What's better than a near-full baseball slate that starts with an afternoon matinee?! Just two teams are off on this Friday, with the first game coming out in Chicago where the Cubs host the Toronto Blue Jays at 2:20 p.m. ET. We get to not only bring in the weekend with some early baseball, but Patrick Corbin also takes the mound — fade opportunities galore!
I'm here to give you as much information as possible regarding potential avenues for batting props for the upcoming Friday slate.
This article will have several parts. The first is the historical matchups between the projected starting pitcher and opposing hitters. I'll also break down the game where we expect the biggest boost in home runs because of the weather and end with a recap of which hitters are the hottest over the last couple of weeks. I may also sprinkle some narratives, like birthdays, for fun.
Let's dive into my MLB betting preview for hitter props on Friday, August 16th.
Charlie DiSturco's MLB Props Preview & Hitter Picks for Friday (Aug. 16)
MLB Hitter Props & Picks: DiSturco's Favorite MLB Batter vs. Pitcher Matchups For Wednesday
Bryce Harper vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP): You’re going to see a trend here — a LOT of Patrick Corbin. The Phillies face off against their division foe and Harper leads the way with 51 plate appearances. Despite a lefty-on-lefty matchup, Harper is hitting .326 with five doubles against Corbin. He actually hasn’t hit a home run yet off the southpaw.
J.T. Realmuto vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP): Realmuto really hasn’t been the same this season offensively, but he has crushed Corbin across 41 appearances. Realmuto is hitting .374 with a pair of home runs and doubles.
Alec Bohm vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP): Too much Corbin? Bohm has faced Corbin 28 times and is hitting .360 with a pair of home runs against the southpaw. Just about every Phillies hitter has gaudy numbers like this, so I’ll stop here.
Freddie Freeman vs. Miles Mikolas (RHP): Mikolas has also become a replacement-level pitcher and draws a tough matchup against the Dodgers today. Freeman has found the most success against the right-hander, with a .471 average and three home runs across 18 plate appearances.
Jurickson Profar vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP): The Padres continue their second-half surge and get another great matchup against the Rockies and Quantrill. Profar has seen the right-hander 15 times and has a .333 average and a pair of home runs to show for.
Josh Bell vs. Ryan Pepiot (RHP): The last one I’ll throw out there is Bell, facing Pepiot in his return from the injured list. In 10 at-bats, Bell has three hits, the lone extra base hit being a triple.
MLB Betting Preview Today: The Ballpark With the Largest Expected Home Run Boost Due To Weather
The wind is blowing out at Wrigley Field with mid-80 degree temperatures and that means one thing is expected today — home runs!
Based on a 135-game sample size, RotoGrinders’ WeatherEdge tool projects a +31% increase in home runs based on the conditions around game time. It’s also the first game on the docket.
Yariel Rodriguez takes the mound for Toronto in this interleague matchup. The right-hander has limited barrels at an elite rate (4.5%) this season, but ranks around the 50th percentile in just about every metric on Baseball Savant.
Due to the limited barrel rate, Rodriguez has actually given up just four home runs across his 12 starts. Now the weather is working completely against the right-hander which makes him more prone, and he isn’t a ground ball pitcher — so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him give up one or two today.
Seiya Suzuki (+300) and Michael Busch (+470) are the first two names that stick out to me on the Chicago side of things. These are the Cubs’ two best hitters in terms of wRC+ (128 vs. RHP each) and have extra base hit rates of 40%+ in this split.
Suzuki has not been swinging as hot a bat of late (.238 average in last 15, 1 HR), but he has been hitting the ball in the air a lot more and has seen his hard-hit rate gradually rise. As for Busch, the lefty has hit three home runs over his last 15 days.
If you want a long shot, Pete Crow-Armstrong (+600) has been slowly figuring things out at the plate. He’s high up on the rolling xwOBA leaderboard and in the last 15 days is hitting .275 with a near 50% extra base hit rate. His speed alone makes him a total bases threat and the wind could help him find the bleachers.
