Every day, I try to add an edge to my MLB betting card by selecting a few player props using our Action Labs projections.
Our Action Labs Player Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting picks in the discussion below.
Here are my picks for the MLB slate on Memorial Day Monday, May 29, including picks for Twins vs. Astros and Diamondbacks vs. Rockies.
MLB Player Props For Monday, May 29
Sonny Gray Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+116)
| Twins vs. Astros | Houston -122 |
| First Pitch | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
Sonny Gray is putting together a career season, as most on the Twins' pitching staff are.
Gray has pitched to a 1.82 ERA through 54 1/3 innings so far. He's due for regression (3.19 xERA), but his strikeout numbers are all we care about for the sake of this analysis.
And those numbers are pretty strong! Gray is on pace for the highest Strikeout Rate since 2020 (29.2%) and the highest Swinging-Strike Rate since 2017 (11.7%).
Gray has scaled back the use of his four-seam fastball and sinker while leaning more into his curveball, which has a whopping 36.1% Whiff Rate this year.
Also, Gray's Sweeper has been immaculate. The pitch has a 40% Whiff Rate, a .164 xBA against and a 128 Stuff+ rating.
Sonny Gray’s breaking balls (slider and curveball) have been awesome today pic.twitter.com/6ddC2rgVpk
— Brent Maguire (@bmags94) April 7, 2023
It's worth mentioning Gray throws the sweeper primarily to right-handed hitters, which is important today, given the Astros stack seven righties in their lineup on most days.
Speaking of the Astros, they've been a league-average lineup this season. Houston checks in with a 92 wRC+ and 22.8% Strikeout Rate against right-handed pitching this season, both average-to-below-average marks.
Gray took on this Houston lineup in early April and shoved. He struck out 13 over seven one-run innings in that start while tallying a 36% CSW rate.
Gray has cashed over 5.5 strikeouts in seven of his past nine outings. Our Action Labs Projections tag him for 6.2 Ks today, while BallParkPal has him at 6.3.
Either way, there's value on over 5.5 Ks for Gray, especially at plus-money.
Action Labs Grade: 8/10
Pick: Sonny Gray Over 5.5 Ks |
Ryne Nelson Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135)
| Diamondbacks vs. Rockies | Arizona -198 |
| First Pitch | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | BetMGM |
I like Ryne Nelson and believe he has a future in this league with his plus-fastball and plus-slider.
That said, Nelson is struggling to adjust to the Major-League level. He has a 5.02 ERA and 4.45 xERA behind a lackluster 16.4% Strikeout Rate. He's now made 13 MLB starts with a Swinging-Strike Rate under 8.5%.
As a result, Nelson has stayed under 4.5 strikeouts in nine of 10 starts this season. He has only racked up more than four strikeouts against one team: the pitiful Oakland A's.
Meanwhile, the Rockies can be tough. They strike out at below-average rates against right-handed pitching and boast a Strikeout Rate under 20% against the side in the month of May.
Our Action Labs Projections have Nelson at 4.2 strikeouts today, providing some small value on the under 4.5 (-135) number available at BetMGM. But considering the trends and matchup, I love this under.
Action Labs Grade: 6/10
Pick: Ryne Nelson Under 4.5 Ks |
