Tigers vs Orioles Odds
| Tigers Odds | +180 |
| Orioles Odds | -215 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 (-102/-120) |
| Time | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
Time is starting to run out for the Baltimore Orioles, who sit four games back from the last wild card spot with just a few weeks left in the campaign. They'll look to gain some ground on Monday against the Detroit Tigers.
Below, I will walk through a few picks we will parlay together for a higher payout. When creating a same-game parlay, my approach is all or nothing.
While that statement is sort of like “the sky is blue,” let me explain. In my opinion, it’s essential that we find plays that have a strong correlation with each other, as we do not get anything for coming close in a parlay.
If we have multiple plays that have a strong correlation with each other, then we could swing and miss on all of them, and that’s OK. There’s absolutely no difference between going 0-for-3 or 2-for-3 on a parlay.
That said, my goal in creating these parlays is to grab plays that increase the probability of the other plays hitting. For example, if I bet on a bunch of players on one team to generate runs, then it’s more likely that their team would also win that game.
Following this mold, I have three plays below for this contest between the Tigers and the Orioles. Let’s take a look at the selections.
The Parlay (+511):
- Baltimore Orioles -1.5 (+102)
- Austin Hays – Record a Run (-135)
- Adley Rutschman – Record an RBI (+155)
Same-Game Parlay – Tigers vs Orioles
Baltimore Orioles -1.5
Taking the mound for the Orioles in this game is right-hander Tyler Wells. Through 22 starts this season, he is 7-6 with a 3.93 ERA and 1.10 WHIP.
In his two starts since returning from his oblique injury, Baltimore has been cautious with Wells. He has not gone deeper than four innings in either of those two outings but has looked sharp nonetheless.
We should expect the restrictions to come off this game as time is running out for this team and Wells has been one of their better starting pitchers. That being said, the main reason we are backing the Orioles in this game is because of Detroit's projected starting pitcher, left-hander Tyler Alexander.
Through 23 pitching appearances this season, Alexander is 3-10 with a 5.35 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. While It has been a tough season for the left-hander, he enters this game in particularly poor form, going 0-3 with a 10.06 ERA and 1.82 WHIP over his last four starts.
The Tigers lost all four of those games and failed to cover the run line in three of them. This slide was predictable based on Alexander's metrics this season, including his .355 xwOBA, .287 xBA, and .496 xSLG.
Following Alexander is one of the worst bullpens in baseball. Since August 1, Detroit's relief pitching ranks just 22nd in the league in ERA, 23rd in WHIP, 23rd in BA, 20th in SLG and 20th in wOBA.
Austin Hays – Record a Run
If we are fading Detroit's pitching staff and backing the Orioles to win the game, then we obviously need them to score runs.
Enter Austin Hays.
Projected to hit in the leadoff spot, Hays should get plenty of opportunities to get on base. He has had a solid season, posting a .249 BA, .413 SLG and .718 OPS.
However, this is a particularly good matchup for Hays. Over the past three seasons, his numbers jump by about 15% when facing left-handed pitching, producing a .282/.486/.814 slash line.
Through four career plate appearances against Alexander, Hays is 1-for-4 with a double. Collecting six hits over the last four games he has started, Hays should be able to keep it going in this contest.
Adley Rutschman – Record an RBI
If we are backing Hays to record a run, then we obviously need someone to hit him in (unless he homers). There is perhaps no better candidate than the guy who is projected to hit directly behind him in the batting order, Adley Rutschman.
He has been in great form since the beginning of September, recording 17 hits over his last 14 games. Across that stretch, he has also produced 10 RBI.
The rookie catcher seems to love playing at Camden Yards, producing a .280/.453/.870 slash line at home this season. Based on his metrics, Rustschman should be able to close the season strong as he boasts a .352 xwOBA, .255 xBA, and .429 xSLG.
