Every team is in action on this fine Wednesday, and we finally have some afternoon baseball to start us off!
The Royals and Twins will square off to open the day at 1:10 p.m. ET, with the Rockies and Diamondbacks just a couple of hours later.
There aren't many elite arms taking the mound today, which gives us the potential to take advantage in the hitting prop market.
I'm here to give you as much information as possible regarding potential avenues for batting props for the upcoming Wednesday slate.
This article will have several parts. The first is the historical matchups between the projected starting pitcher and opposing hitters. I'll also break down the game where we expect the biggest boost in home runs because of the weather and end with a recap of which hitters are the hottest over the last couple of weeks. I may also sprinkle some narratives, like birthdays, for fun.
Let's dive into my MLB betting preview for hitter props on Wednesday, August 14th
Charlie DiSturco's MLB Props Preview & Hitter Picks for Wednesday (Aug. 14)
MLB Hitter Props & Picks: DiSturco's Favorite MLB Batter vs. Pitcher Matchups For Wednesday
Shohei Ohtani vs. Frankie Montas (RHP): Leading today’s leaderboard is Ohtani, who has crushed Montas in his career. The lefty has faced Montas 32 times, hitting .370 with a .926 slugging percentage. Of his 10 hits against the right-hander, half have left the park.
Andrew McCutchen vs. Martin Perez (LHP): Perez is not very good. McCutchen is among those with plenty of success against the southpaw, hitting. 286 with three doubles across 21 at-bats.
Michael Taylor vs. Martin Perez (LHP): Taylor has always crushed Perez in far fewer at-bats. He is hitting .417 against the southpaw with a double in 12 at-bats.
Mookie Betts vs. Frankie Montas (RHP): There aren’t many pitchers today with familiarity vs. the opposition so we repeat with a Montas fade here. Betts has returned to the Dodgers lineup and gets another good matchup against Montas, who he is hitting .455 against with a home run in 11 at-bats.
Manny Machado vs. Mitch Keller (RHP): Machado has faced Keller 11 times and is hitting .333 with a home run in those limited plate appearances. He has walked two of those 11 plate appearances.
Ty France vs. Kyle Gibson (RHP): France has just 11 plate appearances against Gibson but has crushed him to a .625 average and 1.000 slugging percentage. He does have a homer off the right-hander.
Jake Fraley vs. Kyle Gibson (RHP): Like France, Fraley has a limited number of plate appearances (10) against Gibson but has taken advantage in that short span. The lefty has hit two home runs and is .556 against the right-hander.
MLB Betting Preview Today: The Ballpark With the Largest Expected Home Run Boost Due To Weather
Usually, I shy away from RotoGrinders’ WeatherEdge system when the sample size is limited. But this game is far too intriguing to pass up, even if it’s based on 19 other games in similar conditions.
We head out to San Diego, where the wind is blowing at 8 mph to the right field in 80-degree temperatures. Based on that small sample, RotoGrinders projects a +34.2% increase in home runs hit.
That’s close to wind blowing out at Wrigley Field level high.
Martin Perez takes the mound for the Padres, and he’s a perfect fade candidate. The southpaw ranks in the bottom 6% of all pitchers in both xERA (5.49) and xBA (.284). He is barreled nearly 10% of the time and doesn't generate whiffs.
In other words, he relies on inducing soft contact to get easy outs. Which he often fails to do.
Regarding small samples, Joey Bart (+560) has been on a tear at the plate and easily comes in as the Pirates’ best bat against left-handed pitching. In 43 plate appearances, Bart has a 215 wRC+ with three home runs and a 33% extra-base hit rate.
Over the past 15 days, Bart is hitting .340 with a 1.009 OPS. He has four home runs in that span. This could be a good buy spot for Bart, who caught Perez earlier this season when the Southpaw was in Pittsburgh. Familiarity could work to his advantage here.
Besides Bart, two names worth looking at are Bryan Reynolds (110 wRC+) and Bryan De La Cruz.
Reynolds (+600) is the best hitter on this team and has hit .284 against left-handed pitching this season. I would be cautious backing him because his OPS drops 100 points against southpaws. He has five home runs, which is somehow a team lead, but only 27.5% of his hits have gone for extra bases.
De La Cruz (+600) is an intriguing name and had a 102 wRC+ against left-handed pitching when he was with Miami. He generally finds more success against southpaws (.272 vs. .222), with a 34% extra-base hit rate.
