Last night, the Cubs took game one of their three-game series in Detroit, 7-6, holding off a fervent comeback by the Tigers. Drew Smyly will get the ball for the Cubs back in Detroit where he began his career. However, tonight he will have to deal with a potent trio of young Tigers.
This season, the Braves have had the Mets' number, but the Mets were able to get a little payback with a 10-4 victory over their rival last night. Tonight, Tylor Megill will start for the Mets, and he did not fare well against Atlanta earlier this month in New York. The Braves may be in better position to get to him at home.
Last week, Julio Rodriguez looked like a future AL MVP in carrying the Mariners to a 6-1 record. Last night, he got the night off but Cal Raleigh carried the Mariners with six RBIs for Seattle's seventh straight win. However, Rodriguez should be back in the Mariners lineup at the top of the order. I will be backing him against Mike Clevinger.
MLB Player Props For Tuesday, August 22
Last night, Kerry Carpenter and Spencer Torkelson combined to go 7-for-10 and each hit a solo home run. It was Carpenter's third consecutive game with a home run and the second for Torkelson. They are tied for the major league lead with eight home runs each in August.
While it is important to identify hot hitters in prop betting, baseball is also a game of ebbs and flows and Carpenter and Torkelson are not going to homer every game.
Of the two, I prefer Torkelson tonight as Drew Smyly has allowed 18 of his 23 home runs to right-handers. However, left-handed hitters are hitting .327 with a .957 OPS against him, which is why I am targeting Riley Greene tonight.
Last night, Greene went 0-for-4, but I am counting on him to bounce back here. He has recorded a hit in 14 of 19 games this month. Over his past 30 games, he is hitting .314 with 16 runs scored, five home runs and 13 runs batted in. He is averaging 2.2 hits + runs+ runs batted in over that span.
Greene is hitting .289 against left-handed pitching. With three at-bats likely against Smyly, there is a good chance that he gets at least one hit. Manager AJ Hinch has moved Greene, Torkelson and Carpenter around in the lineup, but lately some combination of them have been batting in the 2-4 spots.
If Greene bats second, like last night, Torkelson and Carpenter can drive him in with their hot bats. Greene can also drive in one of them if he is batting third, and that will help him get over this line.
Pick: Riley Greene Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-120 at DraftKings)
While the Braves lost game one of this series last night, they did score four runs (all earned) early off starter David Peterson. Marcell Ozuna accounted for half of that total with two solo home runs, his 25th and 26 home runs of the year. Ozuna became the fifth Braves player with at least 25 home runs.
Another member of that group is Austin Riley (29 home runs) and he is 5-for-18 with a home run against Tylor Megill. Eddie Rosario is 3-for-7 with seven runs batted in against Megill. Ozuna, Riley and Rosario are all capable of doing damage tonight and I have not even gotten to the Braves' two leading MVP candidates, Ronald Acuna Jr. and Matt Olson.
The Braves are averaging nearly six runs per game at home and are averaging nearly eight runs per game against the Mets this season. Tonight, I am counting on them to get four off Megill. On Aug. 11, Megill gave up six runs (five earned) on nine hits in 5 1/3 innings against the Braves. That was at Citi Field. On the road, Megill's ERA is 8.20 in 37 1/3 innings.
Megill has given up four earned runs in six of his last nine starts. He has a 1.70 WHIP, which means the Braves will likely have plenty of baserunners tonight. When you combine Megill's struggles on the road, limiting baserunners and a deep Braves lineup, it is easy to see why he may be in for a long night.
Pick: Tylor Megill Over 3.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-110 at DraftKings)
Julio Rodriguez was an easy choice for AL Player of the Week following the stretch he's coming off. He went 21-for-37 (.568) with two home runs, four doubles and a 1.417 OPS. Rodriguez got 17 of those hits over a stretch of four consecutive four-hit games. Rodriguez matched the total of the New York Yankees over that span.
His streak of four-hit games ended on Sunday, but he led off Sunday's game with a double. As a result, Rodriguez has recorded two total bases in each of his last five games. Tonight, he gets Mike Clevinger, against whom he is 3-for-5 with a home run. Rodriguez also has 43 extra-base hits, including 17 home runs, against right-handed pitching this season.
The Mariners' offense has been on fire of late and Rodriguez has been a huge reason why. Clevinger will be a solid test, but Rodriguez has done well against him in the past. Additionally, Seattle scored seven runs off Chicago's bullpen in five innings last night. Rodriguez may be able to take advantage if we still need a base from him late.
Pick: Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 Total Bases (-110 at DraftKings)
