The end of the week is finally here and what better than a loaded Friday slate to take us home? While the Texas Rangers and New York Yankees series opener has been postponed, we've got a doubleheader between AL Central rivals in the Cleveland Guardians and Minnesota Twins to make up for it. Nothing better than an appetizer at 2:10 p.m. ET prior to a 14-game night slate.
I'm here to give you as much information as possible regarding potential avenues for batting props for the upcoming slate.
This article will have several parts. The first is the historical matchups between the projected starting pitcher and opposing hitters. I'll also break down the game where we expect the biggest boost in home runs because of the weather and end with a recap of which hitters are the hottest over the last couple of weeks.
Let's dive into my MLB props preview & hitter picks for Friday.
Charlie DiSturco's MLB Props Preview & Hitter Picks for Friday (Aug. 9)
Batter vs. Pitcher Historical Matchups
Josh Bell vs. Zack Wheeler (RHP): Once again we find Bell on this list with Friday’s most extensive history vs. another pitcher. Against Wheeler, Bell has hit .302 with four home runs and a pair of doubles across 46 plate appearances.
Adam Frazier vs. Miles Mikolas (RHP): Mikolas has long been a replacement level pitcher and Frazier has taken advantage in his 35 plate appearances, hitting .382 with four doubles and two triples. He has not homered, but that’s not surprising from the lefty.
Justin Turner vs. Jose Quintana (LHP): Speaking of replacement level pitchers, hello Quintana! Turner has 26 plate appearances against the southpaw and is hitting .300 with just one extra base hit. He’s walked five times, too.
Christian Vazquez vs. Alex Cobb (RHP): In the night cap of the double header, Cobb makes his Guardians debut. He’ll be met by Vazquez, who has a .591 average in 22 at-bats. He has just one extra base hit (a double).
Jason Heyward vs. Mitch Keller (RHP): In 18 plate appearances, Heyward is hitting .278 against Keller. He has more extra base hits (3) than he does singles (2), with a home run to show for. It’s also his birthday, for what it’s worth. Do with that what you will.
Jose Ramirez vs. Bailey Ober (RHP): In the first game of the double header, Ober will have his hands full against Ramirez. Across 15 plate appearances, the switch-hitting superstar is hitting .385 with a home run and two doubles against Ober.
Gunnar Henderson vs. Zack Littell (RHP): Henderson has Littell's number in 10 at-bats, hitting .500 with a double and two home runs.
Ballpark With the Largest Expected Home Run Boost Due To Weather
In a crosstown rivalry, the Chicago Cubs and White Sox meet up in the South Side for a two-game set. Jameson Taillon takes the mound for the Cubs while the White Sox send out ace Garrett Crochet.
Per RotoGrinders’ WeatherEdge system, the wind is blowing out to dead center at 12 miles per hour. It’ll be mid-70s temperature wise and based on a 66-game sample, there’s an expected +31.5% home run boost.
Now is that the case? I’d be a bit hesitant that Taillon and Crochet will be crushed. They are two above average arms capable of shutting down opponents with ease.
Let’s start with the more susceptible one in my opinion, Taillon. The right-hander ranks right at the 50th percentile in barrels (7.6%) and is a fly ball pitcher. That’s the avenue to success for these White Sox bats.
Taillon does not strike out many batters — career-low 19% strikeout rate — but carries elite control and does limit hard hits (36.3%). He has allowed a home run in eight of his last nine starts.
The issue? These White Sox bats are, well… not great. Luis Robert Jr. is the player that I would circle on the ChiSox side, purely because of his power. He is in the 88th percentile of all batters in barrel rate (13.5%) but also strikes out at one of the highest rates in MLB (36%).
Robert leads all White Sox in home runs vs. right-handed pitching (11), followed by Andrew Benintendi and Andrew Vaugh, who have 10 apiece. All three have a wRC+ between 83-86, so below average, but that’s the majority of this White Sox offense. So tread with caution.
Garrett Crochet is among MLB’s elite. He’s in the top 5% of all pitchers in xBA (.195), xERA (2.57) and strikeout rate (33.9%). He has given up a home run in each of his last two starts, but had given up just one across his nine prior.
Among all major league pitchers, Crochet’s weakest area is hard-hit rate (37%, 63rd percentile), which is still well above average. He is barreled just under a percent less than Taillon.
I’m hesitant on the Cubs side of things too when it comes to bats to back. Ian Happ leads the team in isolated power and home runs against left-handed pitching, but is also slumping incredibly hard the last month (.167 average, .596 OPS).
My choice, if I were to bet on this, is Seiya Suzuki. He carries a 121 wRC+ against southpaws and has a +4 run value against hte four-seam fastball, which Crochet throws the most.
He has just three home runs in 91 plate appearances against left-handed pitching this season, but does rank in the 91st percentile of all hitters in hard-hit rate (49.6%) and 83rd percentile in barrel rate (12.3%).
The weather is perfect for some home runs in Chicago but the teams definitely have a lot working against them. But my two choices would be Robert and Suzuki here.
Who’s Hot?
I’m including the top 11 of the rolling xwOBA leaderboard because Julio Rodriguez will remain a mainstay until he returns from injury. Unfortunately, Baseball Savant does not take out injured players from the mix.
Joc Pederson is the new No. 1 on Friday’s list! He also has an extremely tough matchup against right-hander Zack Wheeler. In 19 at-bats against Wheeler, Pederson has two hits. He’s struck out eight times.
But over the last 15 days, Pederson has been on another level. He’s hitting .370 with four home runs and an OPS over 1.400.
We talked earlier about Ramirez and his success against Ober. He has been absolutely crushing it at the plate of late. Over the last 15 days, Ramirez is hitting .362 with six home runs and a 59% extra base hit rate. He is worth a look vs. Ober today, and even Varland later tonight.
But let’s talk about the Giants, because the duo of Michael Conforto and Heliot Ramos are absolutely on fire. Conforto is hitting .341 with two home runs and a 57% extra base hit rate over the last 15 days. In that same span, Ramos is at .283 with three home runs.
What’s most interesting is that Ramos not having eye-popping numbers means that he is underperforming and could be a great buy-low candidate.
The issue? We don’t know who is starting for the Detroit Tigers today, as is tradition. Aside from Tarik Skubal and Keider Montero, there are no healthy starters in the rotation. Kenta Maeda often pitches out of bulk every 5-6 days and he hasn’t pitched since Saturday, so I would expect some sort of action from him today.
If, closer to game time, reports come out that Maeda is expected for bulk innings, I would fire away at both Ramos and Conforto in the total bases and home run market. Maeda is among the worst starters in all of baseball and has trouble limiting barrels (9.2%), xBA (.277) and is a heavy fly ball pitcher.
So keep an eye out to the news, or follow my Action app. I’ll be posting if I see anything.
I don’t have to add much about Vlad Guerrero Jr. The man is on another planet right now and the Athletics are better off walking the slugger than pitching to him right now. But he’s always a great look in the total bases and home run department the way he’s seeing the ball.