Perez has allowed a home run in four of his last five starts and two or more home runs in two (40%). He has pitched well since being acquired by San Diego, but I expect him to revert to his proper form soon enough.
Opposite Perez is Mitch Keller, one of Pittsburgh’s most reliable arms over the last few seasons. He has shored up his barrel rate nearly 2% year over year but has dealt with some home run issues of late.
Keller's allowed a longball in five of his past seven outings (71%). He has allowed 2+ in two of those (28.5%).
Jackson Merrill (+625) has been mashing the ball lately and is one of the best Padres against right-handed pitching (143 wRC+). Over the last 15 days, Merrill is hitting .304 with a 1.085 OPS. He has five home runs in that span.
Jake Cronenworth (+650) is another tremendous option for this lefty-on-righty matchup. He and Jurickson Profar are tied for the team lead in home runs (13) against righties, with the former having an OPS of just over .800 in that split.
This is a good buy spot on Keller, who is not swinging a hot bat right now. But he is inside the top five in wRC+ (128) on the team against righties.
There are a lot of options for this game in which home runs are expected to be flowing. A reminder to not spread yourself too thin. I will likely sprinkle on Bart and Merrill.
- Check out our MLB Betting Hub for more previews from today's slate.
MLB Betting Preview: Who’s Hot?
The Detroit Tigers just hung 15 runs against the Seattle Mariners last night, and both Parker Meadows and Javy Baez find themselves inside the top five on the rolling xwOBA leaderboard.
Brayan Woo takes the mound for Seattle, so I’d be cautious here. The right-hander has allowed just a 2% barrel rate and ranks in the 99th percentile in xERA (2.24). He features elite control and has allowed a home run in just 4 of 13 starts (31%).
Meadows has been a hit machine but has little power (one homer in his past 30 days).
Right-hander Grant Holmes takes the mound for Atlanta, and while he has elite swing-and-miss stuff, we saw some cracks in his last couple of starts. Holmes has struggled mostly against left-handed hitters this season (.266 average vs. 205) but has largely limited damage in the power department.
Michael Conforto (+680) squares off against Holmes, and despite his struggles over the past week (.182 average), he remains second in the rolling xwOBA leaderboard. That would suggest that he’s been a bit unlucky at the plate.
Austin Riley (+450) plays in that game against Robbie Ray and is probably my favorite in this top 10 to homer. He has been crushing the ball over the last 15 days (.333 average, 4 HRs, 40% extra-base hit rate) and could find the outfield seats — even in a big park like San Francisco.
Ray has home run issues in general. His barrel rate (11.4%) remains a concern, and Ray’s biggest downfall — despite elite swing-and-miss stuff — is that he allows too much hard-hit fly-ball contact.
In his four starts this season, Ray has allowed a home run in half of them. But they come in bunches against the southpaw, with three home runs allowed to Oakland and a pair his next time out vs. Cincinnati.
- Check out more Daily MLB Odds
MLB Betting Preview: Birthdays?!
Colt Keith (DET): Keith faces a tough matchup against right-hander Bryan Woo on Wednesday. The rookie has a .247/.303/.384 slash against right-handed pitching and has struggled over the last 15 days. He has just one extra-base hit in August.
TJ Friedl (CIN): Friedl, on the other hand, has a plus matchup against right-hander Kyle Gibson. The lefty has been much better at the plate recently, hitting .269 with a pair of home runs over the last week. He doesn't have much pop but is 3-for-5 lifetime against Gibson.
Johan Rojas (PHI): Rojas is hitting .239 this season and bats at the bottom of this Phillies lineup. He does have a double in two of his last three games and squares off against right-hander Edward Cabrera on Wednesday. Cabrera is in the bottom 4% of all pitchers in hard-hit rate allowed and is erratic (high Ks, high BBs).
Josh Bell (ARI): Bell might have the best matchup of all the birthday boys on Wednesday, facing off against right-hander Tanner Gordon and the Rockies. Gordon has struggled to keep the ball in the park (seven homers allowed in 26 1/3 innings) and doesn't generate many whiffs in his limited time. Bell is best against right-handed pitching — 12 HRs and a 36% extra-base hit rate — and has nine home runs over the last 30 days. He is crushing the ball.
David Peralta (SD): We talked about the plus-hitting conditions out in San Diego today, and Peralta is crushing the ball of late. Over the last 15 days, he has three home runs and a 1.055 OPS. The 37-year-old veteran hit a home run last night in a 3-0 win.
