Every day, I try to add an edge to my MLB betting card by selecting a few player props using our Action Labs projections.
Our Action Labs Player Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting picks in the discussion below.
Here are my picks for the MLB slate on Monday, June 5, including picks for Rays vs. Red Sox and Cubs vs. Padres.
MLB Player Props For Monday, June 5
Brayan Bello Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-126)
| Red Sox vs. Rays | |
| First Pitch | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
It's daunting to fade Tampa's offense, but I have to back Brayan Bello in this spot.
The more he settles into the league, the more Bello has impressed me. He has a 2.53 ERA and a 60% ground-ball rate since May 1, posting 33 strikeouts across 32 innings during the stretch.
He's starting to harness command and control of that deadly arsenal.
Brayan Bello absolutely disgusting pic.twitter.com/eKXWRzP1nx
— Red Sox Stats (@redsoxstats) May 18, 2023
Bello's changeup is really rounding into form, with a 43.3% whiff rate and a .232 xwOBA allowed. It's nice when you have a clear put-away pitch, especially one that's effective against lefties (the Rays will have four in their lineup today if you include switch-hitting Wander Franco).
His batted-ball profile isn't great (5.10 xERA), but his strikeout numbers look good (9.38 K/9, 3.63 xFIP).
As a result, Bello has struck out five or more batters in six of his eight appearances this season. He also struck out five in an appearance against the Rays last season, accomplishing the task on only 82 pitches.
The Action Labs Player Props Tool projects Bello for 5.4 strikeouts on Monday, while BallParkPal projects him for 5.0 Ks.
Either way, I think there's value on Bello in the strikeout market, even considering the tough matchup. And I'm always willing to take a shot with him and his disgusting stuff.
Action Labs Grade: 7/10
Pick: Brayan Bello Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-126) |
Yan Gomes Over 1.5 Total Bases (+165)
| Cubs @ Padres | |
| First Pitch | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
Yan Gomes: League-average hitter.
Yes, Gomes indeed has a perfectly league-average wRC+. But that number doesn't tell the full story.
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Gomes is obliterating left-handed pitching. He's slashing .350/.372/.750 against southpaws, good for a 1.122 OPS and 196 wRC+. Those lines include a .391 ISO, as five of Gomes' seven home runs have come against lefties.
Gomes' overall numbers are tough to parse through, but he's on pace for a career-high barrel rate (11.2%). I can only imagine most of those are coming against the left side.
Either way, it's a good day to target Gomes against southpaw Blake Snell.
Snell isn't pitching well, with a 5.54 ERA and an 11.2% barrel rate allowed, and he's struggled against Gomes in the past. Gomes is 5-for-13 lifetime against Snell with three extra-base hits.
In fact, Gomes went 2-for-2 off of Snell in a game earlier this season.
Gomes has also crushed the Padres in general. He's recorded 22 bags over his past 10 meetings with San Diego dating back to the start of last season, including a five-bag night this past Sunday.
Gomes is worth buying in this matchup. You can pay juice to get over 0.5 bases across the market, but I'm going to scale up and take the hefty plus-money number available at FanDuel.
Pick: Yan Gomes Over 1.5 Total Bases (+165) |
