Royals vs. Tigers Odds
| Royals Odds | -110 |
| Tigers Odds | -110 |
| Over/Under | 8 |
| Time | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
It’s not the most appealing game of Friday night, but it’s a fun one! The Detroit Tigers welcome the Kansas City Royals in a battle between two of the American League’s worst, as Daniel Lynch takes on Drew Hutchison.
I’m going to give you a same-game parlay for this matchup. Why? Because how else are going to watch this game intently without any action!
My approach is pretty simple when it comes to these same-game parlays. I follow a narrative of how I expect this game to turn out and put together a few legs to complement one another.
For the most part, if the game script plays out as expected, then the parlay should have a decent chance. I normally have an all-in approach where the payout will be big if the narrative comes to fruition.
With all that said, here’s how I’m looking to bet Royals-Tigers on Friday night.
The Parlay (+1347):
- Royals ML (-108)
- Michael Massey o1.5 TBs (+125)
- Nick Pratto to Record an RBI (+185)
- Bobby Witt Jr to Score a Run (+100)
Same-Game Parlay – Royals vs. Tigers
Royals ML
In a matchup between Lynch and Hutchison, I think there’s a pretty big edge to the road favorite here. Lynch has taken a step forward in his second season with expected indicators in the mid 4s.
Lynch has seen his barrel rate decrease and strikeout numbers jump slightly from his rookie year and he has quietly strung together a decent August with a sub-4 ERA. He’s faced the Tigers just once — three runs, two earned over four innings — but I expect a different outcome this time around.
It’s also important to note that Lynch has a 4.00 ERA on the road this season compared to a 5.47 ERA at Kauffman Stadium. And. well, he’s facing the Tigers offense.
Hutchison, meanwhile, has overperformed significantly in 2022. His expected ERA (5.09) is more than a run higher than his actual ERA (4.01) and his barrel rate has inched toward double-digits.
Hutchison has an abysmal 4.5 K-BB%, relying on pitching to contact for his outs. He generates a lot of base runners because of his control issues but has posted his best LOB% since 2016. That should regress negatively toward the mean in the final months.
The 32-year-old journeyman ranks in the bottom 15 percent of all pitchers in xBA, xSLG and whiff rate, as Friday has all the makings of a great offensive output from the Royals.
There is a significant edge in pitching here and I think the Royals should be heavier favorites despite being on the road. In the last 30 days, the Royals' pen ranks inside the top 10 in xFIP while the Tigers sit at 18th.
Plus, the Tigers' offense ranks dead last in wRC+ (78) and wOBA (.275). While KC’s offense isn’t much better, against Hutchison they should have no problem scoring runs. It’s also notable that Hutchison has a 4.35 ERA at Comerica Park compared to a 3.60 road ERA.
Michael Massey o1.5 TBs
In his very limited time as a big leaguer, Michael Massey has been as consistent as it gets. The lefty has a good eye at the plate and an on-base percentage of .350. He draws a favorable matchup against Hutchison and I think he can do some damage.
While Massey doesn’t have much power, of his 21 hits, he has five doubles and a home run against right-handed pitching. With a near 30 percent XBH rate and at plus money, we’re adding Massey o1.5 TBs to the parlay here.
Even if he doesn’t hit a double, I wouldn’t be shocked to see a multi-hit day out of the 24-year-old, especially considering Hutchison is opposite him likely twice.
It’s also important to note that while Hutchison is able to limit right-handed hitters at the plate (.239/.314/.316), lefties have had a field day (.285/.355/.482). That plays right into my hand with the Massey total bases prop.
Nick Pratto to Record an RBI
You could go with the obvious approach and back Bobby Witt Jr. or Salvador Perez to record an RBI here, but I’m going with the higher odds in Nick Pratto, who should be hitting cleanup on Friday night.
I touched on this briefly in the last section, but Hutchison struggles against lefties at the plate. I think the Royals should fill the bases and that’ll give plenty of RBI opportunities to the middle of the lineup.
The Tigers could pitch around Perez — he’s the best hitter on the team — but they’ll go after Pratto. And that’s exactly what I want.
Over his last six games, Pratto has nine hits and 10 RBI across 25 at-bats. He’s playing much better after an incredibly slow start to the season and has another favorable matchup on Friday night.
Bobby Witt Jr to Score a Run
Bobby Witt Jr. has been a bright spot in an otherwise down season for KC and is one of the best Royals hitters against right-handed pitching.
Witt slashes .258/.301/.437 against right-handed pitching with 35 extra-base hits. Even with a low walk rate, Witt should fare well against Hutchison where command is a constant issue. And if he leaves the ball over the plate, Witt has the capability to park it in the bleachers.
What’s also important here, and why I like him to score a run, is his speed. Witt is in the top 1 percent of all MLB in sprint speed and has 26 stolen bases on the year. If he gets on base, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Royals are aggressive against Hutchison.
Plus, if the ball hits the gap and Witt is on first, he should score with ease. What’s more perfect than a Pratto double that scores Witt Jr? Manifest it!
