It's a new week in MLB and plenty of playoff races are starting to heat up in the home stretch. There are just 11 games on tap for this Monday slate, headlined by a must-watch matchup between Chris Sale and the Atlanta Braves vs. Blake Snell and the San Francisco Giants.
I'm here to give you as much information as possible regarding potential avenues for batting props for the upcoming Monday slate.
This article will have several parts. The first is the historical matchups between the projected starting pitcher and opposing hitters. I'll also break down the game where we expect the biggest boost in home runs because of the weather and end with a recap of which hitters are the hottest over the last couple of weeks.
Let's dive into my MLB betting preview for hitter props on Monday, August 12th.
Charlie DiSturco's MLB Props Preview & Hitter Picks for Monday (Aug. 12)
MLB Hitter Props & Picks: DiSturco's Favorite MLB Batter vs. Pitcher Matchups For Monday
Max Kepler vs. Brady Singer (RHP): Singer has struggled against left-handed hitters this season and gets a tough matchup on deck with Kepler. The veteran outfielder is hitting .250 against Singer, but all five hits have gone for extra bases (including two homers).
Freddie Freeman vs. Freddy Peralta (RHP): Peralta is the definition of hit or miss, and we noted that the last time he took the mound, where Austin Riley had such dominant numbers against him. Freeman has seen Peralta 19 times in his career and has a .278 average to show for it. He does have a home run among his five hits.
Byron Buxton vs. Brady Singer (RHP): I noted Singer’s struggles vs. left-handed hitters (.296 average, .859 OPS). Well, how about a righty who has crushed him? Fresh off a two-homer game, Buxton gets Singer, against whom he is hitting .467 in his career with two home runs.
Whit Merrifield vs. Blake Snell (LHP): The veteran Merrifield has faced Snell 15 times in his career and has gotten the best of the southpaw to his credit. Merrifield has hit .500 with a home run and two doubles.
Manny Machado vs. Marco Gonzales (LHP): I noted this matchup on Payoff Pitch for Monday’s slate. Machado has been on fire lately and draws a friendly matchup against the soft-tossing lefty Gonzales. In 11 at-bats, Machado has a pair of doubles to show for. He is hitting .546 against Gonzales.
Nolan Arenado vs. Andrew Abbott (LHP): Arenado also gets a favorable matchup against a southpaw, this one a divisional bout. Abbott has faced Arenado 11 times, with the latter having two home runs and a .500 average.
MLB Betting Preview Today: The Ballpark With the Largest Expected Home Run Boost Due To Weather
There aren’t many hitter-friendly matchups in terms of the weather on Monday. But where we can find the most significant boost is out in Boston, where the wind is blowing out nine miles per hour toward right field in 73-degree temperatures.
Based on RotoGrinders’ WeatherEdge, there is an expected +8.1% increase in home runs. It’s a matchup between Tyler Mahle and Brayan Bello, who returns from paternity leave to make his first start as a new dad.
Mahle debuted last week and threw five innings of one-run ball against the Astros. He has barely pitched in each of the last two seasons but has a ton of upside and elite swing-and-miss stuff.
Throughout his career, his issue has been dealing with the long ball (1.38 HR/9), making him an interesting matchup tonight. He struggles to limit barrels and had given up a home run in four of his five starts last season.
I would be a bit cautious here, but Rafael Devers (+340) is the name to target. Over the past 15 days, Devers has been hitting .340 with an OPS of over 1.000. A whopping 65% of his hits have gone for extra bases.
Devers is also No. 1 on the team regarding wRC+ (187) and isolated power (.358) against right-handed pitching. He has 21 home runs, eight more than the next-best Red Sox hitter.
Wilyer Abreu (+500) is a name that pops up early on the rolling xwOBA list at Baseball Savant and is another viable option here. He is third on the team in wRC+ (139) and isolated power (.255).
Abreu has had three home runs over the past 15 days (.270 average, .925) OPS and has crushed right-handed pitching (.281, .885 OPS).
As for Bello, he has been very inconsistent this season — and who knows how well he’s slept of late thanks to a newborn. Bello ranks in the 16th percentile of all pitchers in hard-hit rate allowed (43%) but also keeps the ball on the ground at over a 50% rate. Bello has allowed at least one home in each of his past six starts and 9-of-11 overall.
Corey Seager (+360) is the obvious choice here for Texas. He is the Rangers’ best hitter against righties (156 wRC+ .266 ISO) among those with 50+ plate appearances. Seager has hit .292 with a near-1.000 OPS against right-handed pitching, with a team-high 20 home runs.
He has also been crushing the ball lately, with six home runs over the past 15 days. Backing Seager is never a bad idea to do some damage.
If you want a real long shot, Josh Smith (+800) is down the board and has been a tremendous left-handed bat toward the top of the Texas lineup. He has eight home runs against righties this season with a 117 wRC+ — he’s one of three everyday players with an above-average wRC+ against righties.
Smith had a down start to the month but is coming off back-to-back two-hit games against the Yankees.
- Check out our MLB Betting Hub for more previews from today's slate.
MLB Betting Preview: Who’s Hot?
The Houston Astros offense is starting to take off, largely thanks to Yordan Alvarez’s (+310) dominance at the plate. He has soared up in Baseball Savant’s xwOBA rolling graph.
Over the last 15 days, Alvarez is hitting .362 with five home runs and a 1.206 OPS. In four of his last five games, he’s gone deep and has become a pitch-around candidate. He has walked at least once in six of his last seven games.
He gets a tough matchup against Taj Bradley on Monday, who possesses elite swing-and-miss stuff. But Bradley’s one downfall is a 10.8% barrel rate — which Alvarez could take advantage of.
Matt Wallner (+440) is an intriguing name and has joined the top five alongside familiar faces in this section, like Michael Conforto and Joc Pederson. Wallner is a lefty who can often find himself pinch hit for late if a lefty-lefty matchup arises (just 11 ABs vs. LHP).
But Wallner does have a hit in each of his last six games, with a home run and three doubles to show for it. He gets a great matchup against right-hander Brady Singer. I mentioned the struggles with left-handed hitters earlier, and this could be a good spot for Wallner to take advantage of.
The last guy I’ll talk about here is Michael Busch (+550), another lefty bat with a plus matchup against a righty today. Busch is hitting .293 over the last 15 days with four home runs, and his OPS against right-handed pitching for the year sits at .822.
Lively takes the mound for Cleveland against Busch, and he’s struggled to generate both whiffs (19.1%, 8th percentile) and chases. He is a fly-ball pitcher who has struggled to limit hard hits.
Lively has allowed a home run in six of his last seven starts and 2+ home runs in four of nine games (44%).
