A few weeks ago, we identified Luis Severino and Reese Olson as fade candidates, and tonight they will start against each other when the Tigers host the Yankees. These two starters are still struggling, and hitters DJ LeMahieu and Kerry Carpenter could take advantage of them.
The Astros just left Detroit after scoring 17 runs yesterday. However, they gave up 17 runs to Boston on Thursday as the Red Sox salvaged a split in a four-game series. Yordan Alvarez will look to help the Astros take the first game in a new series at Fenway Park tonight.
The Braves lost to the Giants on Sunday Night Baseball, but they did win the series in San Francisco. Tonight their bats should take advantage of the friendly conditions at Coors Field, and Bryce Elder may be the beneficiary.
MLB Player Props For Monday, August 28
DJ LeMahieu/Kerry Carpenter One-Hit Parlay -114 (FanDuel)
In August, DJ LeMahieu is hitting .328 with a .966 OPS. Focusing on the last week, he is hitting .381 with all four of his home runs this month. He has not faced Tigers starter Reese Olson yet, but right-handed batters are hitting .247 against him. Additionally, the young right-hander has allowed four or more runs in five of his last six starts.
Kerry Carpenter has been scorching hot this month as well. In August, he is hitting .369 with nine home runs, 19 runs batted in and a 1.174 OPS. Comerica Park tends to be more favorable for pitchers, but that has not stopped Carpenter from hitting .365 at home.
Carpenter also has not faced Luis Severino, who is coming off his best outing of the year when he allowed just one hit against Washington. However, that has been a rare occurrence for Severino this season as he still holds a 7.26 ERA. Additionally, left-handers are hitting .335 and have 10 home runs against him.
LeMahieu comes into play with a five-game hitting streak and has recorded a hit in 15 of 18 games this month. Carpenter's seven-game hitting streak ended yesterday, but he has a hit in 20 of his last 22 games. Expect him to get back in the hit column tonight, and we get a solid price parlaying him with LeMahieu.
Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + Runs Batted In -135 (DraftKings)
Yordan Alvarez played a key role in the Astros' outburst yesterday when he went 2-for-6 with a double, a run scored and three runs batted in. He has hit 14 of his 21 home runs on the road, and his OPS increases to 1.020 away from Minute Maid Park as well.
Alvarez's OPS is an even .928 against both right-handed and left-handed pitchers. However, he is hitting .313 against left-handers. The Astros faced Chris Sale last Wednesday and scored four runs against him. Alvarez did not play that game, but in his career against Sale, he is 4-for-4 with a home run and four runs batted in.
Since coming off the IL, Sale has not lasted more than five innings, and I would expect that to continue tonight. Alvarez may face a right-handed reliever at some point, and 15 of his home runs have come against right-handers this season.
Alvarez has a hit in nine of his last 11 games, including two hits in each of his last two games. Those two-hit performances would have this cleared this line even without accounting for runs or runs batted in. He has also cleared this line in six of his last 10 games and had six hits + runs + runs batted in yesterday.
Pick: Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + Runs Batted In -135
Bryce Elder To Record A Win +130 (DraftKings)
While I love Coors Field as a hitters' park, the books know that as well and do not offer much value on hitting props. That is certainly the case when a team like the Braves faces the Rockies in Colorado. Consequently, six Braves hitters have home run odds lower than +400, and six hitters are also -350 or shorter to record a hit.
Tonight's starter, Austin Gomber, has a 7.06 ERA and .314 opposing batting average and has allowed 15 home runs at home. The Braves scored nine runs in five and 1/3 innings off Gomber in two appearances (one start) against him last season. The Braves also scored 40 runs in the four-game series in June while sweeping the Rockies in Atlanta.
Collectively, the Braves offense should rake tonight, and they are -205 to win the first five innings. That leads me to look at starter Bryce Elder, who would be in line for the win, assuming the Braves are ahead after five. Elder is 10-4 with a 3.39 ERA this season, and his teammates have mentioned the confidence they have when he pitches. That is high praise for a team that also boasts Spencer Strider and just got Max Fried back in the rotation.
Elder has had a few rough outings since the All-Star break, but he has allowed one run on three hits in 12 and 1/3 innings in his last two starts, both wins. In that June series, Elder allowed four hits and one run over six innings in a 10-2 Braves victory. The Rockies offense does fare better at home, so don't expect him to be that dominant tonight. However, if Elder gets the run support that I expect and the Braves bullpen holds the lead, he will pick up his 11th win this season.
Pick: Bryce Elder To Record A Win +130
