I try to add an edge to my MLB betting card each day by selecting a few player props using our Action Labs projections.
Our Action Labs Player Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting picks in the discussion below.
Here are my MLB player prop picks for the slate on Wednesday, August 9, which includes bets for Jordan Montgomery and Nick Pivetta.
MLB Player Props For Wednesday, August 9
Jordan Montgomery Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-166)
| Rangers @ Athletics | |
| First Pitch | 3:37 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
Montgomery has cashed over 4.5 Ks in 15 of 22 starts this year. He's also hit the mark in nine of his past 11 starts, with both misses coming against the super-red-hot Cubs.
Monty has been consistent.
It's funny because you don't expect a sinker-balling lefty to record gaudy strikeout numbers. It's also funny because Montgomery is throwing that sinker more than ever.
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However, Montgomery does two things well.
First, he has two secondaries that he locates well enough to generate Whiffs. His changeup checks in with a 19.5% swinging-strike rate, while his curveball is at 12.9%.
Second, Monty uses his sinker-ball to force ground balls (55.9% rate on the pitch), allowing him to throw a lot of innings. Think Sandy Alcantara.
Montgomery has pitched at least six innings in 14 of his 22 starts this year, including four straight. He strikes out about eight batters per nine, so he's theoretically striking out 5.33 batters per six-inning outing.
Yeah, those numbers check out. He's pitched six innings and struck out between five and six batters in almost half of his starts this year.
There's no reason to fear Oakland's offense against the southpaw. The A's have paired an above-average strikeout rate with a below-average wRC+ against left-handed pitching all season.
Montgomery hosted the A's once last year (when he was with the Yankees), striking out six batters over 6 2/3 innings.
Yeah, those numbers check out again.
The Action Labs Player Props Tool projects Montgomery for 5.7 Ks on Wednesday. BallParkPal, Jon Anderson and RotoWire all project him for over 5.2 Ks.
Montgomery is a safe bet.
Pick: Over 4.5 Ks (-166) | Action Labs Grade: 8/10
Nick Pivetta Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115)
| Red Sox vs. Royals | |
| First Pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | PointsBet |
The Action Labs Player Props Tool projects Pivetta for 4.0 strikeouts on Wednesday, making this our biggest edge on today's player prop slate.
Other projections are a tad murkier. Mostly because of this:
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Since Boston moved Pivetta to the bullpen, he's done nothing but annihilate batters. He struck out 13 A's in a relief appearance against Oakland last month, the most strikeouts in a single relief appearance in Red Sox history.
That said, I'm rolling with our projection system for two reasons.
First, I'm selling high on Pivetta. Are we sure this recent run of strikeout success is sustainable? That's especially true now that they're putting him back in the rotation, where he's historically struggled.
Second, I'm buying low on Kansas City. Over the past 30 days, the Royals are striking out at the second-lowest rate in MLB, a measly 19.1% of the time. They've held 13 of the past 19 opposing starting pitchers under their strikeout prop.
On the season, the Royals boast a 72.8% contact rate and a 27.2% whiff rate. Over the past month, those numbers are 75.3% and 24.6%, respectively.
Shorten the sample size to the past two weeks, and the Royals check in with an 18.2% strikeout rate and a 130 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. It's hard to say why, but the 37-78 Royals are mashing the baseball.
I think Pivetta's number is inflated, and the Royals are being disrespected. Buy low, sell high, folks.
