Happy Wednesday everybody! There isn't much better than an entire slate that starts early in the afternoon. This is a stacked day highlighted by a matchup between two of the American League's best in the Guardians and Yankees, and an NL East rivalry between the Phillies and Braves, where the latter is clinging onto the last wild-card spot.
I'm here to give you as much information as possible regarding potential avenues for batting props for the upcoming Wednesday slate. For the sake of timeliness, I did not include the first couple of games here.
This article will have several parts. The first is the historical matchups between the projected starting pitcher and opposing hitters. I'll also break down the game where we expect the biggest boost in home runs because of the weather and end with a recap of which hitters are the hottest over the last couple of weeks. I may also sprinkle some narratives, like birthdays, for fun.
Let's dive into my MLB betting preview for hitter props for Wednesday, August 21.
Charlie DiSturco's MLB Props Preview & Hitter Picks for Wednesday (Aug. 21)
MLB Hitter Props & Picks: DiSturco's Favorite MLB Batter vs. Pitcher Matchups For Wednesday
Trea Turner vs. Max Fried (LHP): Anytime you get a Phillies-Braves matchup, there’ll be plenty of prior history. Turner has absolutely crushed Fried in his lifetime, hitting .395 across 47 plate appearances. He has three home runs and three doubles.
J.T. Realmuto vs. Max Fried (LHP): One plate appearance less than Turner, Realmuto has done similar damage to Fried. The catcher is hitting .381 with four home runs and a 44% extra-base hit rate.
Bryce Harper vs. Max Fried (LHP): The last one I’ll throw out here is Harper in a lefty-lefty matchup. He is hitting .303 with a pair of home runs in 40 plate appearances. He’s walked six times and has a .410 OBP against the southpaw.
Adam Duvall vs. Aaron Nola (RHP): Unfortunately, Austin Riley is injured and he’s absolutely crushed Nola throughout his career. But Duvall has the second-best numbers against the right-hander, hitting .275 with three home runs and a pair of doubles across 40 at-bats.
Javier Baez vs. Jameson Taillon (RHP): The free-swinging Baez is back in Chicago and has a matchup against Taillon, one that he’s crushed to the tune of a .571 average and 50% extra-base hit rate. Baez has two home runs against the right-hander.
Marcus Semien vs. Domingo German (RHP): Semien has been a hit machine against German, with a .375 average across 16 at-bats. He also has a 50% extra-base hit rate against the right-hander (1 HR).
Michael A. Taylor vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP): This one has been a short-lived historical matchup, but Taylor has gotten the best of Heaney in nine at-bats. Taylor has hit two home runs and a 75% extra-base hit rate against the southpaw in his lifetime.
MLB Betting Preview Today: The Ballpark With the Largest Expected Home Run Boost Due To Weather
We already saw a crazy extra-innings bout between the Guardians and Yankees last night, and Wednesday could see no shortage of offense. The wind is blowing out at 11 miles per hour to right field in 70 degree temperatures, and RotoGrinders’ biggest expected home run boost per its WeatherEdge system.
As seen above, based on a 60-game sample, there is an expected +25.5% increase in home runs hit.
Southpaw Joey Cantillo takes the mound for his fourth start of his career for the Guardians. He’s already been through the gauntlet — Phillies, Orioles, Twins — and today does not get any easier.
In his limited time in the bigs, Cantillo has struggled on the mound (7.24 xERA). His command has been shaky and he hasn’t generated many strikeouts (15.5%). But perhaps most concerning is the 48.8% hard-hit rate and 9.3% barrel rate in his 13 innings. In his three games, Cantillo has allowed 2+ home runs twice thus far. I’d expect something similar here.
The obvious choice for the Yankees is Aaron Judge (+235). He has absolutely dominated against left-handed pitching — 227 wRC+, .716 slugging — and leads the Yankees in home runs against southpaws.
There’s not much more to add to that. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s pitched around nearly every at-bat, especially with a lefty on the mound. I’d expect Cantillo to try and go at Juan Soto (+350), who has the best value on this board from a Yankees point of view.
