On Tuesday, I faded Framber Valdez after his no-hitter last week. He struggled, but the Astros rallied for a 7-6 victory behind a ninth-inning grand slam by Kyle Tucker.
Last night, the Astros won, 8-2, and they'll go for the sweep this afternoon — and Dean Kremer may not be able to prevent it from happening.
The Cardinals and Rays have split the first two games of their three-game series. Wander Franco has been a factor in both games, and I expect that to remain the case in the rubber match.
Few hitters are as locked in as Freddie Freeman is right now. Freeman and the Dodgers are heading home to face Ty Blach and the Rockies. Blach has had Freeman's number in their careers, but will that remain the case tonight?
MLB Player Props For Thursday, Aug. 10
The new dimensions at Oriole Park at Camden Yards have made the park more favorable for pitchers, but that has not helped Dean Kremer this season. Kremer has a 3.70 ERA in 10 road starts, but his ERA jumps to 5.35 in 13 starts in his home ballpark.
His opposing batting average (.250) comes in lower at home, but he has struggled to keep the ball in the yard. Kremer has allowed 14 home runs at home this season, and he has also given up 14 home runs to left-handed hitters.
Today, he will have to deal with Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez. Tucker is 0-for-3 against Kremer, but he has homered in each of the first two games of this series. Alvarez is 2-for-5 against Kremer, but he went o-for-5 yesterday. I don't expect that to happen again today.
If Tucker and Alvarez don't get to Kremer, their teammates likely will. The Astros offense enters this game hot, scoring seven runs or more in three straight games and four of their last five.
Kremer also has a 5.88 ERA in day games and has allowed three earned runs or more in nine of his 13 starts at home this season. Against a hot Houston offense, there's a good chance that number rises to 10.
Pick: Dean Kremer Over 2.5 Earned Runs
After a cold July in which he hit .202, Wander Franco has regained his All-Star form of late. Since July 28, Franco has recorded a hit in 10 of his last 11 games while hitting .418 with five home runs and seven runs batted in.
That includes going 3-for-3 with a homer last night.
Franco has recorded two total bases in seven of his past 11 games. Tonight, he gets left-hander Matthew Liberatore, who he has never faced before. However, Franco is slashing .316/.389/.506 with six doubles and three home runs against left-handers this season.
As a switch-hitter, Franco will bat right-handed against Liberatore, and right-handed hitters have been mashing against the Cardinals starter this season. They're slashing .339/.414/.548 with 13 doubles, two triples, three home runs and 27 runs batted in against him.
Franco has recorded an extra-base hit in six games during his hot streak with the aforementioned home runs and one triple. However, he also has five multi-hit games in that span as well.
Two hits or one extra-base hit will give him two total bases. Against Liberatore, he may just have two hits with one of them going for extra bases.
Having to narrow this column down to three picks from 15 games (eight today) can be difficult, but I try to mix in a variety of different players.
I've backed Freddie Freeman a few times recently, and with how hot he's been, it doesn't make a ton of sense to fade him.
Over the last month, Freeman is hitting .433 with 11 doubles, one triple, six home runs, 20 runs batted in and a 1.262 OPS. In August, he's hitting .513 with seven doubles, two home runs, eight runs batted in and a 1.394 OPS.
In case you needed one more gaudy Freeman stat line, he's also 8-for-18 (.444) with a double against the Rockies this season.
However, Freeman has struggled against Blach thus far, going 0-for-8 against Blach in his career. Still, left-handed hitters are hitting .267 against Blach.
He also has made just two starts this season — his last two appearances — which totaled 9.2 innings. Blach likely will not pitch longer than five innings, and that's assuming the Dodgers don't chase him sooner.
With how hot Freeman has been, I'm expecting him to get his first hit off Blach tonight. That would give him at least one base and perhaps two if it goes for extra bases.
Freeman has recorded two total bases in eight of his last 10 games, and he's averaging 3.5 in that span. If you want a little more juice, you could also take him for two hits (+175), which he also has done in eight of the last 10 games.
Parlaying Franco and Freeman for two hits comes in at +628 at DraftKings as well.
