In case you didn't know, it's Mother's Day, and if you need to pad your wallet to get Mom the gift she deserves, well, I've got you covered. Yesterday we were one strikeout away from a sweep, but today's prop market presents even more value. Let's dive into the top MLB player props of the slate.
MLB Player Props For Sunday, May 14th
Mitch Keller Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+120)
| Pirates vs. Orioles | Orioles -130 |
| First Pitch | 1:35 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | bet365 |
Mitch Keller was once a highly touted prospect in the Pirates organization, and four years after his major league debut, his breakout season is upon us. Keller has been fantastic through his first eight starts of the season as he enters with a 2.72 ERA.
Generating more swings and misses has helped him make the jump in the early part of the 2023 season. Keller's Strikeout Rate is up over 7% from last season, and he's already shown he can crack double digits in the strikeout column.
This afternoon he'll be up against an Orioles lineup that has done an excellent job of putting the ball in play this season, but even in a tougher matchup, this number is too low for Keller.
He has gone over this total in six of his eight starts this season. However, he had the strikeouts flowing toward the end of last season and has a large sample size in his favor, as he's gone over this total in 13 of his previous 25 starts.
That hit rate gives us implied odds of -108 that he'll go over again today despite the tough matchup.
Pick: Keller Over 5.5 Strikeouts |
Yusei Kikuchi Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115)
| Braves vs. Blue Jays | Braves -110 |
| First Pitch | 1:37 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | bet365 |
Yusei Kikuchi has been an enigma since joining the Toronto Blue Jays as his stuff flashes potential, but his tenure has been flooded with hard contact and crooked box scores. Unfortunately, or should I say fortunately for us, Kikuchi will take the hill against the Atlanta Braves, who have proven to be one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball.
Kikuchi enters this outing ranked in the bottom 15 percent of baseball in Average Exit Velocity and Hard-Hit Rate Allowed. The Braves hitters' eyes may light up against him as Atlanta has been the best team at generating hard contact. The Braves rank first in Average Exit Velocity and Barrel Rate while being just .07 off the lead for the top spot in Hard-Hit Rate.
This is a spot where Kikuchi may not even last long enough to challenge this total, but in the event he does make it two times through the order, we have history on our side. The Toronto lefty has gone under this total in 29 of his last 39 starts, which generates implied odds of -290 that he'll be under 5.5 Ks again this afternoon.
Pick: Kikuchi Under 5.5 Strikeouts |
Logan Webb Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-165)
| Giants vs. Diamondbacks | Giants -140 |
| First Pitch | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | bet365 |
Logan Webb has become a bulldog for the San Francisco Giants, as every time he's taken the ball this season, he's gone deep and left his mark. This afternoon's matchup should be no different as he faces the Arizona Diamondbacks.
The Diamondbacks have been a pesky team for opposing pitchers as they have the second-lowest Team Strikeout Rate in the majors, but Webb is not trying to strikeout hitters, which makes this high-contact lineup a favorable matchup.
Webb has been a ground ball generating machine this season, as his Ground Ball Rate entering this start is 60.4 percent. That is nearly 16 percent higher than the major league average.
Webb's ability to generate ground balls at a high rate has and will continue to allow him to work deep into games. Webb has finished the sixth inning in seven of his eight starts this season, adding to a longer trend.
Over his last 40 starts, Webb has gone over this total 67.5 percent of the time, which gives us implied odds of -205. That is more than enough line value to back him again today.
Pick: Over 17.5 Outs Recorded
