The end of the work week is here, and what better way to bring in the weekend than with a stacked MLB slate?! Every team is in action tonight, highlighted by a bout between two playoff hopefuls in the San Diego Padres and New York Mets. We also get a battle between American League heavyweights in the Houston Astros and Baltimore Orioles.
I'm here to give you as much information as possible regarding potential avenues for batting props for the upcoming Friday slate.
This article will have several parts. The first is the historical matchups between the projected starting pitcher and opposing hitters. I'll also break down the game where we expect the biggest boost in home runs because of the weather and end with a recap of which hitters have been the hottest over the last couple of weeks. I may also sprinkle some narratives, like birthdays, for fun.
Let's dive into my MLB betting preview for hitter props for Friday, August 23.
MLB Hitter Props & Picks: DiSturco's Favorite MLB Batter vs. Pitcher Matchups For Friday
Francisco Lindor vs. Joe Musgrove (RHP): Lindor is surging at the plate as the Mets make a playoff push, and he’s crushed Musgrove to the tune of a .304 average and two home runs across 23 at-bats. He has more extra-base hits (4) than singles (3) against the right-hander.
Kyle Schwarber vs. Michael Wacha (RHP): Schwarber leads today’s slate in home runs vs. the opposing starting pitcher, hitting four against Wacha in his career. He has hit .368 in 23 plate appearances.
Bryce Harper vs. Michael Wacha (RHP): While Harper is homerless against Wacha, he does have a .316 average in 19 at-bats and two doubles against him.
Jose Iglesias vs. Joe Musgrove (RHP): In 15 at-bats, Jose Iglesias is hitting .400 against Musgrove. He has a 50% extra base hit rate against the right-hander with a home run.
Tyler Stephenson vs. Bailey Falter (LHP): Stephenson is hitting .462 against the southpaw in 13 at-bats with a home run.
Marcell Ozuna vs. MacKenzie Gore (LHP): Ozuna has gotten the best of Gore in 12 at-bats, hitting .417 with a home run. Funny enough, for a slugger like Ozuna, four of his five hits against Gore have been singles.
MLB Betting Preview Today: The Ballpark With the Largest Expected Home Run Boost Due To Weather
The biggest edge when it comes to weather on Friday’s slate is in Boston, where the ArizonaDiamondbacks look to continue their second-half surge against the Red Sox.
As you can see from RotoGrinders’ WeatherEdge projections, there is an expected +15.7% boost in home runs based on a 171-game sample.
We’ll start with the Red Sox offense, which draws a matchup with Ryne Nelson. The right-hander has really come on strong in the second half of the season with a 2.89 ERA and just two home runs across six starts, though those home runs have come in his last two outings.
Nelson’s biggest downfall has been a lack of strikeouts and whiffs — he ranks in the bottom 5% of all pitchers in whiff rate. The right-hander does give up a lot of hard-hit balls (40.7%, 33rd percentile), though he’s nearly cut his HR/9 in half.
The obvious choice to take advantage here is Rafael Devers, who has absolutely crushed right-handed pitching this season. He leads the team in wRC+ (182) and has 23 home runs against righties.
Devers has slumped a touch of late, with a .220 average and two home runs in his last 50 plate appearances. But he’s never a bad look. The other issue with Devers is that he is often pitched around and has an extremely high walk rate (12.9%) against righties. But when he gets a chance, he often takes advantage.
The other two options I’ll throw out are Jarren Duran and Triston Casas. Both of these left-handed hitters have crushed righties this season.
Duran has really taken a step into stardom over in Boston. He has a 155 wRC+ (second on team) and 14 home runs against righties this season. He is crushing the ball over the last week, too, with three home runs and a 60% extra-base hit rate.
As for Casas, 26% of his total hits against right-handed pitching have been homers. He was having a strong start to the season before battling injury, but has returned and is hitting .348 in 23 at-bats since (1 HR).
Opposite Nelson is Brayan Bello, a bit of a Jekyll & Hyde pitcher this season. He keeps the ball on the ground at an elite rate (51%, 87th percentile), but he has also allowed a home run in seven of his last eight starts despite that ground-ball rate.
Corbin Carroll remains a buy at the plate. It seems as though his injury has been put in the rearview mirror and we’ve seen both power and success follow suit. In the last 15 days, Carroll has five home runs and a .283 average.
Aside from Carroll, I’d look toward the lefty Joc Pederson. He has crushed right-handed pitching all season (166 wRC+) and leads the Diamondbacks in home runs (19) against righties. He remains one of the hottest hitters in baseball in this platoon against right-handed pitching, hitting .368 in the last 30 days with seven home runs.
MLB Betting Preview: Who’s Hot?
We have a new No. 1 in the rolling leaderboard, and it’s none other than surging MVP candidate Francisco Lindor!
The switch-hitting shortstop is hitting .379 over the last 15 days with three home runs. As I mentioned earlier, he has found success against Musgrove in his career, too. He has really been a key cog in the Mets’ postseason push. He has a hit in 15 of his last 16 games, 10 of which have been multi-hit efforts.
Cody Bellinger enters No. 2 in the rolling xwOBA leaderboard. He gets a matchup against rookie right-hander Max Meyer, who has really struggled. Meyer is in the bottom 1% of all pitchers in both barrel rate (14.4%) and hard-hit rate (50.4%).
Meyer is a good fade candidate if you’re looking to bet home runs. He has allowed a homer in six of eight starts this season and was most recently crushed by the Mets last week.
Bellinger is hitting just .286 with two home runs over the last 15 days, but he’s only struck out in three of those 42 at-bats. Bellinger remains a good buy-low candidate in the home runs and total bases market based on xwOBA vs. actual success.
The other name I’ll throw out there is Spencer Steer, who has seemingly pushed through a second-half slump. Over the last 15 days, Steer is hitting .304 with four home runs and gets a good matchup against left-hander Bailey Falter.
Falter is a fly-ball pitcher who has struggled with both strikeouts and barrels. He pitches to contact, hoping to induce soft balls in play, but has not been that successful. He is also a big negative regression candidate, with an xERA nearly a run higher than actual.
While Steer hasn’t been amazing against lefties this season (98 wRC+), he absolutely crushed southpaws in 2023 (143 wRC+).
Birthdays?! Blow 'Em Out!
Lane Thomas (CLE): Thomas has crushed left-handed pitching all season but gets a difficult matchup against righty Nathan Eovaldi. Maybe a birthday can get Thomas out of a slump, as he's hitting .074 over the last 15 days.
Mike Yastrzemski (SF): Yastrzemski heads to pitcher-haven Seattle against the hard-throwing Luis Castillo. Castillo has given up four home runs in his last four starts but does return home to T-Mobile Park, where it's been noted how dominant pitchers have been.
Billy McKinney (PIT): McKinney may not play today since left-hander Andrew Abbott is on the bump. McKinney did not play yesterday and has been a depth piece for Pittsburgh after being called up last week.
