Happy Monday everyone. While there are 12 games on this Monday slate with a couple of afternoon starts on the docket, it's a relatively light slate in terms of teams in play. We have two double headers — the Red Sox vs. Blue Jays and Royals vs. Guardians — with just 20 teams in action.
The two series to watch today are is the battle between two of baseball's best in the Astros and Phillies, as well as that aforementioned doubleheader as an AL Central feud unfolds between the playoff-hopeful Royals and division-leading Guardians.
I'm here to give you as much information as possible regarding potential avenues for batting props for the upcoming Monday slate.
This article will have several parts. The first is the historical matchups between the projected starting pitcher and opposing hitters. I'll also break down the game where we expect the biggest boost in home runs because of the weather and end with a recap of which hitters have been the hottest over the last couple of weeks. I may also sprinkle some narratives, like birthdays, for fun. Let's dive into my prop previews and hitter picks for 8-26.
Charlie DiSturco's MLB Props Preview & Hitter Picks for Monday 8-26
MLB Hitter Props & Picks: DiSturco's Favorite MLB Batter vs. Pitcher Matchups For Monday
Manny Machado vs. Kyle Gibson (RHP): While Machado is without a homer in 38 plate appearances, he has hit the right-hander to the tune of a .355 average. Nine of Machado’s 11 hits have been singles.
George Springer vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP): Another guy with 35+ plate appearances but little power to show for it (1 HR), Springer is hitting .333 with a 30% extra-base hit rate against Pivetta.
Ian Happ vs. Mitch Keller (RHP): Happ has 30 plate appearances against Keller in his career, hitting three home runs with a 55% extra-base hit rate. He has also walked five times.
Alejandro Kirk vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP): In 17 plate appearances against Pivetta, Kirk has a .529 on-base percentage and a .333 average. He, too, hasn’t hit for much power. Kirk has just one extra base hit.
Dansby Swanson vs. Mitch Keller (RHP): Swanson has a .308 average and a 75% extra-base hit rate against Keller in his career. He has seen the right-hander 12 times.
Daulton Varsho vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP): In 11 at-bats against Pivetta, Varsho has hit .364 with two home runs.
Jarren Duran vs. Jose Berrios (RHP): We’ve seen a lot of Pivetta, well how about Berrios? Duran has faced Berrios just 11 times in his career, but he has a 75% extra-base hit rate and two home runs to show for.
Bobby Witt Jr. vs. Logan Allen (LHP): Could Witt be pitched around here? Maybe. In 10 at-bats against Allen, the prolific shortstop has hit .600 with a double.
MLB Betting Preview Today: The Ballpark With the Largest Expected Home Run Boost Due To Weather
One of the more intriguing games comes out in an AL Central divisional matchup between bottom feeders of the division — Tigers vs. White Sox. The Tigers will send Ty Madden to the mound in his big league debut while the White Sox counter with Davis Martin.
It’s just a 23-game sample size based on similar conditions, but RotoGrinders’ WeatherEdge projects a +25.1% increase in home runs. We are looking at 90+ degree temperatures with wind blowing near double digits from right to left.
Madden has spent the majority of the season in Triple-A and posted a 7.97 ERA across 18 starts. He has dealt with some issues command wise (4.56 BB/9) and keeping the ball in the park (1.94 HR/9). He profiles as a fade candidate.
There aren’t many great options on the White Sox side of things — go figure.
Andrew Vaughn is one of the better options here. He’s inside the top 100 among all players that last 30 days in wRC+ against right-handed pitching — with more than 20 plate appearances — and has seen both his fly ball and hard-hit rate gradually increase.
Over the last 30 days, Vaughn is hitting .292 with four home runs and an .864 OPS at the plate.
Luis Robert is the other obvious choice and does have a 101 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season. Robert leads the active White Sox players in home runs (13) against righties and has seemingly turned a corner of late.
Over the last 15 days, Robert is hitting .381 with two home runs and a .943 OPS. He has been a huge disappointment this season but does get a friendly matchup at the plate.
Opposite Madden is White Sox right-hander Davis Martin. He has been a near-50% ground ball pitcher — obviously something to note in the home run market — but does have some command issues himself (12.4 BB%).
In his five starts this season, Martin has given up a home run in just two of those starts (40%). He has walked 2+ in all but one.
The best option on the Tigers side of things is left-handed bat Kerry Carpenter. He has absolutely crushed right-handed pitching this season in his limited appearances, with 12 home runs in 57 total games.
Carpenter leads the Tigers in wRC+ (177) in this split and is just two off the team leader in home runs despite playing 46 less games. Since returning from the injured list, Carpenter is hitting .270 with four home runs in 37 at-bats.
That team leader in home runs is Riley Greene (14), who is second on the team in wRC+ (148) against right-handed pitching. He is a great fastball hitter and has a +2 run value or greater on all but the curveball in Martin’s arsenal.
Both Carpenter (17.6%) and Greene (12.9%) have impressive barrel rates this season and are two of the more underrated hitters — probably due to playing in Detroit.
There could sneakily be plenty of offense between two sub-par teams on this Monday night. There's also a birthday bet that you could make … more on that later.
- Check out our MLB Betting Hub for more previews from today's slate.
MLB Betting Preview: Who's Hot
Giancarlo Stanton has soared up the rolling xwOBA leaderboard after a power surge this weekend. Stanton enters with home runs in three straight games after an unimpressive stretch in mid-August.
Stanton draws left-hander Mitchell Parker on Monday. While Parker features elite command, he does put a lot of balls in the air and grades out around league average in barrels (7.7%). He doesn’t generate many swings and misses — which could be a plus for Stanton who is seeing the ball well at the plate.
J.T. Realmuto joins the party as well after a two-homer game on Saturday night. He has a hit in 10 of his last 11 games and has finally turned a corner after a really rough summer. Over the last 15 days, Realmuto is hitting .368 with a 1.060 OPS.
Ronel Blanco takes the mound for Houston, another fly ball pitcher that struggles with barrels (9.4%). He has fallen back down to earth over the second half of the season and has allowed a home run in eight of his last 11 starts (73%).
Not many others on this list are in action today. Patrick Wisdom is No. 1 in this list, but he’s also a platoon hitter that will only face left-handed pitching. So I’d expect him on the bench against a righty.
- Check out more Daily MLB Odds
MLB Betting Preview: Birthday Boy
Spencer Torkelson: Just one hitter's birthday today! Torkelson made his return to the Tigers on Aug. 17 and has been much better after a disappointing first couple of months led to him being sent to the minors. Since returning to the lineup. the righty slugger is hitting .290 with an .888 OPS. He does have a home run, which came four days ago in Chicago. He is playing in that aforementioned weather-boosted environment in Chicago.
