Every day, I try to add an edge to my MLB betting card by selecting a few player props using our Action Labs projections.
Our Action Labs Player Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting picks in the discussion below.
Here are my picks for the MLB slate on Wednesday, June 28, including picks for Logan Gilbert, Aaron Nola and Logan Allen.
MLB Player Props For Wednesday, June 28
Logan Gilbert Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125)
| Mariners vs. Nationals | |
| First Pitch | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Gilbert has stayed under 5.5 strikeouts in three consecutive starts.
Why is that?
Well, pitch count has been a problem, given that he managed only 58 pitches against the Halos, 80 against the White Sox and 94 against the Orioles. I don't think there's an injury concern, but he's struggling to stay out on the mound.
The big thing I see is a decrease in fastball use and effectiveness. He's managed only two whiffs on the pitch over his past three starts after averaging over four per game during his first 12 starts.
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So, Gilbert has leaned heavier into his splitter and slider usage.
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I'm unsure if this is emblematic of a larger trend, and the Stuff+ metrics seem to think otherwise.
That said, I'm willing to buy into this apparent decrease in fastball effectiveness for one start, primarily because of two other reasons.
Firstly, the Nationals are tough. They strike out at the lowest rate in baseball (18.7%) and have only improved as the season has progressed (18.1% over the past 30 days).
And the Nationals should stay tough against Gilbert. The Nationals have the lowest whiff rate of any team in baseball against sliders and splitters combined (27.7%).
Secondly, projections are aligned on fading Gilbert:
- Action Labs Player Props Tool: 4.7 Ks
- BallParkPal Game Sims: 4.6 Ks
- Jon Anderson Daily Pitcher Projections: 5 Ks
I'll fade the Gilbert and his mercurial fastball against the ever-patient Nationals on Wednesday.
Action Labs Grade: 8/10
Pick: Gilbert Under 5.5 Ks |
Aaron Nola Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+118)
| Phillies @ Cubs | |
| First Pitch | 8:05 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
Projections aren't as aligned on Nola, but I'm buying his stock until I can't anymore.
After a brutal start to 2023, Nola's seen a sizeable increase in velocity and Stuff+ metrics. The numbers align closer to last year's, when he earned Cy Young votes.
Gonna keep backing Nola until something tells me otherwise pic.twitter.com/fW8xGzK4ld
— Tanner McGrath (@tannerstruth) June 28, 2023
Nola was also due for some positive regression and still is (4.38 ERA, 3.51 xERA), but he's now pairing that with improved performance.
The result was his best start this year last week against Atlanta, holding the red-hot Braves scoreless over six two-hit innings with five strikeouts.
If this trend continues, I expect a monster outing for Nola against the Cubs on Wednesday.
Chicago's offense has been horrendous following a hot start, posting the sixth-highest strikeout rate (25%) and sixth-lowest wRC+ (84) over the past 30 days.
Nola took on this Cubbies lineup in late May and ripped it to shreds. He posted 10 strikeouts on 15 whiffs across 98 pitches and seven innings, picking up a 40% CSW rate overall.
Given Nola's upward trajectory, I see no reason why he can't do the same thing again.
Nola's cashed over 6.5 strikeouts in five of his past seven starts. Our Action Labs Player Props Tool has him at 6.6 Ks in this start, while Jon Anderson's daily projections have him at 6.5 Ks.
I think this wager is worth a dart throw at moderate plus-money odds. Nola is improving too quickly, and I'm unsure if the books have caught on yet.
Action Labs Grade: 6/10
Pick: Nola Over 6.5 Ks |
Logan Allen Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-105)
| Guardians @ Royals | |
| First Pitch | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
It's hard not to love how Allen has begun his career. After posting three near-immaculate Triple-A outings at the beginning of this year (2 ER across 14.1 IP), he's got a 3.68 ERA across 11 Major League starts.
Allen is due for some regression (4.42 xERA), but projections mark him as a low-4.00s ERA pitcher. I'll take that from a middle-rotation rookie.
He hasn't consistently beaten his prop numbers, but I'm targeting Allen today because of the matchup.
The Vinnie Pasquantino-less Royals lineup is lifeless. Over the past two weeks, they pair the seventh-highest strikeout rate (25.3%) with the ninth-lowest wRC+ (89).
They've allowed nine of the past 11 opposing starting pitchers to cash their strikeout prop.
The key for Allen's strikeout prop is to get whiffs on his sweeper. Well, the Royals have the sixth-highest chase rate of any MLB team against the pitch this season (35.7%) on the fourth-highest swing rate (50%). There's reason to believe Allen can get his slider past this lineup.
The projections think so, too.
- Action Labs Player Props Tool: 5.5 Ks
- BallParkPal Game Sims: 5.4 Ks
- Jon Anderson Daily Pitcher Projections: 5.2 Ks
- RotoWire Player Prop Projections: 4.8 Ks
Allen is a good bet considering the matchup, and we're getting relatively low juice to back him.
Action Labs Grade: 9/10
Pick: Allen Over 4.5 Ks |
