I try to add an edge to my MLB betting card each day by selecting a few player props using our Action Labs projections.
Our Action Labs Player Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting picks in the discussion below.
Here are my picks for the MLB slate on Wednesday, July 26, including picks for Marcus Stroman and Lance Lynn.
MLB Player Prop Bets for Wednesday, July 26
Marcus Stroman over 4.5 strikeouts (-118)
| Cubs vs. White Sox | |
| First Pitch | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
Marcus Stroman is a tough cookie to crack. He’s overperforming (3.09 ERA, 3.86 xERA), but sinker-heavy ground-ball pitchers consistently overperform, and Stroman is the best of that bunch.
Stroman’s 57.8% ground-ball rate is second among qualified pitchers (Logan Webb). Most of those ground balls go to either Dansby Swanson (100th percentile OAA) or Nico Hoerner (95th percentile OAA).
That approach is sustainable.
More pertinent to this analysis, Stroman also overperforms his peripherals because he doesn’t post gaudy strikeout numbers. His 21.1% strikeout rate and 27.5% CSW rate are lackluster.
Stroman’s whiff rates have nosedived. He’s posted a 9% swinging-strike rate over his past four starts, generating 34 total whiffs on almost 400 pitches thrown.
However, Stroman has still managed to cash over 4.5 strikeouts in 14 of his 21 starts this year. His ground-ball style is efficient, so he throws a lot of innings (5 ⅔ per start on average) and produces strikeout opportunities.
I think he’s going to pitch deep into this start. The White Sox are a dream matchup for Stroman.
The White Sox cannot hit the ball in the air. They have the highest ground-ball rate (47.1%) and second-lowest average launch angle (10.7 degrees) in MLB. They have a whopping 61.6% ground-ball rate against sinkers, nearly 3% higher than any other team.
Stroman should dominate, thus producing ample strikeout opportunities.
I’m hoping the White Sox take care of the rest. The White Sox have the fifth-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching over the past month, a whopping 25.8%. They chase at the highest rate in baseball (33.6%).
Watch out for Tim Anderson here. Stroman has struck him out seven times in 16 lifetime PAs.
The daily projection models are unanimous that Stroman can cash this number:
- The Action Labs Player Props Tool: 5.0 Ks
- BallParkPal Pitcher Simulations: 5.8 Ks
- Jon Anderson Daily Pitcher Projections: 5.2 Ks
There’s value in the number, and the matchup makes sense.
Action Labs Grade: 8/10
Pick: Marcus Stroman Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-118) |
Lance Lynn under 7.5 strikeouts (-142)
| White Sox vs. Cubs | |
| First Pitch | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
Lance Lynn has turned into a strikeout machine. He has the second-highest swinging-strike rate (20.1%) and second-lowest zone contact rate (79.1%) among starting pitchers over the past six weeks, trailing only Spencer Strider in both categories.
As you likely know, Lynn works with a trio of fastballs (four-seam, sinker, cutter) and aims to miss bats in the zone. When those pitches are missing bats, he can look dominant.
Suffice it to say, Lynn’s fastballs are missing bats. His four-seam has a 41% whiff rate across three July starts.
He’s also re-introduced a curveball with a whopping 54% whiff rate this month, although in a small sample size (32 thrown).
That said, 7.5 strikeouts is a wildly high number for Lynn, especially in this start.
Lynn's cashed over 7.5 strikeouts in only five of his 20 starts this year. He’s managed eight or more strikeouts only twice since this hot streak started. Some of his numbers are inflated from a 16-strikeout performance against the super-strikeout-happy Mariners.
And although Lynn’s strikeout numbers are back up, it doesn’t mean he’s been good. He has a 6.62 ERA since June started. He’s a blow-up candidate every time he takes the mound.
Meanwhile, the Cubs take more pitches per plate appearance than any team in baseball (4.07) and have been scorching hot against right-handed pitching (160 wRC+ over the past two weeks). They work the count, grind opposing pitchers down and have been obliterating baseballs.
Lynn has a modest 23% strikeout rate and 25.8% whiff rate in 61 lifetime PAs against him by current Cubs hitters. Ian Happ and Cody Bellinger are the only two Cubs with multiple strikeouts facing Lynn.
The Action Labs Player Props Tool, Jon Anderson’s Daily Pitcher Projections and RotoWire’s Player Prop Projections all have Lynn striking out between 6.4 and 6.8 in this matchup.
7.5 is too high. Take the under.
Action Labs Grade: 7/10
Pick: Lance Lynn Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-142) |