But Soto has been split proof. His OPS remains above 1.000 against left-handed pitching and he actually has just one fewer home run than Judge against southpaws this season.
If you want a long shot on the Yankees, Gleyber Torres (+500) is the name to target here. He has a 145 wRC+ against left-handed pitching over the last 30 days with a pair of home runs.
Opposite Cantillo is Nestor Cortes, who is a home run threat as well. He is a fly-ball pitcher that struggles to limit hard hits (43.6%, 13th percentile) and is being barreled at the highest rate of his career (8.6%).
Cortes has allowed a home run in seven of his last nine games. In 24% of his starts this season, he’s allowed at least two home runs, too.
Keeping that in mind, the obvious is Jose Ramirez (+400). He has absolutely dominated against left-handed pitching this season (200 wRC+, .707 slugging) with a team-best 12 home runs. It is interesting to note that Ramirez does have a home run against Cortes, in fact it’s his only hit in 13 at-bats.
Other than Ramirez, I would look toward Jhonkensy Noel (+390), who in 38 at-bats against lefties this season, has five home runs. He is third on the team in wRC+ (166) and just behind Ramirez in slugging (.706).
For what it’s worth, Andres Gimenez (+1300) is Action Network Pro projection’s No. 1 home run edge in this game (+8.5%), though the matchup isn’t necessarily favorable.
- Check out our MLB Betting Hub for more previews from today's slate.
MLB Betting Preview: Who's Hot
We have a new No. 1 on this leaderboard of rolling xwOBA!
In a Mariners offense that has largely struggled all season, Luke Raley has broken through as a reliable middle-of-the-order bat. In the last 15 days, Raley is hitting .296 with three home runs.
Looking at his xwOBA (.444) over those 50 plate appearances, you could even argue that he’s been unlucky. He does draw a tough matchup against Jack Flaherty tonight, so be a bit cautious here. Flaherty actually finds more success against lefties.
We talked about Harper earlier in the batter vs. pitcher section and he’s definitely a name to keep in the back of your mind down the stretch here. After a horrible stretch, Harper’s hard-hit rate is starting to surge up. It’s only a matter of time before he hits his stride.
Perhaps the most intriguing name on this new leaderboard is Corbin Carroll! It seems like the lefty is back to full health and his power is back. From the start of the season through June, Carroll had just two home runs.
But in July, we saw Carroll break out to the tune of six home runs. But it’s the last 15 days that are worth noting. Carroll has hit six home runs — yes, 43% of his total home runs — in this near two-week span!
Roddery Munoz takes the mound against Carroll today and is definitely a fade candidate. The rookie right-hander ranks in the bottom 10% of all pitchers in xBA (.279), barrels (13.3%), hard-hit rate (45.2%) and ground ball rate (34.4%).
That means lots of hard hit balls in the air — a perfect recipe for home runs. Carroll’s red-hot stretch could continue as the Diamondbacks remain one of the best second-half offenses in baseball despite Ketel Marte landing on the injured list.
- Check out more Daily MLB Odds
MLB Betting Preview: Birthdays?! It's Party Time
Corbin Carroll vs. Roddery Munoz (RHP): Oh would you look at that?! Perfect segue into the birthdays. Can the red-hot Carroll bring it home today vs. Munoz?
Brandon Drury vs. Michael Lorenzen (RHP): Drury has really struggled at the plate and is hitting .159 this season with just one home run. If there were ever a matchup for him to take advantage, it’s against Lorenzen, who is due for negative regression. Lorenzen has struggled with command and has allowed a career-worst 8.3% barrel rate.
Christian Vazquez vs. Matt Waldron (RHP): Vazquez is inside the top 10 of xwOBA leaderboard and has been red-hot at the plate. Over the last month, Vazquez is hitting .396 with three home runs and a 1.080 OPS.
Happy birthday also to J.D. Martinez, though the game already started by the time this piece dropped.
