Every day, I try to add an edge to my MLB betting card by selecting a few player props using our Action Labs projections.
Our Action Labs Player Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting picks in the discussion below.
Here are my picks for the MLB slate on Monday, June 19, including picks for Jose Berrios and Austin Gomber.
MLB Player Props For Monday, June 19
Jose Berrios Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-122)
| Blue Jays @ Marlins | |
| First Pitch | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
I last covered our daily MLB player props column last Wednesday, and we cashed Jose Berrios over 4.5 strikeouts against Baltimore.
However, it was a sweat. It took Berrios until the fifth inning to record his first strikeout, but he carried a no-hitter into the seventh inning and ended up striking out five of his final 15 batters faced for an unlikely gambling win.
In that start, Berrios showed exactly why we should be so bullish on him.
Berrios is forcing more ground balls than ever with his sinker (59% rate), throwing the pitch primarily in early counts.
Then, Berrios throws a slurve (14.1% swinging-strike rate) and changeup (18.6% swinging-strike rate) to put batters away late in counts (26.7% put-away on the slurve, 26% on the changeup).
When his breaking ball is working, look out:
This pitch by Jose Berrios is one of the nastiest pitches that I've seen this season pic.twitter.com/7syPaZSmVY
— Mike (@MikeDonaghy7) June 15, 2023
Berrios can fill up the zone with his fastball offerings and force whiffs with his secondaries, and he ranks 16th among qualified pitchers in CSW rate (31.2%) between his pitch mix.
Berrios rode this strategy to a dominant start in Baltimore, and his five strikeouts marked the 10th time he's eclipsed 4.5 strikeouts in 14 starts. Even more impressive, Berrios has cashed over 4.5 strikeouts in seven of his nine road starts, even though his career strikeout numbers drop away from home.
I'll take Berrios to strike out another five against the Fish. The Marlins are nothing special against right-handed pitching and have allowed six of the past eight opposing righties to cash their strikeout totals.
Projections are bullish on Berrios for Monday's start, with the Action Labs Player Props Tool, RotoWire's projections and Jon Anderson's projections all putting him between 4.8 and 5.4 strikeouts.
Let's cash another Berrios prop.
Action Labs Grade: 8/10
Pick: Berrios Over 4.5 Ks (-122) |
Austin Gomber Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125)
| Rockies @ Reds | |
| First Pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | BetMGM |
Austin Gomber is one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball.
Gomber's plus-curveball made him an interesting prospect in St. Louis. Unfortunately, the pitch has quickly deteriorated, leaving him with a fastball combination that grades out as one of the worst in the sport. He enters with the eighth-worst four-seam and second-worst sinker by Stuff+.
Gomber pairs a 7.29 ERA with an xERA that isn't much better and ranks near the bottom of MLB in almost every important statistical measurement.
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Image via Pitcher List.
Gomber's peripherals add up to -0.3 fWAR. In other words, he's worse than replacement level.
So, it's unsurprising that Gomber has stayed under 4.5 strikeouts in 11 of his 14 starts this season. That includes an early-May start against these Cincinnati Reds, where Gomber managed one strikeout across 4.1 innings of five-run baseball.
The Reds can be strikeout-prone, but we also know they've improved significantly as the season has progressed. Over the past month and against southpaws, the Reds pair a 123 wRC+ with the 13th-lowest strikeout rate (21.8%).
I don't see how Gomber is relatively competitive in this start, and I don't see him cashing over 4.5 strikeouts. Neither do the projection models:
- Action Labs Player Props Tool: 3.9 Ks
- BallParkPal Pitching Sims: 4.0 Ks
- RotoWire Prop Projections: 3.4 Ks
- Jon Anderson Daily MLB Projections: 3.2 Ks
I'll happily hammer this line.
Action Labs Grade: 8/10
Pick: Gomber Under 4.5 Ks (-125) |
