Pirates vs Reds Odds
| Pirates Odds | +118 |
| Reds Odds | -138 |
| Over/Under | 9 (-122/+110) |
| Time | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | BSOH |
| Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
On Monday we have the first matchup of this four-game NL Central intradivisional series with the Cincinnati Reds hosting the Pittsburgh Pirates. This game is the 13th meeting between these two clubs this season, with the Reds winning seven of the first 12 matchups (58%).
Below, I will walk through a few picks we will parlay together for a higher payout. When creating a “same-game parlay,” my approach is all or nothing.
While that statement is sort of like “the sky is blue,” let me explain. In my opinion, it’s essential that we find plays that have a strong correlation with each other, as we do not get anything for coming close in a parlay.
If we have multiple plays that have a strong correlation with each other, then we could swing and miss on all of them, and that’s OK. There’s absolutely no difference between going 0-for-3 or 2-for-3 on a parlay.
That said, my goal in creating these parlays is to grab plays that increase the probability of the other plays hitting. For example, if I bet on a bunch of players on one team to generate runs, then it’s more likely that their team would also win that game.
Following this mold, I have three plays below for this contest between the Pirates and the Reds. Let’s take a look at the selections.
The Parlay (+532):
- Cincinnati Reds ML (-138)
- Jake Fraley – Record a Run (-145)
- TJ Friedl – Record an RBI (+160)
Same-Game Parlay – Pirates vs Reds
Cincinnati Reds ML
The main reason we are backing Cincinnati in this game is because of Pittsburgh's projected starting pitcher: right-hander Bryse Wilson. Through 20 pitching appearances this season, Wilson is 2-8 with a 6.11 ERA and 1.49 WHIP.
While those stats are horrible, his metrics are just as bad. This year, Wilson possesses a .365 xwOBA, .303 xBA, and .492 xSLG, so positive regression should not be a concern.
Entering this game in poor form, we should continue to fade Wilson. Over his last five starts, he is 0-2 with a 6.85 ERA and 1.45 WHIP.
Following Wilson is one of the weaker bullpens in baseball. Since August 1, the Pirates' relief pitching ranks just 26th in the league in ERA, 26th in WHIP, 19th in BA, 18th in wOBA, and 20th in FIP.
Losing 16 of their last 20 games (80%), we should expect Pittsburgh's poor season to continue in this matchup.
Jake Fraley – Record a Run
If we are fading Pittsburgh's pitching staff and backing the Reds to win the game, then we obviously need them to score runs.
Enter Jake Fraley.
Through 51 games this season, Cincinnati's outfielder has been one of the better hitters on this club. Producing a .253 BA, .494 SLG, and .837 OPS, we should expect Fraley to keep it rolling against Wilson and the Pirates.
When facing right-handed pitchers, Fraley's numbers explode to a .273/.538/.904 slash line. Based on his metrics, we should not expect any regression from him as he boasts a .342 xwOBA, .252 xBA, and .436 xSLG.
Projected to hit in the two-spot, Fraley should get plenty of opportunities to cross the plate. With him recording eight runs over his last 11 games, we should expect him to do just that.
TJ Friedl – Record an RBI
If we are backing Fraley to record a run, then we obviously need someone to hit him in (unless he homers). We are going to go a few spots down the batting order and target another left-handed hitter to help us out, TJ Friedl.
Like Fraley, Friedl has had a solid season at the dish when given opportunities. Through 51 games, he possesses a .264 BA, .472 SLG, and .783 OPS.
While Friedl has faced Wilson only three times, he is 1-3 with a home run. Recording an RBI in each of his last three games, look for Friedl to continue to produce against this poor pitching staff.
