Another week of baseball, and another week of +EV pitcher props courtesy of our Action Labs projections.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Alex Cobb Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-138)
| Braves vs. Giants | Braves -185 |
| First Pitch | 9:45 p.m. EST |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
I like Alex Cobb. He's been one of the more undervalued pitchers this season. He's put up huge strikeout totals in the last few days, including 11 punchouts of the Cubs five starts ago.
However, this number is just a tad high.
Cobb has hit this mark in only 11 of his 23 starts this season. Despite posting more than nine strikeouts per nine innings, Cobb ranks below average in Swinging-Strike rate (10.3%) and about average in strikeouts per inning (1.05).
Cobb also facing a Braves lineup that mashes the ball. They strike out at a high rate but tend to knock out pitchers early with barrels and homers. Atlanta has held four of the previous five opposing pitchers under their strikeout total.
Our Action Labs Player Props tool projects Cobb for 4.9 strikeouts today. FanGraphs SaberSim projections also project Cobb for 4.9 Ks.
Both provide enough value to bet this number at this price.
Pick: Under 5.5 Ks (-138)
Action Labs Grade: 8/10
Eduardo Rodriguez Over 3.5 Strikeouts (+105)
| Astros vs. Tigers | Astros -200 |
| First Pitch | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
How are we supposed to bet a guy who has barely pitched this season?
Alongside Javier Baez, Eduardo Rodriguez was the big-name, splashy signing the Tigers made last offseason. Both have flopped, and the Tigers are in last place in the AL Central.
E-Rod has made just 12 starts this season. He didn't communicate with the club between mid-May and mid-August.
But when he is pitching, he records strikeouts. He's hit at least four Ks in eight of those 12 starts and in 36 of 46 starts dating back to the beginning of 2021 (78%).
Houston is a tough ball club, and the Astros make more contact than anyone in the league and strike out at a league-low rate against southpaws (18.1%). However, Rodriguez has had no trouble with the Astros, fanning at least four in four consecutive starts.
Rodriguez struck out eight the one time he faced Houston this season, allowing just one run over 6 2/3 innings of work.
The Action Labs Player Props Tool projects E-Rod for 4.9 strikeouts today. Yet we can bet over 3.5 Ks at plus-money.
Pick: Over 3.5 Ks (+105)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
