Player props have become among the most popular bets in the industry, but while the amount of states with legalized gambling is growing, some may feel left out.
Enter PrizePicks.
With PrizePicks, you get the opportunity to essentially parlay game prop over/unders with cash payouts depending on how many you get correct on that day’s slate.
Therefore, let’s take a look at some of the options on Tuesday’s Major League Baseball slate and see where we can find some value to turn a profit.
A quick refresher if you aren’t familiar with PrizePicks: you can combine up to five different O/U player props to payout up to 10x your wager.
You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play gives you lesser odds, but you can win money even if you don’t nail every pick. Meanwhile, a Power Play is similar to a parlay — it’s all or nothing.
Here’s how I would approach today’s MLB slate.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
MLB PrizePicks Plays for Saturday, May 7
Brandon Lowe Under 0.5 Runs + RBIs
We have the third matchup of this four-game series between the AL East's second-place Tampa Bay Rays and the AL West's third-place Seattle Mariners.
I will be fading a few Rays hitters in this matchup as they are slated to go against left-handed pitcher Marco Gonzales.
Gonzales has been a completely different pitcher at home this season, going 1-0 with a 2.31 ERA and 0.943 WHIP through two starts. Through 30 career plate appearances against Gonzales, this current Rays lineup possesses a mere .222 BA, .333 SLG and .281 wOBA.
The first Rays hitter I'm fading in this game is Brandon Lowe, who has struggled mightily against left-handers this season. When facing left-handed pitchers, Lowe owns a .192 BA, .185 OBP, .308 SLG and .493 OPS.
Randy Arozarena Under 0.5 Runs + RBIs
The other Rays hitter I'm fading in this contest is Randy Arozarena. Having a tough start to his season, Arozarena holds a .233 BA, .269 OBP, .350 SLG and .619 OPS.
Arozarena has gone under this run total in five of his last nine games and could do so once again today. Though a small sample size, in three career plate appearances against Gonzales, Areozarena has zero hits, zero runs and zero RBIs.
Josiah Gray Over 15.5 Pitching Outs
We have the second outing of this three-game interleague series between the NL East's fifth-place Washington Nationals and the AL West's first-place Los Angeles Angels.
Right-hander Josiah Gray is projected to get the start on the mound for Washington and could be in store for a solid outing.
Gray has pitched well for Washington thus far, boasting a 3.12 ERA, 1.308 WHIP and .216 xBA through five starts this season. Obviously, good starts mean he will most likely stay in the game longer, as evidenced by the fact that he has gone over this total in each of his last three starts.
I believe Gray is poised to keep this trend going, as the Angels have not fared as well against right-handed pitchers. When facing right-handers at home this season, Los Angeles ranks just 15th in the league in BA and 15th in OBP.
Nolan Arenado Hitter Fantasy Score Under 5.5
The NL West's San Francisco Giants host the NL Central's St. Louis Cardinals for this third matchup of a four-game set. I will be fading a few Cardinals in this contest, as they're slated to go against right-handed pitcher Logan Webb.
Webb has had an impressive start to his season — 3-1 with a 3.26 ERA and 1.286 WHIP through five starts. His metrics suggest that regression should not be coming anytime soon, as he boasts a .290 xwOBA, .253 xBA, and .384 xSLG.
In his career against Webb, Arenado is just 1-7 with one single and a strikeout. Arenado has gone under this score in four of his last seven games.
Tommy Edman Under 1.5 Total Bases
The other Cardinal I'm fading in this game is Tommy Edman. While Edman has been great this year against left- and right-handed pitchers, his numbers take about a 20% dip when going against righties.
I think this number is over-adjusted due to Edman's success this season. Over his last 15 games, Edman has gone under this figure in 10 of them.
