Around Major League Baseball, there are several areas dealing with extreme heat. The ball travels farther in humid conditions, so as a prop bettor, hopefully that means balls will be flying out of the yard.
With a full MLB slate, there were several hitters in favorable conditions that I had my eye on. However, I will be focusing on Nick Castellanos of the Phillies, Austin Riley of the Braves and Freddie Freeman for the Dodgers. They may just provide some player prop fireworks as we end the work week.
MLB Player Props For Friday, July 28
Nick Castellanos Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105)
| Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates | Philadelphia -160 |
| First Pitch | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Nick Castellanos is probably looking forward to the end of July. This month he is hitting just .176 with four home runs and 11 runs batted in. However, he is still at .280 with 14 home runs and 60 runs batted in for the season.
He has hit this player prop just once in his last 10 games, but I am going to him because of his favorable matchup against Mitch Keller.
Castellanos is 7-for-24 (.292) with two doubles and two home runs in his career against Keller. A double or home run today would give him two total bases, but he could also hit this over with two singles. He also may be catching Keller at the right time.
After an All-Star first half, Keller has allowed 14 earned runs and five home runs in 11 innings in his last two starts. He has also allowed five runs in three of four starts this month. The Phillies should get a few runs off Keller, and he may be just what Castellanos needs to snap out of his slump as well.
Pick: Nick Castellanos Over 1.5 Total Bases |
Austin Riley Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100)
| Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves | Atlanta -190 |
| First Pitch | 7:20 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
Unlike Castellanos, Austin Riley has been one of the hottest hitters in the National League — just last week, he hit a home run in five consecutive games.
Two of those home runs came against the Brewers, with one against tonight's starter, Adrian Houser. Riley is 5-for-13 (.385) with that home run and six runs batted in against Houser.
That three-run shot was the only mistake Houser made as he allowed six hits and three earned runs while striking out 10 Braves. However, his ERA nearly doubles on the road at 4.69 compared to 2.38 at home. He is also allowing right-handed batters to hit .307 against him.
Speaking of home/road splits, Riley is a better hitter at home, hitting .302 with 12 doubles, 11 home runs, 33 RBIs and an .898 OPS.
An extra-base hit would cash this line for us, and Riley also has four multi-hit games in his last 10 games. If the Braves offense gets rolling again at home, I expect Riley to be in the middle of it.
Pick: Austin Riley Over 1.5 Total Bases |
Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100)
| Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles -240 |
| First Pitch | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Freddie Freeman has recorded a hit in eight of his past nine games and is now second in the Major Leagues with a .328 batting average. He leads the Major Leagues with 35 doubles, and that is usually how he gets two total bases. However, Freeman has also found success lately connecting with the long ball.
Freeman has hit seven of his 21 home runs this season in the month of July, including four in his last six games. One of those home runs came last Friday when we backed him against Andrew Heaney. Tonight, he will face another left-hander in Brandon Williamson.
Freeman is 1-for-3 against Williamson, who has a 4.60 ERA and 4.95 road ERA. He is also allowing left-handed batters to hit .250 compared to .229 against right-handers.
Freeman is hitting .314 against left-handed pitchers this season, and he also has 11 home runs in just 121 at-bats against them. He has a .347 isolated power against left-handers as well.
Freeman has five multi-hits in his last nine games and has hit this line in six of his last nine games. Whether he gets two hits or drives a ball into the gap of Dodger Stadium, I like his chances of getting two bases tonight.
Pick: Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Total Bases |
