Today we look to finish the week strong with Sunday's top MLB player props. Today's picks feature a trio of strikeout props, so let's meet the three starters we're targeting today.
MLB Player Props For Sunday, June 25th
Michael Lorenzen Under 5.5 Strikeouts -130
| Twins vs. Tigers | Minnesota -130 |
| First Pitch | 12:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | bet365 |
The Minnesota Twins may enter this matchup with the highest team Strikeout Rate in the majors, but today they are facing a starter who is not in a position to capitalize on that.
Michael Lorenzen, a former two-way standout with Cincinnati, has supplanted himself in the Tigers rotation, and while he's shown some flashes, his tenure there has not gotten off to a great start. He enters this start with a 4.00 ERA and 1.13 WHIP.
However, most of his struggles are due to his inability to miss bats. His Strikeout Rate has dropped two percent from last season and now sits in the 21st percentile among qualified pitchers.
That drop in Strikeout Rate has made him come in under this total of 5.5 strikeouts in eight of his 12 starts this year. However, this season expands a longer trend as he's failed to eclipse this total in 63.3% of his last 30 starts.
We have implied odds of -172, and with regression looming for Lorenzen, we should expect him to go under 5.5 strikeouts again this afternoon.
Pick: Michael Lorenzen Under 5.5 Ks |
George Kirby Over 3.5 Strikeouts -160
| Mariners vs. Orioles | Seattle -126 |
| First Pitch | 1:35 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | bet365 |
Yesterday we were on Bryce Miller to exceed his strikeout total against the Orioles, and he did his job. However, we are now presented with the same total, better odds, and a more prolific strikeout pitcher against the same Orioles lineup this afternoon.
The methodology is the same with Kirby as it was with Miller. Yes, the Orioles are a hot lineup, and they do not strike out often, but they are getting far too much respect with this total.
Kirby is having a great sophomore campaign for the Mariners, and he's proven to be a consistent source of strikeouts. He has surpassed this total in 11 of his 14 starts this season and has a 75.6% hit rate in his first 41 starts.
The implied odds of -310 make this juice worth the squeeze.
Pick: George Kirby Over 3.5 Ks |
Charlie Morton Over 6.5 Strikeouts -105
| Braves vs. Reds | Atlanta -220 |
| First Pitch | 1:40 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
Ol' Uncle Charlie has proven that even at 39, he can still get swings and misses from big-league hitters. His Strikeout Rate sits in the 68th percentile among qualified major league pitchers, and today he has an excellent matchup to add to his strikeout total.
Morton will be up against one of the hottest teams in baseball, the Cincinnati Reds. Cincinnati has taken the league by storm with its explosive young talent. However, one forgotten thing that comes with young talent is a lot of swing and miss.
The Reds have the 11th-highest Strikeout Rate in the majors this season and are prime candidates to struggle against Morton. It's only fitting that the curveball is Uncle Charlie's best pitch, and this year it's been as filthy as ever.
Morton's curveball has a 42.3% Whiff Rate, and he's throwing it nearly 46% of the time this season. If he can locate his fastball and set up his curve, we could see him sail over his total this afternoon.
Pick: Charlie Morton Over 6.5 Ks |