Opposite Rodriguez is the lowly Kyle Hendricks. This is a replacement-level pitcher (6.60 ERA) that can’t generate strikeouts and pitches to contact — which could be an issue in this weather. Hendricks does rank in the 87th percentile in hard-hit rate (32.8%) but also happens to be among the bottom 6% of all pitchers in xBA (.281).
Given the weather conditions, I would look to fade the right-hander. Even soft fly balls could carry far in Chicago.
We can get to the obvious choice immediately — Vlad Guerrero Jr. There’s not much I have to add about the superstar who has a 161 wRC+ against right-handed pitching and has 11 home runs in the last 30 days. You can never go wrong with him at +285.
Aside from Guerrero, Spencer Horwitz (+540) has been Toronto’s best hitter against right-handed pitching. The lefty has a 141 wRC+ and a 36% extra-base hit rate. He isn’t an overpowering hitter, rather rarely strikes out and always seems to find the sweet-spot of the bat (38.9%).
Like on Wednesday, there are ample options to choose from here. I would likely pass on Suzuki because of the prize and focus toward Busch and Crow-Armstrong. For Toronto, Horwitz is my favorite value play and his RBI prop (+140) is a +10.6% edge per our Action Pro projections.
- Check out our MLB Betting Hub for more previews from today's slate.
MLB Betting Preview: Who's Hot
There’s a lot of familiar faces on this list, like Joc Pederson, who continues to mash at the plate. The lefty has hit four home runs and carries a 1.158 OPS over the last 15 days.
He does draw an interesting matchup against the aforementioned Ryan Pepiot, who returns from the injured list to face the scorching-hot Snakes. Pepiot ranks in the bottom 15% of all pitchers in barrel rate (9.9%) and is a fly-ball pitcher.
This could work against him vs. a hitter like Pederson and even Geraldo Perdomo. The latter is hitting .326 over the last 15 days with four doubles and a home run.
But we have to talk about a new addition to the list, Mr. Paul DeJong!
Over the last 15 days, the middle infielder has hit .318 with a pair of home runs. He doesn’t play everyday and is a depth piece for Kansas City, but it’s interesting to note that he’s hitting over .300 since becoming a Royal.
It’s a particularly tough matchup today against Nick Martinez, a pitcher who limits barrels and hard hits at an elite rate. But DeJong does do his best damage against righties — so keep that in mind this weekend.
We talked about Bryce Harper in the batter vs. pitcher section. He does not have a home run against Patrick Corbin in his career, but this could be the time for it. It feels like Harper and the Phillies as a whole have broken through their offensive slump.
Harper in particular has been crushing the ball at the plate. He is hitting .346 with a pair of home runs and an OPS just shy of 1.000 over the last 15 days. He is split proof — in fact better against left-handed pitching this season!
Keep an eye on him here vs. Corbin who should not be pitching in the majors anymore.
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MLB Betting Preview: Birthdays?!
Michael Toglia: Toglia does get his worse split here against right-hander Matt Waldron, but it’s worth pointing out that he does have a hit in eight straight games entering Friday night. Waldron is a high fly-ball pitcher, which plays well into an all-or-nothing type hitter like Toglia (17.4% barrel rate, 51.2% hard-hit rate and a 31.4 K%).
Dominic Canzone: Happy birthday, Dominic! Your gift? Facing Paul Skenes! If Julio Rodriguez stays out, we’ll see the lefty Canzone at the plate. You can take a swing here with Skenes, who has seen his velocity dip a touch over the last few starts and looks more human — but also don’t be shocked if Skenes strikes out 10 across seven shutout innings.
Connor Joe: Two birthday boys in the same game?! Joe also has a nightmare matchup against Logan Gilbert, one of the best pitchers in the American League. Joe also really struggles against right-handed pitchers (.218 average, .632 OPS), so I would be a tad cautious with him here.
Tyler Stephenson: Probably the best birthday matchup of all the hitters, Stephenson draws Michael Lorenzen, who ranks in the bottom 20% of all pitchers in xERA (4.75). He is a negative regression candidate that does not strike out many batters, either. Stephenson has five home runs over his last 15 days.
