Braves vs Nationals Odds
| Braves Odds | -260 |
| Nationals Odds | +215 |
| Over/Under | 9 (-120/-102) |
| Time | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
Tonight features the first matchup of this three-game NL East intradivisional series with the Washington Nationals hosting the Atlanta Braves. This contest is the 16th meeting between these two clubs with the Braves winning 11 of the first 15 matchups.
Below, I will walk through a few picks we will parlay together for a higher payout. When creating a same-game parlay, my approach is all or nothing.
While that statement is sort of like “the sky is blue,” let me explain. In my opinion, it’s essential that we find plays that have a strong correlation with each other, as we do not get anything for coming close in a parlay.
If we have multiple plays that have a strong correlation with each other, then we could swing and miss on all of them, and that’s okay. There’s absolutely no difference between going 0-for-3 or 2-for-3 on a parlay.
That said, my goal in creating these parlays is to grab plays that increase the probability of the other plays hitting. For example, if I bet on a bunch of players on one team to generate runs, then it’s more likely that their team would also win that game.
Following this mold, I have three plays below for this contest between the Braves and Nationals. Let’s take a look at the selections.
The Parlay (+410):
- Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-154)
- William Contreras – Record a Run (-110)
- Eddie Rosario – Record an RBI (+130)
Same Game Parlay – Braves vs Nationals
Atlanta Braves -1.5
As I mentioned above, the Braves have won 11 of the 15 games between these two clubs this season (73%). Of those 11 wins, they have covered the runline eight times (73%).
We should expect this domination to continue as right-hander Cory Abbott is slated to take the mound for Washington. Through 14 appearances this season, Abbott is 0-3 with a 4.85 ERA and 1.38 WHIP.
While he keeps bouncing back between the rotation and bullpen, his last start came against the Braves. In that game, Atlanta won and covered as Abbott got shelled.
After allowing four runs on six hits through four innings in that outing, we should expect Abbott to struggle once again. He has struggled with the long ball this season as he possesses a .403 xSLG.
This should be a big problem against a powerful Atlanta lineup. Since August 1st, the Braves rank fourth in the league in BA, second in SLG, third in OPS, and third in wOBA when facing right-handed pitching.
Meanwhile, right-handed rookie Bryce Elder is taking the mound for Atlanta. He has been impressive thus far, boasting a 3.38 ERA through eight appearances.
His latest start came against the Nationals, a game in which he allowed just one run on four hits through five and two-thirds innings. Following Elder is one of the stronger bullpens in baseball.
Since the beginning of August, Atlanta's relief pitching ranks fourth in the league in ERA, sixth in WHIP, fifth in BA, fifth in SLG, fifth in wOBA, and eighth in FIP.
William Contreras – Record a Run
If we are fading Abbott and backing the Braves to win the game, then we obviously need them to score runs.
Enter William Contreras.
Overshadowed by the fact that this entire Braves lineup is outstanding, Contreras has put together a very strong season. Through 89 games, he boasts a .276 BA, .513 SLG, and .860 OPS.
Additionally, Contreras enters this game in strong form as he has collected 11 hits and six runs over his last 10 games. We should expect this strong play to continue against Abbott.
In two career plate appearances against Abbott, Contreras is 1-1 with a single and a walk. We are getting value in this number because his numbers dip when facing right-handed pitching relative to left-handers.
However, his splits against right-handers are still solid as he has posted a .247 BA, .479 SLG, and .788 OPS.
Eddie Rosario – Record an RBI
If we are backing Contreras to record a run, then we obviously need someone to hit him in (unless he homers). We are going to look at the guy who hits directly behind Contreras in the batting order, Eddie Rosario.
While it has not been Rosario's strongest season, he has started to turn it around recently. Currently, he rides a four-game hit streak with a homer and two doubles over that stretch.
We should expect this to continue against Abbott, a pitcher he is 1-2 against in his career. When facing right-handed pitching this season, Rosario's numbers jump by approximately 18%.
