Every day, I try to add an edge to my MLB betting card by selecting a few player props using our Action Labs projections.
Our Action Labs Player Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting picks in my discussions below.
Here are my picks for the MLB slate on Monday, May 1, which include Jose Berrios and Matt Chapman.
MLB Player Props For Monday, May 1
Jose Berrios Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+115)
| Blue Jays @ Red Sox | |
| First Pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | BetMGM |
Berrios isn't pitching out of his mind, but he's figured something out with his arsenal.
Berrios' fastball is getting more rising action, forcing more swings and misses (9% swinging strike rate this year, 8.2% last year).
He's also throwing his curveball further out of the zone, resulting in more chases (17.5% swinging strike rate this year, 12.9% last year).
Berrios is throwing his changeup slower (I'm not sure why) and more in the zone (also, not sure why), and that's resulting in a monster increase in swinging strikes (24.6% this year, 12.2% last year).
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So, Berrios is kicking around with a mid-4.00s ERA, but he also has the 15th-best K-BB% rate in baseball (21.7%). He also has the second-largest difference between his ERA (4.71) and FIP (2.37), only behind Nathan Eovaldi.
Berrios is still giving up hard contact and can't seem to pitch with runners on base (49% strand rate). But he's striking out more batters than ever, and that's worth something.
Either way, Berrios' recent development is gold for the sake of this article. He's eclipsed over 4.5 strikeouts in four of five starts this season, most recently racking up nine against the White Sox.
The Red Sox will be a different test, given they currently boast the lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers in baseball (18.7%).
But Berrios struck out 16 Red Sox over 19 innings in three starts against Boston last season, recording a CSW rate close to 30%. So, I have a feeling the new-look Berrios will punch out plenty of batters on Monday.
Our Action Labs Player Props Tool projects Berrios for 4.7 strikeouts against the Red Sox, while BallParkPal's pitcher simulations project him for 5.4.
Either way, we're getting solid value on over 4.5 at plus-money. And I don't think the market has caught up to Berrios' adjustments, so don't be surprised if he strikes out seven or something.
Pick: Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+115) | Action Labs Grade: 7/10
Matt Chapman Over 1.5 Total Bases (-110)
| Blue Jays @ Red Sox | |
| First Pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | BetMGM |
It's a tough player prop slate on Monday, so I'm doubling down on Toronto props and betting on a second Blue Jays player.
As it stands, Chapman is the best baseball player on earth. He's the first player to eclipse the 2.0 fWAR mark this season, and he has the highest wRC+ (219) among qualified hitters.
I could break down the numbers even further, but I think this image portrays his dominance better than I could:
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So, instead of waxing poetic about Chapman, let's just focus on today's matchup.
In six lifetime appearances against Red Sox starting pitcher Corey Kluber, Chapman is 5-for-5 with four extra-base hits and a walk. He boasts a 100.5 mph avg. EV and a 14.6-degree avg. launch angle on those five batted balls against Kluber, which is basically perfection.
Here's the radial image of Chapman's career against Kluber:
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Again, perfection.
And these two haven't faced off since 2018.
In the meantime, Chapman has turned into a force of nature while Kluber has transformed from a Cy Young contender to a complete meatballer (6.75 ERA, 5.22 xERA, 10.5% barrel rate).
And did I mention Chapman loves playing at Fenway? He has a career .305/.374/.463 slash line when playing in Boston, compiling 38 total bases in 21 games.
Chapman eclipsed his bases prop in five of his final seven games at Fenway just last season, with zero plate appearances against Kluber.
It's a perfect storm for Chapman today. I'm expecting a few Champan rockets off the Green Monster on this Monday evening.
