.
Through a small sample size, that has rung true. The Royals have only struck out 22 times through four games, a 15.4% rate that's third-lowest in MLB.
Meanwhile, we're getting Dakota Hudson coming off Tommy John and making just his 10th start since 2019. But even before he got hurt, Hudson was only punching out about seven batters per nine innings. That translates to a 17% K rate that ranked in the bottom 15 percent of qualified pitchers.
There's just no way to trust Hudson in this spot. And against this disciplined Royals lineup, he's worth a full fade.
The projection market has Hudson in the 3.7 K range today, but that provides us solid value at +125 or better.
Pick: Dakota Hudson under 3.5 Ks (+126 at FanDuel)
Action Labs Grade: 7/10
