On Thursday, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook shocked the world by releasing MLB Rookie of the Year odds. Well, I don't see it making headlines or trending on Twitter, actually, but I was certainly shocked. I've personally never seen them posted before the season, nor has my esteemed colleague Michael Leboff.
2019 features the most exciting prospect to hit the show…maybe ever, though — Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
More sportsbooks are opening up around the country, and as a result, books are posting more options and posting things earlier than they have in the past. I guess that means we're lucky enough to be blessed with these ROY odds, though it remains to be seen if other sportsbooks will follow suit.
One thing to potentially be wary about is the fact that there's a decent chance someone not listed wins one or both of these awards. I suppose that's technically the case with other major awards, too, but sometimes rookies will just come out of nowhere.
Meanwhile, guys you expect to have big years may not even be called up to the majors for months. Most teams will be keeping their prospects in the minor leagues for at least the first few weeks of the season so they can gain an extra year of controlability on them.
Non-contending teams don't really have a ton of extra incentive to call up a great prospect that will help them win, either, so proceed with caution.
American League Rookie of the Year Odds
Much like the American League MVP odds, there is a big time favorite ahead of the group. Guerrero Jr. is hyped to the moon and there's been nothing to suggest he shouldn't be.
I don't live in Vegas and most of you readers don't either, so this advice may or may not help you. However, this list gives us something cool to discuss heading into the season and if you do get a chance to bet on these at some point in the next few weeks, here are some names you should consider.
Eloy Jimenez +300
Jimenez is certainly overshadowed by Guerrero Jr., but there are many similarities:
- Excellent hit tool with power to all fields
- Expected to be called up to the majors a few weeks into the season
- Playing for a mediocre/bad team
- Won't contribute much in the field or on the basepaths
I'll take the value of Jimenez at +300 over the hyped up Guerrero Jr. at -125.
Jesus Luzardo +2000
Thanks to the Athletics' ailing rotation, Jesus Luzardo has a chance to get an early call to the majors.
If all goes right, that would mean something like 25 starts — plenty good for this award. So far, Luzardo has looked very good in spring training and is showing why he's the best left-handed pitching prospect in baseball. At 20-1, he's certainly worth a shot.
National League Rookie of the Year Odds
In the National League, the newest Nationals outfield phenom is the favorite at +300. Victor Robles is set to play center field in Washington, with Juan Soto in left and Adam Eaton in right.
No Bryce Harper, but a great all-around outfield. Robles is the No. 4 prospect in baseball, but since he's already had a couple of major league stints, the Nationals don't need to worry about keeping him in the minors and getting an extra year of service time.
Here are a couple more value picks just in case.
Nick Senzel +1500
Of all the odds on either list, Nick Senzel's popped out the most to me. Though brought up as a 3rd baseman, the Cincinnati Reds have been playing him in center field this spring, as Eugenio Suarez is manning the hot corner.
Though the Reds are loaded with outfielders, Senzel is already considered the team's best center field option. Like many others, there's a decent chance he won't make the opening day roster thanks to service time concerns, but he's a terrific hitter and all-around athlete that should have shorter than 10-1 odds in my mind.
Luis Urias +2000
Like Robles, Luis Urias will be making the opening day roster. The San Diego Padres already called him up last year, and Urias is actually expected to play shortstop until Fernando Tatis Jr. is called up. After that, he's likely to switch over to 2nd base.
With a 70-grade hit tool (out of 80), Urias can flat rake. He doesn't have a ton of power, but is quietly one of the better prospects on either list and has an advantage over most thanks to his service time.
Prospect rankings via MLB.com
